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The 8Th February - The Beginning Of Another Major Cold Spell?

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LomondSnowstorm

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Well the date that has been bandied about for weeks now on the model thread is almost upon us - the 8th February. Comments like 'we'll all be buried by the 8th' or 'ignore that horrible ECM 168 chart showing southwesterlies because by the 8th there'll be an easterly' have become commonplace lately. But why the 8th? Is there a reason for the fascination with this date, other than a few implausible FI charts?Well the answer comes from a man born just five miles away, in the Kinross-shire village of Kinneswood, in the catchment area of my dad's secondary school, in 1814. His name was James Buchan, and he was the father of the science of meteorology - he discovered that low pressure systems in the NH have anticlockwise circulation (something some members still seem oblivious to!). In addition to this, he came up with a number of common cold spells and warm spells, the most frequently occurring of which is the 7th to the 14th of February.From memories of the last three winters, I have to say that this still rings true today - last year had the 12th February snowfalls, which brought 4-8 inches in eastern Scotland, but also the breakdown of the cold spell and effectively the winter [url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090212.gif"][u][color="#0000ff"]http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090212.gif[/u][/color][/url] . It would've been a snow day at school but alas, it fell on the five day weekend, as did this southeasterly streamer, which delivered something similar [url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070211.gif"]http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070211.gif[/url] .So what about this year?Well tomorrow could well bring about wintry showers for many parts of the area, mostly light in nature and very marginal due to not convicingly cold uppers but perhaps a few flakes nonetheless.[attachment=97237:nmm.png] After this is where a bit more interest lies, with a decaying occluded front bringing what would appear to be snow overnight into Tuesday [url="http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVG89.png"]http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVG89.png[/url] and on Wednesday, as the wind veers back east again, another front may well clip Fife and the Lothians [url="http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVK89.png"]http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVK89.png[/url] . After this, an easterly looks likely, but whether the cold and snowy variety or the chilly and a bit miserable type is yet to be decided based on the cold pool sitting mainly to the south of Scotland. But the real interest for most of Scotland will be the weekend onwards, as high pressure retrogresses, in the classic pattern of this winter, towards Greenland [url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif"]http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif[/url] . Ominous? [url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120091218.gif"]http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120091218.gif[/url]What follows is not entirely certain, but it appears that a chunk of the displaced PV will be dragged south with this trough and bring something potentially spectacular to most of the UK [url="http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-216.GIF?07-0"]http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-216.GIF?07-0[/url].[url="http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-240.png"]http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-240.png[/url]It depends where the trough ends up - too far west and the atlantic may make a return, but if the channel lows undercut perfectly? [url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119781231.gif"]http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119781231.gif[/url]If the troughs from the north end up over us, though, something akin to December is also entirely plausible, perhaps even better if the trough contains colder uppers or sets itself up in the North Sea - but now we're just speculating!20-40% chance of -15 uppers arriving at some point in the next two weeks - not my words, but those of Chionomaniac. It's times like these that make you glad you discovered the forum.LS
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Let me be the first to congratulate you on the quality blog entry. Long live the kilted thread.[img]http://forumcache.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/default/good.gif[/img]

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Great reading LS - I agree having only been on here regularly since mid December that it is a great time for all the banter on the forum :)

Keep Up the great work. :cold:

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Superb posting and summary as usual LS.. nice mix of realism with speculation. :drinks:

this coming weekend is the 5 day weekend again.. here's hoping you don't get a snow day again ;)

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I think, for once, the real risk is actually when I'm back at school!![img]http://forumcache.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/default/drinks.gif[/img]

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