February 2024 delivered unusually warm temperatures, nearly breaking centuries-old records. However, the mild weather won't continue. March is forecast to bring a noticeable shift, with cooler temperatures replacing February's warmth.
February 2024 turned out to be the second warmest February on record in the Central England Temperature series that goes back to 1659. February is one of the few remaining months where the record was set a long time ago - 7.9C back in 1779 - and February 2024 came in just 0.1C short at 7.8C. It was also a cloudy month except in eastern Scotland, and a very wet one in central and southern England and in south Wales.
February 2024 was most exceptionally warm in the south. In the Met Office temperature series from 1884, England and Wales had its warmest February in the series. For the UK as a whole, however, it was not quite as warm as February 1998. February 1998, unlike many other very mild Februarys, was particularly exceptionally warm in the north of Britain, because much of the south, particularly the south and east of England, had plenty of sunshine and the clear skies resulted in relatively cold nights, while the north was often cloudy and windy and this held the overnight minimum temperatures up. In February 2024 roles were reversed with a lot of dull wet weather in the south, resulting in high overnight minima, while relatively cold weather and nearer average rainfall affected the north of Britain.
There is a chance March could be colder than February for many of us this year. March 2024 has already started on a wintry note for some, with falling and lying snow in parts of the Republic of Ireland on the 1st, including the Dublin area, and some parts of England and Wales have seen falling and lying snow today. Although it is currently looking unlikely that we will see widespread cold and snowy weather during the first half of March, it looks probable that easterly winds will feature, bringing below-average temperatures to much of the UK. In England and Wales, with February having been so mild, even if March 2024 ends up with temperatures near or slightly above the 1991-2020 long-term average, this will still be enough to make it colder than February was.
The last time March was widely colder than February was in 2013. In a very cold start to the year, February 2013 had already been quite cold, but March 2013 was exceptionally cold, and heavy snowfalls around the 22nd produced big snow drifts on the Pennines, which stuck around well into April on higher ground. 2018, despite the famous Beast from the East, did not fall into this category as February 2018 was also quite cold, and March 2018 had some mild and wet spells in between the two exceptionally cold snowy easterly outbreaks around the 1st and 18th.
For the rest of today, cloud and persistent rain near the coasts, with sleet and snow inland, will clear away from northern Scotland during the rest of today, clearing away completely by evening. It will be a generally cloudy day with showers and longer spells of precipitation in northern England and north Wales, with a mix of sunshine and showers further south. Most of the precipitation will be rain, but there will continue to be sleet and snow to low levels in inland parts of Wales and in the west Midlands, and on high ground elsewhere in the Midlands and northern England. Northern Ireland will have sunshine and showers, and central and southern Scotland will be mostly dry and bright but showery rain will spread into southern Scotland in the evening. Temperatures will generally be below the long-term average for early March, reaching around 8C in most of southern and eastern England, but between 5 and 7C in most other regions.
Temperatures will hold up under cloud and rain tonight in Scotland, falling no lower than 3 to 5C for most. Elsewhere skies will generally clear except near North Sea coasts, resulting in a fairly widespread frost with temperatures falling to 2C or lower and some prone frost hollows dropping below freezing.
On Sunday it will generally be cloudy near North Sea coasts, as an area of rain will be slow-moving out in the North Sea and an overhang of high cloud will affect eastern Britain. Elsewhere, it will be a generally sunny day, with some scattered showers in the west, but many places will stay dry. Temperatures will typically peak between 7 and 9C.
Monday looks set to start off dry and sunny for most of us, but it will be wet in Northern Ireland and a band of rain will push eastwards through Wales and western England during the afternoon and evening. For much of next week winds will become southerly and this will allow temperatures to widely reach or exceed 10C, with bands of rain pushing slowly from south-west to north-east with drier, brighter weather in between, but towards next weekend, it looks probable that colder easterlies will develop.
