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Weather Guide Monday 15th To Sunday 21st October 2012

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Becoming very unsettled, rain or showers, heavy at times; rather cool. Milder weekend.[/b]

The Lampeter area still has not reached 60f (16c) this October which is most unusual, a very cool start to the month - last year we reached almost 80f (27c) on the October 1st! Localised flooding for parts of Wales last Thursday, including Cardigan where over an inch of rain fell during the afternoon. The Aberystwyth area had almost an inch falling from frequent heavy showers on Saturday. Another disturbed week to come and no doubt some further high rainfall totals and localised flooding. The 60f barrier unlikely to be reached again over west Wales this week, which will be another rather cool one overall, although frost is unlikely after tonight.

Many of us had a frost this morning, down below -1c here in Llanwnnen and 0c at Rugby. The Midlands should have a dry bright Sunday but west Wales seeing some showery rain during the afternoon. Just the chance of an isolated shower over the west Midlands too this afternoon. Any remaining showers dying out overnight with clearing skies and a ground frost again, apart from SW Wales where it stays generally cloudy and damp. Clouding over for most parts Monday morning with a little drizzle in places, it may though brighten over the Midlands in the afternoon, but then a developing low moving into Ireland brings rain and freshening winds into west Wales late in the afternoon and the Midlands during Monday evening, the rain soon clearing overnight. During Tuesday one low is moving away over Scotland with the next approaching Ireland, so a between systems kind of day, plenty of cloud probably, though perhaps brighter for the Midlands. Mostly dry on Tuesday apart from some drizzle at times for west Wales. As with Monday another rather cool day maxima 12 to 14c.
[attachment=141662:brack1 Mon night L brings rain through.gif]

Wednesday to Thursday is a potentially very wet spell during which localised flooding will occur in some areas, although hard to pin details on exactly where and when the worst of the rain will fall. On Wednesday a fairly deep low is over or close to Ireland with some fresh to strong south to SW winds ahead of it. It looks as though there will be two main spells of rain, one early Wednesday and one late Wednesday into Thursday, some of this rain very heavy indeed, and although the timings are subject to change, some areas will receive over an inch with localised flooding. Even between the main rain areas there will be blustery showers. Wednesday and Thursday continue the cool theme, and where it stays wettest it will be especially cool and only reach 10 or 11c.
[attachment=141663:brack2 LDL Ire rheavy rain potential Wed.gif][attachment=141664:brack2a L Ire rain wind Wed.gif][attachment=141665:Recm722 new L W Ire Wed wet windy.gif][attachment=141666:Rtavn904 wet Wed.png][attachment=141667:Rukm961wetvspell Wed to Thu.gif][attachment=141668:Recm1202 rain or showers Thu.gif]

Friday still sees low pressure close by so further showers and possibly longer spells of rain, and temperatures a little below the mid October average, reaching 12 to 14c. Subtle differences in the pressure patterns next weekend, the lows look like being further west and allowing high pressure over the continent to influence our weather, so certainly looking milder for next weekend and perhaps even drier. West Wales still subject to weak fronts moving up bringing some rain or drizzle at times next weekend, but for the Midlands, with southerly winds, a much drier picture with temperatures perhaps nudging into the low 60's by next Sunday- a question mark as to whether west Wales will get this mild though? The warmer theme looks like continuing as we then near the end of October, so a good chance of hitting 60f even at Lampeter before the month end!
[attachment=141670:Recm1442 showery Fri.gif][attachment=141671:Rtavn1321 cool unsettled Fri.png][attachment=141672:Recm1682 L W H E milder poss drier weekend.gif][attachment=141673:Rtavn1802 milder southerly flow drier weekend.png]
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