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Alps Ski And Weather Forecast 18th November

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J10

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[b]Current Situation [/b]

There is High pressure centered (1028mb) over SE Europe, with pressure over 1020mb for most of mainland Europe. winds over western Europe are coming from a mild SW direction for much of the Alps and for Western parts of Europe including Southern Scandinavia. Colder air is restricted to the far north of Scandinavia where this a northerly flow and for Russia. The mild weather looks well set for much of mainland Europe, however Scandinavia is set to see a change, and this will be discussed in more detail below.

[attachment=123542:Current 18th Nov 500HPa.png]

[b]Synoptic Progression[/b]

For most of Europe very little change over the next 24 hours, High pressure remains centred (1028mb) over SE Europe, winds remain from a mild S/SE direction. Fronts should remain to the west of the UK, although some rain cannot be ruled out in N and W areas. It should also be mostly dry over the Alps. Sunday sees almost an identical situation, a flabby High pressure covering most of Europe centred over SE parts (1026mb), this giving mostly dry and settled conditions over the UK and the Alps. The colder weather initially over Northern Scandinavia edging further south and then east over the weekend.

[attachment=123534:18 Nov +24.png] [attachment=123535:18 Nov +48.png]

By Monday, the whole situation moves East, the High Pressure centre moves away into Asia, with Atlantic fronts finally making headway over the UK, the Alps should see lower pressure but ti should remain mostly dry. Winds for much of Europe of a southerly orientation so remaining mild. Tuesday sees a big area of High pressure build over Scandinavia, bringing mild weather with southerly winds on its western flank, but northerlies on its eastern flank so bitter air over Eastern Scandinavia and especially Russia. Further south over Europe very much in between weather patterns but remaining mild with winds from the West or South.

[attachment=123536:18 Nov +72.png] [attachment=123537:18 Nov +96.png]

Wednesday sees the High pressure (1036mb) edge further east to be centred over Western Russia, so mild over Scandinavia but increasing bitter over Russia. Polar Maritime air starting to edge in the far NW parts of the UK, as a cold air pushes SE, but generally mild with ridging High pressure from the SW, with winds from deep to the SW for the rest of the UK and Northern Europe. The Alps and Southern Europe seeing Easterly winds on the northerly flank of Low Pressure centred over Northern Italy.

By Thursday, there is High Pressure over much of Central Europe, so mostly settled over the Alps, and remaining mild. Very unsettled for the UK and Scandinavia with some heavy rain, mild to start, over the UK but turning colder after the cold front passes through. Remaining very cold in the far east of Europe including Russia.

For Friday, the colder Polar Maritime air edging SE into Central Europe and the Alps, this gives the potential of snowfalls to quite low levels over the Alps for the first time in a while.

[attachment=123538:18 Nov +120.png] [attachment=123533:18 Nov +144.png] [attachment=123539:18 Nov +168.png][attachment=123542:Current 18th Nov 500HPa.png]

[b]Alps Detail[/b]

Saturday 18th Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 300-1000m, coldest in Eastern and NE Austria, Germany and Northern Switzerland, around 1200 for much of Switzerland and Western Austria.

FL rising to 2200-2500m for France and most of Switzerland, 2700-2900m in SE Austria. 850Hpa ranging from +3-8c generally. Mostly Dry perhaps a little precipitation in the far west during the evening.

[attachment=123543:18 Nov +24.JPG]

Sunday 19th Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 500-1000m in Eastern and NE Austria, milder elsewhere around 1200m, and around 2000m in the Tyrol.

FL rising to 2200-2600m generally. 850Hpa ranging from +3-8c generally. After early morning precipitation moves away from the west, Dry throughout day and night.

[attachment=123544:18 Nov +48.JPG]

Monday 20th Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 300-1000m, coldest in Eastern Austria, milder elsewhere around 1200m, and around 2000m in the Tyrol and into Eastern Switzerland.

FL rising to 2200-2600m generally. 850Hpa ranging from +4-8c generally, but closer to 1-2c on the Italy border with Austria and Switzerland, Dry throughout day and night.

[attachment=123545:18 Nov +72.JPG]

Tuesday 21st Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 300-1000m, coldest in Eastern Austria, milder elsewhere around 1200m, and around 2000m in the Tyrol and into Eastern Switzerland.

FL rising to 2200-2600m generally. 850Hpa ranging from +3-8c generally.

[attachment=123546:18 Nov +96.JPG]

Wednesday 22th Nov - Nighttime FL similar to previous nights, rising to around 2000-2400m, 850Hpa around 4-6c in Central areas, 2-4c elsewhere. The low pressure to the south will give some showers, from the early morning for Southern Switzerland, E France and Italy only dying out slowly during the day.

[attachment=123547:18 Nov +120.JPG]

Thursday 23rd Nov - Nighttime FL 300-600m in parts of Austria closer to 1500m over SW Switzerland, rising to 2400m over France, 1600-1800m over Austria and mostly dry. 850Hpa around 4-6c in Central areas, 2-4c elsewhere. The low pressure to the south will give some showers, from the early morning for Southern Switzerland, E France and Italy only dying out slowly during the day.


[attachment=123548:18 Nov +144.JPG]

Friday 24th Nov - Nighttime Fl 1500-2000m over Western areas, 300-600 over E Austria. A cold front will bring some precipitation to the NW Alps and will spread to Central areas by evening. FL 1200-1400m to the NW of the front, 1600-2100m ahead of it. However by evening, snow levels down to around 500-800m with moderate falls in places.

[attachment=123549:18 Nov +168.JPG]

[b]Summary[/b]

Mostly settled and mild to start, but the chance of some much needed snow just before next weekend.
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Looking at this mornings charts the snow potential just before next weekend looks less likely. With the colder air never making as far south as the Alps, of course this may change over coming days, but going by this autumn so far, you would probably have to think that the milder option is probably the most likely.

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