Onto my forecast (charts absent);
Right then, the site and forum are now up and running smoothly and I have finally found time to fit in a "late mid-month" update.
This weekend has seen some sleet and snow cross the country with over 10cm in places. My previous forecast failed to highlight this but I did acknowledge the fact in my forecast that the future was unpredictable, with very few people forecasting this event.
Onto the forecast then for March and April 2008;
The NAO chart (as seen below) current shows that the current colder weather is down to a negative NAO. This means Low pressure is to the south (anticlockwise winds) and high pressure to the north (clockwise winds) winds allowing the flow of air to come from a much colder north. With low pressure anchored to the east we have seen arctic air flood the country giving snow to many.
As you can see it is likely to remain (forecast to) negative well into the first week of April. This means low pressure will continue to feed in colder air over the UK for the time being, winds may veer westerly however from time to time signalling the introduction of milder and wetter weather.
My long range forecasts are based on trends and are usually quite successful. Negative phases tend to last for 2 weeks before returning to a positive phase and this 2 week phase is now 3 days in so I expect the first week of April, and the remainder of March to be consumed by this negative phase.
So a cool and sometimes wintry theme likely for the next week or two, but seeming as it's almost April the weather seems unlikely to be excessively cool. If this was January however I wouldn't be too surprised if temperatures stayed below freezing all day for this wintry period.
During the first week of April the weather will turn milder as high pressure builds from the south. The strength of the NAO is critical here to weather the High pressure will climb far enough North to give mild dry winds or whether low pressure will be squeezed over us keeping it very wet and windy! I think it will be a slow transition, at first wet and windy before by mid-month it will turn dry and mild with a pleasant spring like week.
I expect this to remain a similar theme for the April month allowing the final temperatures to be above average.
So all in all, winter makes a VERY Late appearance before spring comes bleating in towards April to leave a fine and settled spring in place!