The recent wet weather pattern looks set to continue, bringing further challenges for farmers and potentially impacting crop yields.
The recent mild/warm and wet weather since October 2023 has mixed results on Britain's economy. For farmers, it generally hasn't been good news because yields of crops such as wheat, rapeseed and barley are expected to be reduced this year as a result of the wet weather. There is still potential for these crops to be planted during the coming weeks, but if the weather continues to be generally wet (which is currently looking likely), it may be challenging. Impacts on consumer prices may be limited this year because global stocks of these crops are high, so the UK may be able to limit the effect on prices by leaning more heavily upon imports. However, under a less favourable global market, this would have had more significant potential to result in people facing somewhat higher prices.
Meanwhile, gas prices, which had the potential to remain high due to the impacts of the war between Russia and Ukraine, have ended up low due to the mild, wet and windy weather, which has limited demand for gas during the winter in most parts of Europe. In contrast, the frequent windy weather has helped wind power generation. The main exception to the low gas demands has been in Scandinavia, which, compared to the rest of Europe, had a generally cold winter in 2023/24.
It was anticipated before the winter that the emergence of frequent Greenland blocking highs could result in a generally cold second half of the winter for most of Europe. Still, while these did materialise to some extent, they were only strong enough to keep directing cold air outbreaks into Scandinavia. A strong jet stream sending depressions over and to the north of the British Isles kept Britain in a predominantly mild and wet regime, with just the one significant interruption when a Greenland blocking high brought a spell of cold easterly and northerly winds around mid-January 2024.
Looking ahead to Easter, the generally wet weather looks set to continue, with low pressure set to become slow-moving over western and southern Britain, bringing the usual mix of bands of persistent rain interspersed with brighter, showery weather.
Returning to today's outlook, today will have a stiff west-to-north-westerly wind for most of us and a mix of sunshine and showers. Showers will break out widely in the southern half of England this afternoon after a generally dry, sunny start in the east. Some sheltered eastern areas further north, particularly in north-east England, may not see many showers, with some places missing them altogether. Showers will generally fall as rain or hail at low levels, but there will be some sleet and snow on high ground, particularly in the Scottish Highlands. Temperatures will be slightly below average for late March, but not unusually so, with most places seeing a maximum of between 7 and 9C and reaching around 10C in parts of southern and eastern England.
Showers will tend to become confined to north-facing coasts overnight, with the majority of them becoming confined to northern Scotland. Despite generally clear skies and north-westerly winds, because it will remain windy for most, temperatures will typically hold up well above freezing, falling no lower than 3 to 5C.
On Sunday, it will generally be a sunny day with just a scattering of showers, mainly affecting northern Scotland, south-east Scotland and north-east England, and the winds will be lighter. It will cloud over from the west in Northern Ireland and southwest England during the afternoon and evening, ahead of more rain-bearing frontal systems moving towards Britain from the west. Temperatures will be back up to around the seasonal norm, reaching between 10 and 13C in most parts of England, Northern Ireland and southern Scotland. However, it will be cooler in northern Scotland, with further snow showers in the Scottish Highlands.
The generally unsettled weather will continue, with low pressure becoming slow-moving to the southwest of Britain. Monday looks set to be a typically dry, albeit increasingly cloudy, day in northern Scotland and eastern England. Still, elsewhere, we will see rain pushing in from the southwest, which will turn to sleet and snow at low levels away from coasts as it moves into central parts of Scotland, with accumulations of snow on high ground. Further rain will push northwards through the country on Tuesday.
This will set us up for further bands of rain and showers pushing from south to north as we head towards the Easter weekend. Temperatures will tend to be close to the seasonal norm by day and above normal by night, except in northern Scotland, where colder air will often be close by, resulting in relatively cool temperatures at times and further snow on high ground.
