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Weather guide for the west Wales and central Midlands for the week: Monday 22nd to Sunday 28th October 2012

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: [/b]
[b][b]Mostly dry and very mild; much colder by Friday and next weekend[/b][/b]


Quite a wet week gone, 2 inches of rain for Llanwnnen, although under an inch for Coventry. Temperatures around the average last week, each day reaching between 12 and 15c here, although the Midlands reached a mild 16c on Wednesday and Thursday, while parts of west Wales also managed 16c on Saturday (except the Lampeter area!). Even warmer into the new week as we get a drag of very mild Continental air coming up from the SE. Temperatures will widely get into the low 60's f, the highest of the month, and quite likely the last time we reach such dizzy heights until next Spring! A big drop in temperatures come next weekend when maxima will be almost 10c colder than the start of this week, say 8c rather than 18c! The really cold air is however missing the UK, this going to our north-east and bringing the first notable snowfalls of Autumn to Scandinavia by next weekend.

Dense fog on the Bablake School, Coventry webcam this morning, and a ground frost here in west Wales- all very Autumnal. A lovely mild and sunny afternoon for us in west Wales, the fog over parts of the Midlands clearing to a bright afternoon (hopefully). Clouding over from the east overnight, so frost and fog is unlikely Monday morning. This is a warm front introducing the very mild air, but running into high pressure centred over Scandinavia, so not producing much in the way of rain. Mainly cloudy and damp on Monday, light rain and drizzle in places. Very mild air, but this only being realised should the sun break through and this not likely further west. Maxima on Monday ranging from 14c in cloudier west Wales to perhaps 16c where it brightens later over the Midlands.
[attachment=142349:brack0a mild damp places Mon.gif]

With the weak front lying over west Wales by Monday night, a damp one here, and for many places a foggy night, but with the mild air mass now over us no frost. With high pressure over northern Britain and low pressure west of Iberia a very mild, slack ESE drift of air over England and Wales for Tuesday and Wednesday. Were this September then this set up could well produce 80f and sunshine, however we are now at the end of October and the power of the sun is much declined. The potential is certainly there for warmth even this late on, and 70f has occurred into November in the past, however such warmth depends very much on the cloud amounts this week (and very difficult to predict). The drift is off the near Continent from between east and SE which suggests better chances of sunny spells for west Wales compared with the Midlands, however most of us should see at least some pleasant and warm sunny spells on Tuesday or Wednesday. Where it remains largely cloudy temperatures pinned no higher then 15c, but given several hours of afternoon sunshine 18c is a more likely figure, these higher readings more expected over south- west Wales - some 5c above average for the end of October. Another ingredient in the mix for mid week, with light winds and humid air, is that given any clear intervals by night, thick fog will form and last well into the mornings, so Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will see thick fog in places, but certainly no frost, temperatures not falling lower than 8c.
[attachment=142350:brack1a v mild variable cloud Tue.gif][attachment=142351:Rtavn601 dry v mild Tue potentially warm.png][attachment=142353:Rtavn6017 potetially bright and warm Tue.png][attachment=142352:Recm722 v mild dry mid week.gif]

Changes start on Thursday with the high pressure pulling away towards Greenland, and starting to open up the floodgates for much colder northerlies. However the mild air just about hangs on for the south on Thursday, which will be another mostly dry, even bright day, although cooler with maxima between 12 and 14c. The cold front moves down from the north later on Thursday, bringing cloud and a few showers, and feeling much fresher by Thursday night. By Friday we are in a deep flow of cool Arctic air, originating virtually from the polar region. There may be a legacy of rain over SW Wales at first on Friday should the cold front pep up which some models are going for, but then a generally dry but very cool spell. This will by no means be a cold 'blast' such as we would be getting were we in December, however a very noticeable cool down especially following on from the mild weather of mid week. This very cool air is being driven down between a large low over Scandinavia, so plenty of early snowfall for them, and high to our north-west, it is though much moderated by our surrounding seas that are still quite warm in October. Therefore, not anticipating that it will be cold enough for any wintriness this far south, but we will certainly feel the chill Friday and over next weekend and with frosty nights. Mostly dry still into the weekend, just the chance of an isolated shower getting down, but if these occur most likely rain only, although the highest hills of Wales would be seeing sleet or snow showers. Sunny spells, but with a chill north to NE breeze next weekend and overnight frosts for many places, down as low as -3c in more prone spots such as Llanwnnen - this being quite a hard frost so early in the season, but probably too much breeze for much in the way of fog to form. By day, very cool for the end of October, maxima only 7 to 9c, so 10c colder than mid week! Signs are that is will stay on the cool side into the start of November too.
[attachment=142354:brack4 mild south Thu H Gr.gif][attachment=142355:Recm1202 big cool off Fri.gif][attachment=142356:Rukm1441 v cool NE Fri.gif][attachment=142357:Recm1682 v cool m dry weekend frosty nights.gif]
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