[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica][size=5][b]June 2014 -[/b][/size][/font][/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica] [/font][/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/font][/color]
[b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Rainfall[/
This is the 3rd blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June], the first 2 blogs were mostly [size=4][font=arial]positive.[/font][/size]
At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]
So moving on to the detail.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
Using the raw charts from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Long Range Forecast Maps.
[b]June[/b]
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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Unsettled, rain at times, potentially wet weather Midlands; perhaps improving later in the week[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Spectacular storms over much of Mid and North Wales last Monday, some fantastic lightning shows, especially for Aberystwyth northwards where there were multiple storms from dawn until the early hours of Tuesday! The lightning was notable for being visible over great distances, I saw bright lightning
This is the second blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June], the first blog was mostly [size=4][font=arial]positive.[/font][/size]
At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]
So moving on to the detail.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
Using the charts kindly supplied from Paul
[attachment=213364:Temps 18 May.JPG] [attachment=213365:Precip 18 May.
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Unsettled, showery rain at times; warm to average temperatures[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Last week was mostly dry at least after the showers early in the week. Most places warmed up mid week, with some quite high temperatures for May. The past 3 days all exceeded 21c here at Llanwnnen, while Pershore, Worcestershire was the warmest in the UK on Friday at 23c, and with many parts of the Midlands reached 21c to 23c on Friday and Sa
This is the first blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June]
At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]
4. [b]MJO Index[/b]
So moving on to the detail.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
These are produced weekly and this week Paul has very kindly supplied me with a higher resolution version of the forecast.
[attachment=212739:June Rainfall May 11.JPG
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[b]Headline: Cool and showery at first, becoming mostly dry and warm from Wednesday; more unsettled next weekend[/b][/font][/color]
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The Midlands saw some rather warm and quite sunny weather up to last Tuesday, in contrast West Wales has been quite dull with just fleeting sunny intervals. May is often the sunniest month of the year here in West Wales. Thus far sunshine figures have been very disappointing, with just 22 hours
[font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Unsettled, showers and longer spells of rain most days; average to cool temperatures[/b][/font]
[font=Helvetica]Many areas escaped the worst of the showers ending up with a reasonably dry week past, although on Thursday parts of the Midlands were rather wet, Coventry getting 8mm, but the showers were very hit and miss even then. A mild/ quite warm week too, West Wales saw temperatures reach 18 or 19c early in the week, with similar values then being achieved acros
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[b]Headline: Showery but quite warm; cool and mainly dry with frost from Friday[/b][/font]
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A mild/ quite warm week gone for the most part although with some rain at times. Easter Monday was warm many places reaching 17 to 19c, and 19.9c in my garden although we were not in it! Friday saw variable conitions, much of the Midlands being cool and wet with over an inch of rain for parts of the South and West Midlands, Alvechurch south of Birmingham, receiving 38mm
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][size=5][b]May 2014 -[/b][/size][/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] [/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/font][/color]
[b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Rainfall[/font][/font][/color][/b]
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[b]Quite warm and unsettled; rain or showers at times, but dry, bright spells too.[/b][/font]
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A generally mild and dry week gone, Ceredigion in particular seeing some rather warm conditions of 17c in the first half of the week, although it did turn somewhat cooler from Friday. High sunshine amounts too early in the week especially, Coventry had almost unbroken sunshine from Sunday to Wednesday totalling 43.7 hours for these 4 days while Llanwnnen had an estim
[font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mild and mostly dry with sunny spells; frost and fog patches overnight; turning unsettled next weekend[/b][/font]
[font=Helvetica]Mostly dry with some sunny spells since last Tuesday with temperatures around or a little above the April average (13c) although quite warm at times for the Midlands where Coventry topped 16c (60f) on Wednesday for example. There were a few ground frosts as is typical in April still, down close to zero on both Wednesday and Friday night
[center][size=5]10. False taste of winter[/size][/center]
[center][attachment=210712:29Nov.png][/center]
Towards the end of November the UK got it's first taste of winter with strong Northerly winds and some wintry weather around as well.
