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Weather guide Monday 29th October to Sunday 4th November (comparing west Wales with the Midland's)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Cool with spells of rain, heavy at times mid week onwards, especially over west Wales[/b]


West Wales experienced some warm Autumn sunny intervals on Wednesday with highs of 17c here - it may well be the last time it gets this mild until next Spring. The Midlands was also in the very mild air, but never got above 14c last week, the NE breeze coming off the North Sea kept it cloudy and sometimes misty with drizzle. However, we all experienced very mild nights staying above 11c until mid week. Much colder since Friday, and in total contrast a hard frost on Saturday morning, down to -4c at Llanwnnen, not as cold as the amazing -6c recorded here in October 2010 though! Hardly any rain last week, but a good dose to come this week, especially for west Wales, where the GFS model is going for 2 to 4 inches to fall in the next 7 days, and so the risk of localised rather than widespread flooding here.
[attachment=143012:Rtavn18018 wet week.png]


The more unsettled spell has already begun with further rain at times the rest of Sunday and tonight, most only light over the Midlands, but heavy at times for west Wales, quite a good example of the rain shadow effect, with the Welsh hills sucking out much of the moisture. Monday starts damp and cloudy but should see some sunny intervals during the afternoon with just the odd light shower about. Rather cool maxima 10 to 12c. The chance of a ground frost in places on Monday night where the cloud clears sufficiently. On Tuesday the fronts should just about be passing far enough north to keep it generally dry with sunny intervals, although drizzle may arrive by evening into west Wales. Although dry, Tuesday will be a cool and breezy day, temperatures 10c at best.
[attachment=143010:PPVJ89 m dry Tue.png]
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By Wednesday things are turning very unsettled as low pressure moves into Scotland. A wet day for west Wales, periods of rain, heavy at times, and with a fresh to strong SW wind. A cloudy day for the Midlands too but the worst of the rain may hold off until late afternoon or evening. Feeling cool again, maxima just 9 to 11c. The rain should be clearing west Wales during Wednesday evening, but hangs around well into the night for the Midlands. Still some blustery showers affecting west Wales through the night . The same low then sticks close to Scotland through both Thursday and Friday, which will be cool, even very cool, quite windy and showery days. The worst of the showers over Wales but a few getting into the Midlands too. These will be heavy with hail at times, especially again for west Wales, but with sunny intervals between. Temperatures really struggling in the chill west to NW wind, only reaching between 8 and 10c, decidely cool for the start of November, in fact cold enough for the showers to be turning wintry over the hills of Wales and the north Midlands. Strong suggestions in the models that a secondary low feature will track across southern Wales and England during Friday, which would bring a longer spell of rain, lasting 4 to 6 hours, and perhaps with sleet over high ground, at some stage during the day. If the wind drops off enough by night late in the week, then ground frosts will readily form during any clear spells.
[attachment=143011:PPVL89 wet windy Wed.png][attachment=143013:ukprec wet Wed aft.png][attachment=143014:ecmt850.096 rain showers Wed night.png][attachment=143015:h850t850eu cool showery west Thu.png][attachment=143016:ecmt850.144 sec low whistles through Fri.png][attachment=143017:h850t850eu sec L Fri.png]

Even into next weekend it remains unsettled and cool, with low pressure over or close to northern Britain. Further showers or longer spells of rain, with sunny intervals between, more especially for the Midlands.
[attachment=143018:ecmt850.192 cool unsettled weekend.png][attachment=143019:ecmt850.192 cool unsettled weekend.png]
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