October

After this year's wet August, dry and warm September, we'll have a look at October's usual offerings.

As we head into October, you would start to expect more severe and frequent storms, deep low pressures from the Atlantic. Michael Fish's favourite Storm October 1987  (15/16th) , last year St. Jude’s Storm 28th October as examples. Meteorological autumn begins at the start of Sept, being the 3 months until the end of November but many view the Autumnal Equinox as the real kick-off for autumn, which this year was Sept 23rd, the time of equal day and night. 12hours each.

Sorry to mention it, but October will be the time when we really notice the nights drawing in and of course the clocks go back on October 26th. With less daylight hours to warm the earth, temperatures begin to fall. With longer nights, radiation can occur for longer and any heat from the day disappears off, leading to chilly nights and more chance of frost.

This is the month that plumbers begin to get busy as many people turn their heating back on after the summer months, only to find things may not be as they expected. 

(Data from the Met Office)

Considering we've been seeing temperatures in the high teen, low 20s this September, if this October sticks to the average temperatures we'll need to dig out a scarf or the woolly jumpers. The long month of October with 31 days, would be wet 60% of the time in Scotland but still reasonably dry in the south with nearly 2/3rds of the month dry during an average October. Check out the monthly forecast. which shows up some fine weather.

If you think of Halloween nights in films, they are often still and misty, with the leaves on the ground. This is the month of fog and cool mornings, conkers and crunchy leaves. I saw a V of birds in the sky yesterday, that honking noise will be around more over the next few weeks. The weather is all important for migratory birds, low cloud and fog can be fatal. Often birds from Scandinavia crossing the North Sea encounter haar or fret, or very strong winds which can leave them disorientated and exhausted.

The seas around the UK are still relatively warm at this time of year, due to the cooling lag in water. As with any month, if we get a blocking anticyclone, then there will be light winds, more fog, and more chance of frost. There could be those lovely autumn days with blue skies and sunshine or just dull cloudy Stratocumulus blanketing for days. If the jetstream lines up closer to the UK then we can see many low pressures feeding over the UK, bringing more rain, winds, 'leaves on the railway lines' and autumn storms causing disruption.

We are likely to see snow on the Scottish Mountains, as on average there are 5 days of air frost in Cairngorm. There are still a few patches of snow left from last year's bumper snow season. That being confined to the highlands of Scotland, as you remember, everywhere else barely saw any all winter. October can bring plunges of cold Arctic air, leading to night time frosts and showers with hail, sleet, even snow in the north. There is still enough warmth in the soil to keep any wintry precipitation from settling at low levels.

It will be 'Leaf Peeping' season in the States, that's glorious autumn tree colours to us. And that is the beauty of October, red leaves, moody fog, sunshine you know to be grateful for before the winter, a few juicy storms on the weather charts to get the Netweather forums all excited and that real sense of change in the seasons. It's a great time and I may just be extra fond of it as it's my birthday month but hoorah for real Autumn.