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Weather prospects for west Wales and the Midlands New Year's Eve to Saturday 6th January 2013

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TonyH

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[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]More rain and wind at first, then becoming mostly dry and mild [/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The floods in the Midlands receded through the past week, as rainfall lessened, however there was still a substantial 40mm during the past week at Rugby. West Wales has had another very wet week with just over 3 inches (77mm) falling back home at Llanwnnen. All this rain has made 2012 one of the wettest years on record, Llanwnnen needs 2 inches more rain in the final two days to beat 2008 although this quantity is looking very unlikely, while for Warwickshire 2012 is probably the wettest year since 1966. We had a Green Christmas with some heavy showers and maxima around 8c. During Friday night the temperature remained above 10c over the Midlands. The New Year will see a welcome change to much drier weather, and it is also going to become mild again. Still no sign of real cold or snow on the horizon.[/size][/font]


[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Bright and breezy on Sunday with sunny intervals and showers these more especially for west Wales as usual, the chance of hail too. Cloud increases later this afternoon for west Wales as the next depression heads in, this bringing rain to all parts this evening. A mild and windy night with rain at times, some heavy for west Wales. Further fronts move across through Monday so further rain at times, possibly heavy in places, although a better chance of some dry intervals as we go through the afternoon. A mild and windy day, gale gusts possible in the morning, maxima up to around 10c. It becomes clearer and colder on Monday night with a ground frost, showers largely restricted to western coasts, so not too bad for New Year revellers!
[attachment=150465:PPVG89 rain showers Mon.png]


A chilly NW air stream for New Year's Day, sunny spells and some showers about, again mainly for west Wales where there could be hail.With maxima of only 6c Tuesday would be the coolest day for over a fortnight. A ridge of high pressure then gives a slight frost for Tuesday night as winds drop off, temperatures managing around zero. The rest of the week is influenced by quite an intense high pressure building over France, hence the largely dry outlook at long last! Not quite a dry picture for Wednesday however, as there are more, albeit weak, fronts coming over the top of this high, bringing cloud and some rain or drizzle in places, but none of the really wet weather such as we have experienced through December. A keen westerly breeze on Wednesday making it feel rather cold although maxima are close to the January average at 7c.
[attachment=150466:PPVJ89 r cold some showers Tue.png][attachment=150467:ecmt850.072 Tue night R frosty.png][attachment=150468:PPVL89 Wed weak WF.png][attachment=150470:h850t850eu weakk fronts some rain after frost wed.png]

High pressure proper by Thursday with a mild SW flow by then too, although there is likely to be a lot of cloud and only a few sunny intervals, highs of 10 or 11c. On Friday, the by now rather intense high is close to southern England, and we may have barometer readings up to 1040mbar, a level not reached since May! Needless to say another dry day, and with more in the way of sunny spells, and mild again maxima up to 10c, so a lovely day (provided the cloud shifts)! There could be enough cloud breaks on Friday night for a touch of frost in places.
[attachment=150471:met.120 Thu dry mild cloudy.png][attachment=150472:h850t850eu HIGH pressure.png]

The dry weather expected to last for most if not all of the weekend too, with high pressure close by to the SE. Variable cloud but with some sunshine at times, and the chance of a ground frost given sufficient cloud breaks overnight. Fairly mild with maxima of 8 to 10c. Just the possibility that fronts will encroach close enough for some rain into west Wales later on Sunday, but this may hold off until overnight.
[attachment=150473:ecmt850.168 mild mainly dry weekend.png][/size][/font]
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No ground frosts for west Wales early week as too much cloud and breeze.

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Drizzle quite persistent at times in parts of SW Wales even on Friday, so certainly no dry spell here!

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