It's Swithun's Day tomorrow, and there will be some rain in places, but 40 days of rain is a myth, isn't it?
We have some rain in the forecast for tomorrow, and it's St Swithun, so will it rain for the next forty days and forty nights? It's hard to believe that an Anglo-Saxon Bishop could have had so much sway on our climate beliefs as the adage is untrue. But we must always remember that our ancestors would have noticed weather patterns in the same way as we do today. What perhaps the Bishop saw, was a change in circulation pattern that tends to appear from around St Swithun until about St Matthew on 24th August. And when looked at in this way, the saying does have has some truth.
This morning we have a good deal cloud over the country and a few light showers. There's the odd heavy one over Norfolk, but most parts are beginning dry. There's some sunshine in the South and over East Scotland.
(Radar and satellite image at 0905 this morning - check the latest here)
As skies break during the morning, most places will end up with a dry, quite pleasant afternoon with sunny spells, as a transient ridge moves across the country from the West. This'll make it ideal for Wimbledon and for the start of the second Test between England and South Africa at Trent Bridge, before cloud increases in the West bringing some rain to Northern Ireland and to the Western Isles later. It'll feel quite pleasant in a light or moderate West to North West then South Westerly wind, with top temperatures 19 to 22C over England and Wales and 15 to 18C further North.
You'll see some further sunshine into the evening particularly in the East and South, but while cloud amounts will increase, it'll stay dry here overnight. Northern Ireland, West Scotland and later Cumbria, in particular, will see some rain perhaps with heavier bursts, but much of any rain over East Scotland and northern England should be light and patchy. A South West wind will be light in the South but will freshen in the North, giving some strong gusts for a while over exposed parts of North and West Scotland. It'll be a mild night though, with minimum temperatures mostly between 11 and 15C.
Saturday sees the brightest weather in the South and South East where sunny intervals are likely. There'll be variable amounts of cloud, but it'll stay dry for Wimbledon. Over the rest of England and Wales a, good deal of cloud is expected and that'll give patchy rain or drizzle. Cumbria may see heavier bursts of rain, but much of it elsewhere should be light and patchy with a few brighter intervals. Trent Bridge could also see some rain or drizzle, but it'll be annoying more than anything and shouldn't disrupt play too much if at all. Scotland and Northern Ireland, however, will be more generally unsettled and breezier. Here some heavier bursts of rain are possible that'll clear from the North for a while, before returning later.
South West wind will be fresh in the North but lighter further South where it'll feel more humid with top temperatures 20 to 24C. In the North however 15 to 19C is more likely.
Little change is expected into the evening, with most places keeping a good deal of cloud. There'll be further rain or drizzle in places, with the heaviest bursts over Scotland and Northern Ireland where clearer, somewhat cooler weather will move in from the North West overnight. Across England and Wales, any rain should be light and patchy, with a fair amount of dry weather. A mostly moderate or fresh South West wind will veer Westerly and decrease in the North later. For most, it'll be a very mild somewhat humid night. Temperatures over England and Wales falling no lower than 14 to 16C, but in the cooler air across Scotland and Northern Ireland, 8 to 11C is more likely.
Sunday sees patchy rain over England and Wales clearing from the North West, then it's a summery outlook into next week when it becomes increasingly sunny and very warm or hot again especially in the South.
