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Weather Guide Monday 17th To Sunday 23rd September 2012 (west Wales And Central Midlands Compared)

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[b]Headline: Mostly dry but quite cool; some rain weekend[/b]

As anticipated rainfall amounts during the past week were small in spite of the rather unsettled weather pattern. Rainfall totals for the first half of September just.4mm for Coventry and 14mm here at Llanwnnen - so a very dry month to date (why not this during Summer!). Last weeks guide bore hope for a fine and warm spell from this weekend, however this has not really materialised (especially here in west Wales!). Weather forecasts during the Autumn can sometimes come a cropper as we are in the hurricane season, and once these powerful storms leave the Caribbean or US and curve east towards Europe, the extra energy injection can upset modelled weather patterns at relatively short notice. Hence our expected high pressure for this weekend being too far south-west for prolonged warm and sunny weather. This has been a very active hurricane season to date and during the past week two ex- hurricanes, Leslie and Michael have crossed the Atlantic disrupting the patterns as they do so. This week the next one called Nadine will also influence things, as a slow moving storm out in the Atlantic to the west of Spain by the end of the week, therefore the models somewhat all over the place at the moment regards later this week, although the overall picture suggests plenty of dry weather again but always on the cool side.

Some sunny intervals on Sunday ahead of a weakening front coming over from the west. This front still with enough about it to give some rain and drizzle at times through this afternoon and early evening over west Wales. A largely dry and bright afternoon for the Midlands and up to 19c, then with a spot of rain and drizzle this evening. With high pressure to the south-west and low sat to the north-east Monday and Tuesday are quite similar days in terms of weather. The westerly breeze of Monday veers NW on Tuesday, both days rather cool with sunny intervals and just the odd scattered shower, but some places escaping these completely. Tuesday possibly the greatest chance of better sunny spells through the day as high pressure starts to ridge into west Wales. Quite a cool breeze on both Monday and Tuesday. Maxima only between 14 and 17c, so a cool feel for September.
[attachment=139903:brack1a cool bright few showers Tue.gif][attachment=139906:Rtavn662 cool breezy Tue.png][attachment=139904:Recm722 H SW L NE Tue to Wed cool.gif]

High pressure pushes into the south Wednesday which should be dry with sunny spells and a touch warmer, so reaching 16 to 19c. A clear cold night to follow, chance of a ground frost in places.
[attachment=139905:brack2 R into SW Wed dry.gif][attachment=139907:Rtavn901 R south m dry Wed.png]

As said, tropical storm Nadine is pounding the Azores later in the week and is set is to influence what happens to the weather here in the British Isles. and as such a great deal of uncertainty over what happens Thursday onwards, with very different model outputs prevailing. It seems at this stage that the high pressure will elongate to the west of Ireland while lows cross Scandinavia on Thursday. A cool north-west wind but mostly dry again for Thursday, just the chance of some rain edging down later in the day. Cool and quite windy with maxima just 13 to 15c. Anyone's guess really for Friday and the weekend, with some of the models going for high pressure and so dry weather to end the week, while the latest GFS output goes for low pressure domination with rain at times Thursday onwards and for the weekend. My stab would be to go with continuing the generally dry but rather cool theme through to the end of the week, but trending to unsettled through the weekend, with a more definite chance of rain and wind by Sunday. One thing that seems inevitable is that the final week of September is set to be very unsettled and wet!
[attachment=139908:brack4 nadine with H west L east.gif][attachment=139909:Rtavn1141 GFS L dominates Thu.png][attachment=139909:Rtavn1141 GFS L dominates Thu.png][attachment=139912:Recm1442 H south Sat warmer dry.gif]
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