Eastern England saw all the action yesterday. Top temperature for Bridlington, E.Yorkshire at 21.9C (71F) and a rash of thunderstorms, which passed over in the afternoon. Much of eastern Britain starts today with lovely sunshine.
Low pressure is out west from Ireland and the main rain band will spread over N.Ireland this evening and tonight. Before that, N.Ireland will see a few bright spells and sharp showers. Temperatures will only reach 15C with a fresh southerly wind, which will be strong in the Irish Sea, giving lively ferry crossings. Western Wales and SW England are already seeing heavy showers this morning. They ease from Devon and Cornwall by midday but south Wales will see more hefty downpours. Temperatures will sit around 15C with a fresh (coastal strong) S’ly wind. For the rest of Britain, it will be a mixture of sunshine and showers. A wet day for Manchester. Northwest England, the West Midlands and central southern Scotland see the most showers this morning, and hardly any over southern England this afternoon. Although it will be a blustery day, out of the southerly wind, it will feel pleasantly warm at 19C England and up to 17C Scotland with lighter winds.
Friday evening sees the band of heavier rain (cold front) over Northern Ireland and the Irish Sea. With the low centred over N.Ireland (7C), the rain continues here but the band pulls eastwards through Wales and across Britain. There will be some heavy rain in the night for Ox. and Bucks. and then eastern England.
For Saturday morning, the cold front will be pulling into the North Sea taking the last rain from East Anglia and NE Scotland. Low pressure will sit over N.Ireland and Scotland, so only light winds here. Eastern England will have some fine weather with a scattering of showers over western Britain. The heavy showers over N.Ireland and Scotland will also affect central parts of Britain around lunchtime. The showers will ease by evening and fade overnight as the low moves off to Norway.
A bit of a lull to start Sunday, before the next low pressure begins to come in from the Celtic Sea. Some light patchy rain for Devon, Cornwall, west Wales in the morning but really the heavy rain stalls off southern Ireland. A few scattered showers for N.Ireland, Scotland and NE England but elsewhere a cloudy day but fine.
The forecast models diverge at this point, the American GFS and Global and European ECMWF, all pull low pressure centre down into Bay of Biscay, and so fronts stay near Channel. The UK Met Office model pulls low into northern France and so brings heavy rain over Britain all day. So for Monday, it looks like southern counties of England are likely to see some heavy showery rain, with more brightness over northern Britain (and still a few sharp showers). With a light northerly wind, Tuesday will be more settled, just the odd western shower and some sunny spells.
