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Weather guide Monday 18th to Sunday 24th February 2013 (West Wales and the Midlands specific)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Mostly dry with sunny spells; quite mild at first, turning much colder with hard frosts from mid week,[/b][/size][/font]
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Most of us have enjoyed the mild and at times bright spell of late, quite a contrast to the very cold and snowy picture over much of the Midlands until Wednesday. Temperatures have been as high as 10c widely, and even 11c in places. Still on the mild side early in the coming week, but it turns colder mid week, as a bitter easterly flow sets up. It looks as though high pressure will position close enough to our north to prevent showers from forming, but expect some hard frosts by night. [/size][/font]
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Monday and Tuesday see a continuation of the rather mild and dry weather with sunny spells, temperatures up to 8 or 9c, after slight overnight frosts and fog in places, this more especially for the Midlands where the breeze is lighter. On Wednesday things start to change as our mild high is absorbed into an intensifying cold high over Scandinavia. The colder air is introduced by a weak cold front from the east, so after a slight frost in places, Wednesday sees a band of cloud with spots of rain in places being replaced in the aftenoon by brighter, colder weather. SW Wales may hang on to the mild air until evening, temperatures reaching 8c for Pembrokeshire but only 4c fo the Midlands.[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
[attachment=161362:PPVG89 Mon mild H dry.png][attachment=161363:PPVK89 week CF becomes colder Wed.png][attachment=161364:ecmt850.096 Wed Scand H cold arrives.png][attachment=161365:h850t850eu colder air arrives Wed.png][/size][/font]
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With a great band of high pressure forming all the way from Ireland to Russia, Thursday to Sunday sees cold, even very cold air, spreading west over all of Wales and England. Prior to this weekend, some of the models were suggesting that this could be quite a snowy spell in places, as well as a bitterly cold one by the end of the week, however things have now trended to a largely dry picture with high pressure close to Scotland damping down atmospheric instability and therefore largely inhibiting snow showers from forming. Pressure over Wales and the Midlands remains above 1020mbar, and with no troughs apparent in the easterly flow, few places will see any snow showers this week. It is conceivable that the Midlands may catch a few light flurries on Friday or over the weekend, but this will not amount to anything really, and would just be be flakes blowing about in the wind. For West Wales, Friday and the weekend is expected to be cold, breezy and bright with good sunny spells, while the Midlands will see more of a cloud sheet spreading over at times, but this being the flat Stratocumulus layers rather than proper shower producing Cumulonimbus clouds. With clear skies most likely over Wales, this is where the hardest frosts are likely, down to -6c in places here, but still penetrating frosts everywhere with the keen NE wind. Maxima by day from Thursday to Sunday largely in the 2 to 4c range, although parts of Pembrokeshire, which are more sheltered from the NE winds, may fare better reaching 6c in places here. This compares with the average late February figures of around 8c.[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
[attachment=161366:h850t850eu cold dry breezy Thu.png][attachment=161367:metslp.120 v cold dry Thu ese flow.png][attachment=161368:h850t850eu cold m dry weekend.png][attachment=161369:ecmt850.168 cold dry weekend.png][attachment=161370:mgram_Birmingham dry cold high presure from Wed.png][attachment=161371:mgram_Cardiff dry cold high pr from Wed.png][attachment=161372:PN_D5_TT_TT_P1_NT_UV_UU_VV_METE_12000_Birmingham.png][attachment=161373:PN_D5_TT_TT_P1_NT_UV_UU_VV_METE_12000_Cardiff.png][/size][/font]
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