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About this blog

Musings on the current, previous and forecast weather of the Dundee/Edinburgh area and more!

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Winter Forecast 2015/16

I usually start these off with a recap of last winter, but this year I covered that in a separate blog, so here's one I made earlier: Moving onto this winter, there are a number of factors that make this a really fascinating one to watch. I'll go through each of these in turn, explaining what they're likely to do and how that's likely to affect us, before going on to look briefly at the methodology of the forecast, and, finally, getting to the fun bit, where I pull all of this together

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

Recap of 2014/15 forecast (2015/16 forecast to follow...)

Before I start on this year's forecast, it's worth recapping last year's one for a look at what went right, and (moreso) what went wrong, and why. If my 2013/14 forecast was wrong but for the 'right' reasons i.e. the synoptic pattern for the NH that materialised was similar to the one that was predicted even if it was milder than I'd predicted for here, last winter's was pretty much the opposite, for Scotland at least. A look at the predicted/analogue (left) vs the actual height anomalies (on

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

(Preliminary) Winter Forecast 2014/15 - Return to Cold?

[size=3]Before I get started on this I must at least explain last winter's forecasting failure on my part – I did indeed get the mild, wet start to winter right but the second half was so epically wrong that it more than offsets the relative successes of my previous few attempts. In my defence, the analogue charts weren’t that far off for late winter and in fact the cold trough over the US was correctly placed, but on this side of the Atlantic heights were never quite high enough west of Sca

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

Winter Forecast Recap/Update

With December nearly over (and with me having some spare time on my hands for once) I thought it would be a good time to assess my winter forecast so far and give my thoughts on where we're likely to head weatherwise in the New Year. This was my NH composite forecast for the general height pattern for both the troposphere and stratosphere for December, along with my own adjustments to the composite maps:[quote] [size=5][b]December[/b][/size] [url="http://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthl

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

Lomond Snowstorm's (epic novel) Winter Forecast 2013/14

Well here we are again folks, that special time of year when the anticipation of Christmas is matched only by the joy of the now annual tradition of the LomondSnowstorm winter forecast. Last winter promised much and delivered some, although on the ground it was generally more of a slushy hinterland than a winter wonderland. So can we continue the trend of generally below average winters which have developed in tandem with a more southerly tracking jet, or will the glorious summer of 2013 usher i

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

Factors affecting a lack of snowfall in Embra city (blogged from the thread, for future reference perhaps)

[quote name='LomondSnowstorm' date='13 February 2013 - 16:14 ' timestamp='1360772050' post='2607974'] [quote name='by-tor' timestamp='1360771157' post='2607928'] No entirely sure I understand all the factors in the Edinburgh snowshield but it definitely exists. We came back down the A9 from Boat of Garten earlier, heavy snow in poor visibility almost all the way until we got close to the north side of the Forth Road bridge. On the Embra side, visibility vastly improved, rain, and even on the h

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

Lomond Snowstorm's Winter Forecast 2012/13

Well it’s that time of year again when I, and what seems like half the world, publish their thoughts on the coming winter. Many of us have already had a taste of winter, with fairly significant snow down the east coast, away from the now famous snow shadow here in central eastern Scotland. The northern hemispheric pressure patterns that delivered that snowfall and which have been showing up for some time now consistently on the models has borne a striking resemblance to those of 09/10 and earl

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

Lomond Snowstorm's 2011/12 Winter Forecast

I perhaps left this forecast a bit late, to the point that it coincides with the Netweather one, but I felt it was worth doing one anyway even if it overlaps with much of what others are saying. I'll have a look at the factors to consider, then summarise each individual month, both in terms of the general pattern and for Scotland in particular. [b][u][size=4]Key Factors[/size][/u][/b] [size=4]ENSO - We're most likely looking at a weak-moderate La Nina, perhaps similar in strength to last year,

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

Christmas Forecast 2010

This is my first blog of the 2010/2011 winter, and so far we've had over 2 foot of snow falling. But that means nothing if Christmas is a slushy washout, right? Well perhaps that's an exaggeration but a white Christmas really would top this month off very nicely. Of course there are three types of white christmas. There's the met office definition of a flake falling at one of their weather stations (initially it was on central London but was widened out to major cities in other parts of the UK

