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Weather guide Monday 22nd to Sunday 28th April 2013

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TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Some rain at times, becoming mild mid week; very cool and showery from Friday with potentially damaging frosts next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Last week saw strong winds with some rain at times, but amounts of rain were generally small. April is shaping up to be a dry month for the Midlands, and with quite small amounts of rain likely in the coming week again here. It was quite warm for the Midlands to mid week, mild rather than warm for West Wales, then we all cooled off on Thursday, and Friday night saw a widespread air frost, but at least the week ended bright and dry. Another rather changeable week with some rain and showers about, mild mid week, especially for the Mdlands, but then the week ends on a very cool and showery note with sharp night frosts making an unwelcome return.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Rain and drizzle for West Wales this Sunday afternoon, and a cloudy afternoon for the Midlands with a little rain later. Skies clear overnight with a ground frost in places. A rather unsettled start to the working week, Monday dawns dry but quickly clouding over for West Wales as the next Atlantic fronts arrive. A cool and rather wet day for West Wales on Monday, most of the rain and drizzle fairly light though, but a very unpleasant, damp and breezy day. Light rain and drizzle then gets to the Midlands by mid afternoon after a bright start to the day here. Although we will be within a warm sector by Monday evening, this mildness will not be apparent through the daytime, what with the dampness and cool westerly breeze at the surface, so maxima of just 10 to 12c will be during the early evening. The weakening cold front will be strung out over Wales and the Midlands on Monday night, so a rather cloudy night with drizzle in places, but it should have dried up by dawn on Tuesday. High pressure close by to our south on Tuesday but still a weak front legacy over the UK, so a rather cloudy but dry day, bar the odd spot of drizzle for West Wales. It could well brighten in the afternoon over the Midlands, and if so pleasantly mild reaching 17c locally, however for cloudier West Wales highs just 12 to 15c, but with much less of a breeze during Tuesday. [/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][attachment=168711:PPVG89 Mon cool some rain.png][attachment=168712:PPVJ89 Tue wk front r cloudy milder.png][attachment=168713:ecmt850.072 dry r cloudy mild Tue to Wed.png][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Synoptic charts becoming difficult to decipher as early as Wednesday this week, but the trend will be for the relatively mild air to be pushed away to our south by Thursday, and with some quite wet weather possible in the transition process, with a slow moving frontal zone likely to linger over Wales and the Midlands well into Thursday. High pressure keeps much of Wednesday dry for the south, but a slow moving cold front could well bring rain to Wales through Wednesday afternoon, although this is not yet 'nailed' and we could get another mostly dry day instead? In any case, the Midlands more likely to stay dry for most of Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday dependent on the progress of the cold front, so if the Midlands manages to stay dry and bright, then a rather warm day in prospect with highs up to a rather warm 18c, but conversely, should West Wales have the cloudy, damp day that seems likely, a cool 11 or 12c only here. If Wednesday was difficult to forecast, then Thursday is little more than guesswork! Slack pressure on Thursday so light winds look almost guaranteed, if not the other elements of the days weather which could be wet or dry! We will have the slow moving front from Wednesday to contend with, this lying somewhere over southern Britain, but it is difficult to tell just how active it will be at this stage, as we also have a ridge of high pressure over central UK. It does though look like the mild air will have been displaced south by Thursday, and where (if) it turns out wet then a very cool day of highs below 10c.[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][attachment=168714:PPVL89 changes mild but perhaps wet later.png][attachment=168715:metslp.96 CF Wales Wed.png][attachment=168717:h850t850eu CF into mild Wed.png][attachment=168718:PPVO89 Thu weakenig front Mids.png][attachment=168719:ecmt850.120 cool down Thu R after front.png][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Things seem more sorted out for the end of the week perversely, with high pressure out over the Atlantic and low pressure over the Continent to our east, this means a cool, very cool even, northerly flow for Friday and next weekend. The last of any rain will clear on Thursday night with clear spells and a ground frost developing, lows getting down towards zero. A bright start to Friday, but showers will develop, these becoming heavy with hail and thunder in places, more likely for the Midlands. Disappointing highs between 9 and 11c on Friday in spite of the sunny intervals. Very cool upper air for the time of year is over the UK next Saturday (-6c at 5000 feet), so a frosty dawn on Saturday (6am if you are up), given clear spells on Friday night. Another day of sunny intervals and heavy showers, some with hail again, and a very cool day, maxima struggling to even reach doubles figures 10c. It is possible we could be under a cold ridge next Saturday night, which would be an ideal set up for a notably cold late April night, -5c not out of the question, and a damaging frost for gardeners to watch out for. However, that is a week away and it may be somewhat different come the time. The cool, rather unsettled theme looks like continuing into the start of May, with the heat going to Eastern Europe unfortunately![/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][attachment=168720:h850t850eu cool showery Fri.png][attachment=168721:ecmt850.144 cool showery Sat.png][attachment=168722:ecmt850.168 Sun cold R notable late frost poss.png][attachment=168723:ukmintemp exceptionally cold night under R Sun possible.png][attachment=168724:t850Caerdydd~-~Cardiff.png][attachment=168725:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
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