Fewer showers as we start the new week, with some warm sunshine for many until mid-week, then an area of low pressure takes an unusual track northwest from central Europe - bringing heavy and perhaps thundery rain to eastern and northern areas from mid-week.
Scotland was again the warmest part of Britain on Saturday, Glasgow reached 25.3C – the highest temperature of the day. It wasn’t all warm sunshine in Scotland through, with sea mist and fog or haar affecting eastern coastal areas of Britain and this will continue to plague North Sea and Irish Sea coasts over the next few days.
A fine start to the week for many, but trouble brewing for mid-week, as a low takes an usual track from central Europe to Scotland, bringing heavy and perhaps thundery rain to eastern and northern areas.
Wales and western parts of England saw some lively thunderstorms develop through Saturday afternoon too, bringing some flash-flooding in places. Thankfully the risk of a heavy shower and especially storms subsides over the next few days, as high pressure builds in more to settle the weather down. However, by mid-week, low pressure over central Europe looks to drift northwest towards the North Sea – bringing heavy and perhaps thundery rain with it across eastern and northern areas later on Tuesday and through Wednesday. Hopefully a drier end to the week though, as the low moves away north and allows high pressure to re-establish to bring a drier and sunnier Friday for all.
For now, it’s a grey start across some eastern areas - thanks to a moist airmass flowing over the cooler North Sea creating sea fog and low cloud - which has spread west inland overnight. Also some sea fog around some Irish Sea coasts.
The low cloud or sea fog should burn away through the morning, to leave a mostly fine day with warm sunshine for many, though sea fog may linger in the northeast while Scotland may see more in the way of cloud with perhaps the odd isolated heavy shower developing in the west. Not as warm in Scotland today, with more cloud, highest temperatures in SE England – where we could reach 23-24C, elsewhere reaching 20-22C, cooler along North Sea coasts and far north of Scotland with onshore northerly breeze.
Sea fog, mist and low cloud rolling back inland from North Sea coasts tonight, so grey start to Monday across eastern areas. Clearer skies towards the west overnight will mean a sunny start to Monday here. Low cloud and sea fog burning back to coasts but may linger near coasts in the northeast, otherwise another fine day with plenty of warm sunshine. Just the outside chance of a catching a heavy shower developing across NW Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland. Temperatures reaching 20-22C inland, cooler along North Sea coasts.
Pressure looks to fall across the south and west through Tuesday, so although it will start dry and sunny after morning mist or low cloud burns back and it stays sunny for many, there is a greater risk than Monday for some heavy showers or perhaps one or two thunderstorms to break out across the Republic of Ireland and N. Ireland along with Wales and SW England. Also a risk of heavy and thundery showers drifting in off the North Sea across eastern areas of England. But most staying dry and sunny. Temperatures similar to Monday, 20-22C generally, cooler along North Sea coasts.
Tuesday night looks to see an area of heavy and perhaps thundery rain with an area of low pressure drifting northwest arrive across SE England and East Anglia, which then looks to spread northwest across eastern then northern England through Wednesday morning, then across Scotland through the afternoon – accompanied by strong north or northeasterly winds in the east. Models are indicating potential for persistent and very heavy rainfall across northern and eastern areas on Wednesday – so potential on some flooding, but more details on this early in the coming week. Sunshine and scattered showers for Wales, SW England and following early rain further east. Not as warm, generally in the mid to high teens, perhaps 20C with some sunshine.
Source: wxcharts.com
Potentially a very wet start across Scotland, far north of England and N. Ireland on Thursday, before rain, perhaps thundery, clears away north to be followed by breezy conditions with sunny spells and scattered showers across most areas. Rain could linger across the north of Scotland. Temperatures remaining in the mid-to-high teens at best, low teens across northern Scotland with the cloud, rain and strong winds here.
A ridge of high pressure looks to build in for Friday, so hopefully less windy and drier for most, with some sunshine and more warmth, risk of a few well-scattered showers in places.
Some uncertainty for next weekend, but we may see low pressure move east off the Atlantic, bringing some brief spells of rain, sunshine and showers both days.
