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First Look At Autumn 2012 And The Winter Ahead Part 3

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Zenarcher

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To view part 2 you can click [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4469-very-early-first-look-at-winter-20122013-part-2/"]here[/url].

[b]Rainfall,[/b]

[b]October:[/b] It looks like Northern parts of the UK will experience lower than average rainfall meanwhile Southern parts will get more rainfall.

[b]November:[/b] It is looking mainly average for most of the UK but again Northern parts may see lower rainfall.

[b]December: [/b]The below average rainfall trend continues from the Autumn and into the first part of the winter with most area's getting below average.

[b]January: [/b]The rainfall goes back to being average during this month and some Western parts of Wales and Ireland look to see slightly more rainfall than normal.

[b]February:[/b] We switch back over to below average for most parts of the UK.

[b]March:[/b] All parts of the UK go back to normal but all of England stay below average.

[b]Changes in the last month: [/b]The CFS is still going for rainfall this winter to be mainly below average it has said this for the past 2 months so confidence is building.

[b]Temperatures:[/b] On this update the CFS still shows average temperatures for the UK through the whole winter something it has also said for the past 2 months.

[b]Current Long Range CFS Run,[/b]

[b]October: [/b]The first 2 weeks we see unsettled weather across all of the UK. During the 3rd week high pressure takes charge but only for a short while then another unsettled spell takes over for the end of the month.

[b]November: [/b]Looking mainly unsettled with the Atlantic in charge we see constant low pressure systems move in from the West bringing us a mixed bag of weather.

[b]December:[/b] The first 3 weeks see a blocked weather pattern giving us a long settled period of weather. During the end of the month some Northerlies come down and give us some wintry weather.

[b]January: [/b]Goes back to the Atlantic being in charge so we see more unsettled weather for pretty much the whole month.

[b]February:[/b] It doesn't change from January and stays unsettled but this time mainly over the North while Southern parts experience brief high pressure.

[b]March:[/b] For the first 2 weeks it stays unsettled but eventually by week 3 we get a short lived settled spell before going back to being unsettled to end March.

[b]Overall [/b]the trend continues for rainfall to be mainly below average and the temperatures to be average. The current CFS run shows the winter being mainly unsettled and December being the best bet at the moment for anything cold. Another update will be done near the end of October where we take a last look at Autumn 2012 and a better look at the winter.
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Sounds good to me very early yet but my guess for winter is colder than last but and drier than normal

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