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Weather Guide Sunday 20th To Saturday 26th May (west Wales And Central Midlands Specific)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Becoming dry, warm and quite sunny! [/b]

The week just gone was not too bad overall with plenty of dry weather, if generally rather cool. Llanwnnen did manage to reach 18c on Friday though, which is a little above the May average. A total of 20mm of rain falling on Llanwnnen, and only 10mm on Coventry in the past week.

A taste of Summer on the way in the coming week (let's hope it's not the last!), with the highest temperatures since that exceptionally warm spell in March.

Messy looking charts for Sunday and Monday as weak fronts straddle the country, with legacies of cloud and a little rain or drizzle in places. Signs of the big improvement to come with our weather showing on Monday however, with a ridge starting to build over western and northern UK, and where it will be a dry and bright day, so west Wales should see some sunshine Monday afternoon.
[attachment=134342:brack1a improvement signs ridge starts.gif]

Then, during Tuesday and Wednesday, this seemingly dubious ridge continues to strengthen across the UK, wedged precariously between low pressure over most of Europe to the south-east, and the nearby Atlantic to our west. In spite of this, the ridge is modelled to build and hold on for the rest of the week, extending from a high over Scandinavia.
[attachment=134343:Recm722 precarious ridge Tue.gif] [attachment=134344:Rtavn842 wam uppers from Tue.png] [attachment=134345:brack4 stronger ridge Wed however precarious.gif]

In weather terms then, Tuesday onwards will be dry with decent sunny spells. As usual cloud amounts in the circulation are difficult to establish, but west Wales and the Midlands seem set for a reasonably sunny spell, any areas of cloud more likely towards the east. With the sunshine and favourable wind direction a warm, even very warm week, is in prospect, maxima reaching between 20c and 24c widely, and I would not rule out the odd 26c by Friday. Breezes of variable direction mid week, becoming more easterly or even south-east as the week progresses, and these may also freshen up a bit too. Mild nights, so that no more ground frosts to be concerned with.
[attachment=134346:Rtavn1081 Scandi H Wed dry warm sunny.png] [attachment=134347:Recm1202 Scandi H Thu warm dry easterly.gif] [attachment=134348:Rukm1441 scandi high Fri dry warm.gif] [attachment=134349:Rtavn1562 potentially very warm Friday SE flow.png]


Next weekend, a shallow weak low is being modelled close to our south-west, which could threaten some showery rain for Saturday, but this is a long way off, and equally the warm and sunny spell may well hang on a bit longer! In fact, it's all highly speculative, but the GFS model is showing the warm and mostly dry spell to continue for the rest of May...
[attachment=134350:Recm1682 SE wind showers threaten weekend.gif] [attachment=134351:Rtavn1744 showery rain poss Sat.png] [attachment=134352:Rtavn1801 fly in ointment for next Sat poss.png]
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Indeed pretty good weather here last week, with a good deal of sunny and warmish weather, and much less rain than the last month.

Certainly looking warmer next week, and hoping the dry weather can last to the Torch Relay over Wales starting next Friday and more especially for here over the weekend.

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Very positive outlook. Cant believe its actually been pretty much 2 months since the last proper good weather. Looking forward to it. BBQ Time! :D

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Good luck with those exams Sam and hope you get some nice sunny weather in the Summer hols!

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