[center][size=5]9. The January tease[/size][/center]
[center][attachment=210721:Jan.png][/center]
January was mostly settled and it always felt like it was leading up to something the models would show us some cold charts then downgrade them as
[font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Changeable with some rain at times but largely dry and bright mid week; temperatures around average, ground frost risk[/b][/font]
[font=Helvetica]Very high temperatures last Sunday for March, 18 to 20c reached widely, highest readings 20.7c at Porthmadog and 20.6c here at Llanwnnen. Thunderstorms in places on Monday along with Saharan dust deposits, if you wondered why the car was so dirty! The SE winds also brought high air pollution levels to the Midlands in par
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[b]Headline: Often warm with rain in places and thunder chances to mid week; Thursday perhaps wet, then cooler and changeable[/b][/font]
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Some places,particularly the Midlands saw their coldest temperature for a year last Sunday, widely -3c or -4c and colder than anything the mild Winter could offer. Here at Llanwnnen it fell to -3.9c but was only the lowest since November (-7c), many nights saw at least a ground frost last week. The Midlands had a lovely dry
[size=5][b]April 2014 -[/b][/size] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]Based on long range forecasts and the climate simulator.[/font][/color]
[b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]Rainfall[/font][/color][/b]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]England, Wales and parts of Ireland and Southern Scotland look most likely to see above average rainfall. Northern Ireland and the rest of Scotland is expected to see average rainfall amounts. Overall I think April could be slightly wetter in so
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[b]Headline: Cool with rain at times, drier after mid week and milder next weekend[/b][/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Mild and mostly dry until Thursday last week, then a rain front swept east introducing the cooler air mass we have been in since with showers about, but generally only modest precipitation accumulations. Plenty of hail showers on Saturday, and some of the hills saw sleet or snow, while a few parts of the Midlands such as Redditch and Long Buckby appear
[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mild and often dry to mid week, then cool and unsettled; wintry showers possible from Friday[/b][/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]A welcome dry week gone, barely a drop of rain, but with a lot of local variation depending on cloud cover and fog. Generally though it was a sunny week with some warm temperatures at times. Last Sunday saw 15 to 18c widely, and 18.6c at Coventry, notably warm for early March. Wednesday and Thursday saw highly contrasting condition
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[b]Headline: Mostly dry and mild to very mild with sunny spells but perhaps cloudier for the Midlands; overnight slight frosts[/b][/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Although we still saw some rain at times last week, it was generally a lot drier than over recent months. It became very mild across the Midlands and South Wales by Friday, highs of 14 or 15c in places. Then on Saturday the very mild weather was more widespread in spite of the wind, with across West Wales 14.
Looks like the first of the nice weather this weekend, maybe I'll take a trip around some of the countryside if I get time between my Uni work and all the other stuff people are trying to hire me for!
Looking forward to it.
Oh and yeah, I simply couldn't resist changing my Facebook profile picture to something you might recognize!
Goodnight!
[attachment=208911:Photo on 06-03-2014 at 11.32.jpg]
[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable with some rain at times; drier and milder prospects from mid week, especially Midlands[/b][/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]The West Wales deluge is over! After one of the wettest Seasons on record, here at Llanwnnen 782mm the total rain for December to February, or two and a half feet! At Coventry only Winter 1976/ 77 has been wetter since 1870 ([url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]https://twitter.com/bablakewx[/url] ) . As well publicised this ha
[size=5][b]March 2014 - [/b][size=4]Based on long range forecasts and the climate simulator.[/size][/size]
[b]Rainfall[/b]
After the wettest winter since records began there are signs of above average rainfall continuing into March especially for the West.
[attachment=208606:MarchRain.png]
Eastern parts are likely to see average rainfall amounts.
[b]Temperature[/b]
The South East of England is likely to see 1°C or maybe even 1.5°C above average temperatures as the rest of the
[size=3][font=arial][b]Headline: Unsettled, rain or showers at times; temperatures mild to average; drying next weekend[/b]
A relaxation in the stormy wet weather last week, although we all saw some rain and wind at times, rainfall only amounted to 28.2mm here for the past 7 days and just 8.4mm at Coventry. There were some pleasant, mainly dry conditions at times, in particular for the Midlands. Wednesday the mildest of the year so far in some places with Hereford reaching 13.3c and Trawscoed
