Warmer UK weather is on the way, but be prepared for rain too. Northwestern Scotland, closer to higher pressure is likely to stay driest.
April has been a rather topsy-turvy month, not just in Britain but over a large part of Europe. The first half of April had exceptional warmth in central and southern Europe, with southerly and south-westerly winds pulling heat up from north Africa. Daytime temperatures widely reached 25 to 30C and reached as high as 33C in southern Europe. In contrast, the past week has been unusually cold in central Europe, with daytime maximum temperatures widely below 10C and at times running 6 to 8C below the long-term normal. Snow has also been reported widely, such as snowfalls in Berlin and Munich. This has been caused by a switch in the prevailing weather pattern, with high pressure becoming centred in the eastern North Atlantic, sending northerly winds into a large area of Europe.
Britain has also seen a big switch in the weather since mid-April. The first half of April may not have seemed that warm to many people because it was predominantly dull and wet for many, but temperatures were about 3C above the 1991-2020 long-term average in most of England and Wales. But since mid-April, temperatures have regularly been below average, with Britain often lying on the western flank of the cold northerlies going into central Europe. Although temperatures on individual days have not been unusually low, the persistence and duration of this cold regime have been notable.
During the coming week, we are looking set to move back into a weather regime that has recurred frequently during 2024 so far. The weather will warm up somewhat, but at the same time, it will be cloudy and wet for most of the country, particularly in Wales and the southern half of England. This wet weather is likely to extend northwards into southern and eastern Scotland. Only north-west Scotland is likely to be drier than average, again continuing a pattern that has been frequent this year so far.
The change is underway today via a band of light rain spreading northwards through England and Wales, which is affecting much of the English Midlands and central and eastern Wales. This band of rain will gradually fizzle out during the day, but during the afternoon and evening, some heavier rain will push into the south, especially southeast England. It will be generally cloudy in England and Wales, except for the far north of England, which will hold onto some brighter weather. For Scotland and Northern Ireland, as well as the far north of England, it will be a brighter day with scattered showers developing, especially during the afternoon.
Today, temperatures will remain below average. Although a warmer air mass will be moving northwards through England and Wales, extensive cloud cover will suppress daytime temperatures in these regions. Further north, it will be brighter, but we will remain in the cold air mass of Arctic origin. Maximum temperatures will mainly be between 9 and 11C, although parts of the south coast of England may get to 12 or 13C before the heavier rain arrives.
Tonight, inland parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland will see another frost, with temperatures dropping below freezing around the Scottish Highlands. Cloudier skies over England and Wales will prevent a frost from developing, and there will be persistent rain in central, eastern and southern England.
On Sunday, the persistent rain will spread northwards through the eastern side of both England and Scotland, with brighter weather in the west, particularly in Northern Ireland, spreading slowly east to other parts of the UK during the afternoon and evening. Due to cloud and persistent rain, it will be another cold day for late April in the east of England and Scotland, with temperatures climbing no higher than around 8C in most of eastern Scotland and north-east England. It will be warmer in the west and south, with temperatures of 12 to 14C in the south and southwest of England once the cloud and rain clears eastwards.
Warmer weather will establish on Monday and Tuesday of next week, especially in eastern Britain, with southerly winds circulating around a low-pressure system to the west. There will be some sunny spells, too, though some rain and showers are circulating around the low, especially in the west and southwest of Britain. Temperatures by Wednesday will climb to between 16 and 20C in most of eastern England, which will feel somewhat different to recent days. Into Thursday and Friday, it will remain warm, but it has the potential to turn wet at times with slow-moving areas of persistent rain, particularly in the south. Meanwhile, the end of next week and into next weekend looks set to be predominantly dry in Scotland, with plenty of sunshine for western Scotland, though easterly winds may result in cloudier weather near the east coast of Scotland. There is currently plenty of uncertainty over whether this drier, more settled weather will push southwards into other regions of the UK during the Bank Holiday weekend.
