Hurricane Season5 - Very severe TC Phailin

10th Oct TD Narda still sittng out in eastern Pacific, but 80% chance of a cyclone developing off west coast of Mexico.
The western Pacific continues to produce storms, one right out in the Pacific just at TD status and TS (tropical Storm) Nari heading west to the Philippines. Philippines Met. Service have their own naming convention so this storm is called Santi here. Nari/Santi should strenghten to Typhoon status later today. The main north island of Luzon will be feeling the storm effects Friday into Saturday as the cyclone is forecast to move straight across the island.

In the Bay of Bengal, TC Phailin is strengthening, up to  'very severe cyclonic storm' status as given by the Indian Met. organisation. There aren't typhoons or hurricanes in this area of the world only Cyclones. Warnings are out for fishermen, and landfall is expected at the north Andra Pradesh and Odisha coast on the evening 12th Oct. Forecasts putting it at an equivalent of a Cat. 2 hurricane. Around 25cm of rain has been forecast, moving ito West Bengal, the mountain quickly weaken the cyclone but the rains will be intense and flooding is inevitable, along with storm surge coastal flooding. This area is prone to devastating flooding as cyclones in pushing the waters of the Bay of Bengal up over the low lying lands of coastal NE India and Bangladesh.



8th Oct
Typhoon Danas is forecast to move right between South Korea and SW Japan, staying over the sea as it moves NE into the Sea of Japan. From now Danas is weakening but warnings are in place for Kyushu and Busan, and later in the week the extratropical storm will cross northern Honshu.
7th Oct
Typhoon Fitow landed on coast of Shacheng, south of Wenzhou, Fujian province early this morning with high waves, torrential rain and winds of nearly 100mph. The Chinese Meteorological Administration reported in Zhejiang Province, the precipitation was 251-286mm
 Provinces of Zhejiang, Anhui and Jiangxi in eastern China still have warnings for severe rainstorms today (Monday). Northern Taiwan including Taipei also has heavy rain warnings,linked to Fitow. Weakening Fitow will carry on moving West/SW into China, with more heavy rain.
Back out in the Western Pacific is Typhoon Danas, heading for Japan. Kyushu, the southern most main island of Japan, already has a warning in place for Gales, Storm surge, High waves and thunderstorms. Danas is already near to Okinawa expected to affect Kyushu by Tuesday. South Korea may also be affected if the typhoon takes a path north of Kyushu. Danas is predicted to weaken as it moves into the East Sea/Sea of Japan’s cooler waters throughout Wednesday. Eastern Japan, including Tokyo, will avoid the worst of the typhoon.
Remnants of TS Karen are bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms to western Florida, still with rip currents and coastal flooding warnings in place.
TS Narda is well out at sea in the eastern Pacific

4th October
In the Western Pacific the storms just keep on coming, TD 23, is near Guam and heading north towards Japan and South Korea for Tues/Weds next week, strengthening all the way. Typhoon Fitow has had a real change of path and now is forecast to head off to eastern China, landfall on Mon7th. So a better forecast for the Korean GP this weekend, as earlier forecasts had the storm heading straight for the Korean peninsula.

TS Karen is still in the Gulf of Mexico, with a hurricane watch in effect for Grand Isle LOUISIANA to West of Destin FLORIDA
3rd October, so a watch is within 48 hours. Tropical Storm watch also covers the LA, MS, AL, FL panhandle coasts
Warnings are out for storm surge, levels rising 3 to 4 ft in places, and heavy rain fall up to 8" with isolated 12" possible. And of course the stormy winds. Karen is proving rather difficult to forecast, a spread of tracks for actual landfall and complications with her intensity. However, she will be arriving at the weekend.

Update Tropical Storm Karen now heading north, could reach Hurricane status briefly  before hitting the coast of LA,MS,AL,FL at the weekend. 

earlier - This may be the time the Atlantic Hurricane season decides to spring into action, just to be awkward, or prove a point. The current lull is being broken at this moment by unofficial Tropical Storm Karen in the Gulf of Mexico. Politics is interfering with the forecasting as the Hurricane Hunter planes which fly through the storms, sending back valuable observations, are feeling the bite of the US governmental shutdown.

03/10/2013 1300. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...AND HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... ISSUED BY THE (US) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/10/2/with-tropical-stormloominghurricanehunterscopewithshutdown.html


1st October
Whilst the Atlantic is relatively quiet in cyclone terms currently, it's all go in the western Pacific. 3 named storms today. Typhoon Wutip has made landfall in central Vietnam. TS Sepat is east Japan,staying out at sea but there are High wave advisories out. TS Fitow, currently well east of the Philippine but travelling north and may reach South Korea by the start of next week.

Wutip is the most powerful typhoon to hit Vietnam in the past seven years, causing widespread damage and flooding on Monday. Over a 1,000 houses lost their roofs, many schools and clinics were also damaged, the local communication system was out of order and there were power outages in many provinces. Large scale damage to thousands of  hectares of rubber plantation and pepper crops. A 100-meter section of a sea dyke collapsed. There were delays to flights. Wutip now moves towards Laos and then NE Thailand.

2 months left traditionally in the Atlantic hurricane season. TD 11 is now TS Jerry, in mid Atlantic not troubling any land and not moving much. It is forecast to weaken and turn NE.