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

A Rare Dreich, Mild Day In This Extraordinary Winter

Greetings!I finally got round to starting a blog so here goes....The last thirty six hours have reminded us what this part of the world is famed for - rain on and off, though usually not all that heavy, temperatures moving between 4.9C and 5.6C, and that horrible grey murk surrounding the Howe of Fife, not lowering visibillity enough to make it seem like an actual event but just generally making the view seem much bleaker. These are the days when I feel the suicide rate must be at its highest. B

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

The Potential Sleety Breakdown/ Blizzard Of The Decade/ Somewhere In Between Of Boxing Day 2010

After a week where temperatures of -2C have been regarded as a slight warm up for most of us and where snow cover still lies thick on the trees days after its initial fall, the old adage of all good things must come to an end enters the fray. It should have been plainly evident to anyone who has lived in this country for more than two years that spells like this one are not only rare but exceptional, and even the classic winters did not manage to sustain cold like that for over a fortnight. The

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

Mr Data On The Era Of Modernity In Light Of The Winter Of 2009/10

[quote name='Mr_Data' date='01 March 2010 - 23:02 ' timestamp='1267484559' post='1791704'][quote name='North Sea Snow Convection' date='01 March 2010 - 13:17 ' timestamp='1267449454' post='1791378']All this winter has done is confirm my own expectations as to the sort of winter that is still possible to experience in the UK. Indeed colder one's than this are still possible.[/quote]Yes, it has surpassed for coldness at least for the CET the winters of the 1900s, 1930s, 1950s, 1980s, 1990s and 200

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

The Historic Winter Of 2009/2010

Winter 09/10 average for Scotland (provisional up to 24th considering downwards revisions are usually quite likely):0.24 °CWinter 06/07 average: 4.34C 71/00 average:2.7C62/63 average: 0.16CIs a 0.08C revision downwards too much to ask?Still, whatever happens, this has been the most incredible winter for persistance of snow and cold IMO. For this area it was really only about that famous spell which will go down in history as probably the coldest 28 days for a few hundred years - I think it proba

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

Quick Update On Next Week

Hi all you loyal LS fans. Having already posted this on the model thread I felt I'll keep it safe on here as it isn't too bad a summary for next week.Tomorrow evening looks interesting for anywhere from Fort William to Wick to Comrie to my location, as a band stalls over northeast Scotland for a number of hours before heading southwest. [url="http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/15/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021700_1512.gif"][color="#284b72"]http://expert.weathe...021700_1

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

Weather Anorak

I was having a tidy up the other day in my room when I stumbled across a few printoffs from 2005, when I was eleven. It was, unsurprisingly to most on the forum, a five day weather forecast by the BBC and STV from the 2005 Boxing Day easterly. The date printed? Christmas Eve. It was at that moment that I realised just how obsessed I had become with the weather, moreso in winter than summer of course, from when I was just nine or ten. Another thought also crossed my mind, and that was that the 20

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

The 8Th February - The Beginning Of Another Major Cold Spell?

Well the date that has been bandied about for weeks now on the model thread is almost upon us - the 8th February. Comments like 'we'll all be buried by the 8th' or 'ignore that horrible ECM 168 chart showing southwesterlies because by the 8th there'll be an easterly' have become commonplace lately. But why the 8th? Is there a reason for the fascination with this date, other than a few implausible FI charts?Well the answer comes from a man born just five miles away, in the Kinross-shire village o

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

A Christmas Weather Sum Up - Past, Present And Future!(Warning, This Entry Is Entirely Stolen From My Own Post On Regional Thread!)

Firstly, I'd like to have a look at what happened in the west of Scotland today. Basically, a level of upper air had a temperature above freezing , causing rain to fall despite the low ground temperatures [url="http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/12/25/basis06/ukuk/t925/10122509_2506.gif"][color="#284b72"]http://expert.weathe...122509_2506.gif[/color][/url] This was actually picked up on by the NAE at 12pm yesterday, so perhaps we should've been more on the ball with

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

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