The potential for blocking highs to the north suggests colder weather possibilities during the rest of February, but milder south-westerlies currently dominate.
The long range forecast models have been predicting a high pressure anomaly to the north and north-west of the UK during February for a long time. It does look probable that during the rest of February, we will see more blocking anticyclones than usual between Greenland and Scandinavia a pattern which is traditionally associated with cold outbreaks over Europe with northerly and/or easterly winds.
However, no substantial cold outbreaks are likely to happen for the next ten days, at least over the majority of Europe. It will often stay cold over Scandinavia and West Russia, which have so far been having a cold winter in 2023/24. A weak jet stream is currently established south of the Greenland/Scandinavian, blocking highs with low pressure centred in the eastern North Atlantic, bringing relatively mild south-westerlies to most of the British Isles. Still, Scotland will have colder outbreaks, bringing frost and snow, especially on high ground.
For the longer term, the general forecast is for high pressure to build over and to the east of Britain in about a week. However, the medium-range forecast models have been predicting a build of pressure at days 7 to 10 for a while. It has so far not materialised, so the shift into drier, anticyclonic weather could yet be delayed further. However,
It is looking probable that this regime with above-average blocking highs to the north and north-west of Britain will continue into early March, meaning that there remains long-term potential for cold northerly and/or easterly outbreaks to develop, but as we head into late February and March, with the seasonal shift from winter into early spring and an increasingly strong sun, the chances of substantial wintry weather diminish with time at this time of year.
Nonetheless, even in today's warming climate, substantial wintry weather is possible in late February and March, as we saw starkly in 2018 with the "Beast from the East" at the end of February and beginning of March. There was also a subsequent easterly blast on 17/18 March 2018 when parts of the West Country failed to get above freezing on the 18th and saw persistent snow down to sea level. Most recently, there was widespread snow between 8 and 10 March 2023. However, altitude was critical on that occasion, with higher ground, especially in northern England, seeing substantial snow accumulations and many low-lying areas seeing nothing more than a slushy dusting on the ground.
There is some snow in the forecast for today, but only for northern Scotland, as the cold air mass associated with Thursday's wintry weather that affected the Midlands northwards has been pushed back to cover just northern Scotland. It will be cloudy in northern Scotland with snow on high ground and sleet and wet snow on low ground for a time, except near east-facing coasts where the precipitation will predominantly be rain throughout. However, as the milder air pushes up from the south, this will tend to turn to rain except on the highest ground during the afternoon and evening before clearing away northwards.
Elsewhere, there is an extensive veil of cloud, but much of it is high cloud, so most of us can expect a fair amount of sunshine. However, cloudier weather with some persistent rain will spread northwards through the eastern side of England during the afternoon and evening, and some showers mixed with clear intervals will develop in south-west England. Temperatures will be pretty mild for the time of year, reaching around 11C in East Anglia and south-east England and around 8 or 9C in most other regions. It will be colder in northern Scotland, with many areas only reaching between 2 and 4C.
It will stay mild overnight, with the milder air also pushing into northern Scotland. The band of rain will push northwards through eastern Scotland and north-east England, with clearer weather following behind, with some scattered showers near the south coast of England.
Sunday will generally be a day of sunshine and scattered showers, but persistent rain in north-east Scotland will be slow to clear. Under the cloud and rain in northeast Scotland, temperatures will only reach around 5C, but elsewhere, maximum temperatures of between 8C and 10C are expected.
It will turn colder on Monday, with some wintry showers in western Britain, particularly affecting Scotland, Northern Ireland and north-west England. Some of the showers in Scotland and northern England may also make it into eastern counties. Mild and wet weather will push in from the south-west to affect most of the UK from Tuesday onwards. Still, the colder air will stay put in Scotland, where winds will be predominantly easterly, and it may take until Thursday or Friday for the milder air to arrive, giving potential for further snow as fronts push into the cold air mass.