30th Sept
Mass evacuations have been ordered in central Vietnam ahead of the arrival of Typhoon Wutip. Thousands of people are moving in Quang Tri coastal province as Wutip is forecast to move through today and then into Laos. Thousands of fishing boats have been advised to not go to sea today, after several boats have already sunk in the South China Sea. Storm surge and large waves will be a real danger as Wutip , (or Paolo, Bao No. 10) arrives.
In the mid Atlantnic is newly formed TD 11

28th Sept
South China Sea, Typhoon Wutip is moving west towards Vietnam. Currently warnings have been issue for parts of southern China;Guangdong coast, coast of Hainan, Qiongzhou Strait and the Beibu Gulf for severe rainstorms.

25th Sept

Forecast to stay south of the main islands of Japan.

22nd Typhoon Usagi made landfall at Shanwei, Guangdong Province today, east of Hong Kong with maximum winds of 100mph. Hong Kong still has a Signal 8 warning in place (ranging from 1 standby,3,8,9,10 Hurricane). Hundreds of flights have been cancelled, a major shipping route closed for a time, the tide was 0.6m above normal for Hong Kong in the gale force winds. Usagi will weaken as it continues inland but there will be more strong winds and very heavy rain for Guangdong and Guangxi, in southern China.

Well south of Japan is Tropical Storm Pabuk, which may get far enough north to influence Honshu, later this week.

20th  Super Typhoon Usagi is moving between southern Taiwan and north of Luzon in the Phillipines. Extreme heavy rain warnings are out for much of Taiwan. The track image shown is from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre. Advanced warnings are being issued in Hong Kong, although there will be variations in the actual path of the cyclone.


17th The eastern side of Hokkaido, northern Japanese island currently has warnings for heavy rain and flooding as an extra-tropical low moves past. This is the remnants of Tropical Storm Man-Yi, which gave southern Honshu a glancing blow at the weekend, rather near to the already tsunami stricken Fukushima nuclear plant.
In the South China Sea is Tropical Depression and out in the western Pacific is TS Usagi, heading for southern Taiwan (or maybe furhter south and to Luzon) at the weekend. Forecast to be a Typhoon by then.
Ingird is now inland in Mexico, still bringing heavy rain as a Low and Humberto is a Tropical Storm, way out in the Atlantic

16th Hurricane Ingrid continues to harass the east coast of Mexico bringing very heavy rain, and stormy conditions
On the other side of Mexico TD Manuel is bringing heavy rain to the west coast.

14th Sept, the Atlantic storm season was pootling along without a hurricane, then Humberto stepped up on the 11th and down again. Now TS Ingrid has just reached Hurricane status Sat 21Z, off the east coast of Mexico.

Eastern Canada is having a wet weekend, thanks to the remnants of TS Gabrielle. However, fears that flash flooding could cause damage seem to be unfounded as no excessive flooding has been reported in any of the Maritime provinces.

13th
I think TS Gabrielle has been on the scene long enough that Jonathan Trappe and his slightly crazy balloon boat escapade might have tried to avoid the cyclone. Mr Trappe is currently somewhere in a Newfoundland forest surrounded by helium balloons after crash landing, luckily before crossing the Atlantic. The weather is set to get worse before it gets better there, as strong winds and heavy rain move over eastern Canada as Gabrielle merges with a cold front.

Humberto has now been downgraded to a Tropical Storm, a short appearance as a hurricane. The upper winds have sheared off the convection with lower level winds going in a different direction. However, the vertical shear will ease off as Humberto approaches warmer waters so he may strengthen again to Hurricane status.

New tropical storm Ingrid has appeared in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm isn't moving much in the Bay of Campeche but is forecast to bring torrential rain to eastern Mexico, especially by Sunday. Slow moving means the rain just keeps on coming . 10-15" of rain is forecast, up to 25" for the mountains with the risk of flash floods and mud slides.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/12/helium-balloons-jonathan-trappe-up-transatlantic

11th September
Humberto is a Hurricane! It is also well away from land.
Now well far west of the Cape Verde Islands, heading north before steering westwards through Friday onwards.

Earlier :Humberto still hasn’t made Hurricane status, so still no hurricanes so far in the Atlantic season. Humberto stays in warm enough waters (for strengthening) for about another 2 days, after which vertical shear also increases. However, an eye is appearing on and off.
 
TS Gabrielle is now to the West of Bermuda. The tropical storm force winds are decreasing but thundery showers persist. A couple of international flights were cancelled yesterday and ferries. The PortBermudaWebcam showed a stormy scene yesterday.

Extra tropical Gabrielle is forecast to clip eastern Canada by Friday
Her remnants will affect Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, probably bringing heavy rain and stronger winds.

Also watching the Bay of Campeche, near Mexico, as an area of development has been identified there.
 
 10th Sept
Gabrielle is back, as a Tropical Storm in the western Atlantic. She will affect Bermuda today with the closest point of approach to be within 25 miles west of the Island around midnight tonight (local time). Warnings are out for tropical storm force winds, heavy rainfall, and thunderstorms to last through Wednesday morning. Conditions will slowly begin to settle during Wednesday afternoon.  Gabrielle is moving northwards, so will engage in the weather systems for the northern Atlantic.