Spain and Portugal still in the grip of a heatwave this week after 44.5C was reached in Cordoba on Sunday. More moderate heat elsewhere in southern Europe, but northern Europe including the UK at the mercy of cool Atlantic flow.
The week ahead is less unsettled than recently across much of England and Wales, as the jet stream, which has been languishing just south of Britain, drifts north to allow high pressure to build in from the southwest. So the weather should feel more summery, though we are not looking at a heatwave anytime soon. Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England always more prone to Atlantic systems rolling in – so a threat of cloud and rain or showers at times through the week, but also some drier interludes.
Jet stream shifts further north mid-week, allowing warmer and more settled conditions over England and Wales from Wednesday
If you’re after heat, Spain and Portugal are experiencing a heatwave, but quite an extreme one at that. On Sunday afternoon, the temperature reached 44C in Cordoba in the southern Spain, with southern parts of Portugal seeing temperatures as high as 42C. As a result, heat warning is in force for some parts of the Iberian Penninsula. Most parts of Spain and Portugal look to remain hot for the rest of the week, with Cordoba reaching 40C, Seville reaching 36C, Madrid reaching 35C.
If you after some heat but not quite so extreme, southern France is looking to warm up to 30-33C by mid-week, particularly towards the Mediterranean. Much of Italy hot this week too, temperatures 28-32C, perhaps as high as 34C over Tuscany later in the week. Much of the Balkans seeing similar temperatures, though across the southern Balkan states and Greece seeing 34-35C.
A persistent strong ridge of high pressure and light winds over southern Europe is bringing the fine and hot weather, not unusual, of course, for high summer. However, northern Europe has been and will continue to be a fair bit cooler and more changeable thanks to a persistent and strong westerly jet stream pushing east across the UK, North Sea, Denmark, Poland and the Baltic for much of the week.
Unfortunately, it looks like we will be stuck with the westerly jet stream across the UK for the foreseeable, looking at the recent extended models runs out to the middle of July. The jet stream is shifting north at times, bringing warmer and more settled conditions to southern parts like this week. But the jet stream drifting south at times too, bringing cooler and more unsettled conditions for all – which is indicated for the weekend onwards into early next week, with a fairly deep area of low pressure for the time of year forecast to move close to or across Scotland.
So, no signs of the heat over southern Europe coming our way anytime soon, but it may at least feel a little more summery for southern areas this week, particularly from mid-week as a ridge of high pressure builds in. We could see highs of 23-24C across southern England on Friday.
