7th June
The remains of TS Andrea are now passing over New York, having dumped heavy rain and caused flooding, from Florida right up the east coast of the US. Gale warnings remain in force for New Jersey, MA and Rhode Island and still the potential for another 2-4" of rain. See image - the Canadian Met. service are also warning of heavy rain and strong winds 'Les Suetes'. (see other article) Her track will take the low pressure over Nova Scotia on Saturday and Newfoundland on Sunday, then across the Atlantic.
#Andrea was highest trending on Twitter, even Will i am (the Voice, BEPs) commented, not sure of his point, but he got over a thousand re-tweets. There were official warnings of dangerous surf, and then excited tweets from surfers in MA.
So what next for Andrea? Her remnants will come over the UK mid week, but at this time of year, it is no major concern. However, late Tuesday into Wednesday, we will see a huge change in our weather. For most of June, the UK has been enjoying a dry, settled spell, with warm sunshine for many. As the low (with Andrea's diminished energy and rain) moves in, there will be spells of rain and fresh to strong winds, for just one day.
5th June
First named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season has formed. Appearing in the Gulf of Mexico is Andrea, a Tropical Storm.
The West coast of Florida is under Tropical storm warning, which applies to the next 36 hours. Tropical Storms have wind speeds between 39 MPH and 73 MPH. Andrea is not expected to reach Hurricane status. The main threat is from heavy rain and coastal flooding. The predicted path takes Andrea along the Big Bend area, where the Florida panhandle meets NW Florida. Rainfall totals will be between 4-6” but isolated 8” (20cm) are expected. Georgia (up to 6”) and the Carolinas (up to 4”) will see the heavy rain on Friday. Next, will be the Eastern Seaboard of the US, seeing heavy rain on Saturday as Andrea moves up towards the Atlantic.
As this disturbance has only just developed a tropical storm centre for its circulation, its presence on the American models is new and so forecasting its path up the east coast of the US and across the Atlantic, will take a few model runs to settle in. However, Florida is looking at a stormy, wet Thursday.
5th June
The low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico now has a high chance 60% of developing into a tropical cyclone. The weather system is already producing sea gales and thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain and strong winds over Florida into Thursday. There are also coastal flooding and tornado concerns for central west and SW Florida.
4th June
All quiet in the Atlantic at the moment, but there are hints appearing of active atmospheric motion. A weak low pressure in Gulf of Mexico, with showers and thunderstorms but it is not thought to have a high chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone, within 48 hours (2pm EDT). There is ascent in the air but the upper air isn’t quite in sync to give a stronger circulation, this time. Currently it has NHC (National Hurrican Center) have given the area between Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba, a moderate (30-50%) change of developing into a Tropical Storm, which is an increased risk on yesterday.
31st May
Barbara no longer has a distinct identity, yet there are still warnings of heavy rain for SE Mexico. Currently no Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern Pacific or Atlantic.
30th May
Barbara was a Cat.1 hurricane briefly, before making landfall. Schools and ports were closed in southwest Mexico and 2 people are reported dead and 14 fishermen missing. Several feet of storm surge caused flooding, with heavy rainfall creating mudslides.In the state of Chiapas, there was a reported rainfall of 16.02", 407mm in 18 hours. Barbara has now been downgraded to TD - Tropical Depression and just a depression, a Low. Seen on IR Satellite picture from 1145z nearly into Gulf of Mexico.
Update 29th May 2013
And Tropical Storm Barbara has arrived, right in the spot highlighted yesterday. off the south coast of Mexico. Landfall is expected later on Wednesday, local time. There will be strong winds with this storm but often in this part of the world the main problems come from the heavy rains and landslides. Around 6-10" of rain is forecast.
Tues 28th
Hint today that something could appear in the Eastern Pacific, off the west coast of Mexico. (see NHC noaa image)
May 2013
Tornado season is well underway in the US, with devastating effect already this May.
Next on the calendar is the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs (traditionally) from 1st June until 30th November
This week is Hurricane preparedness week in the US, This to remind people that storms bring damaging winds, and heavy rain leading to flooding but also
storm surge and dangerous currents. To think about having a plan and the possiblity of evacuation. Sombre thoughts but the idea is that forward thinking now could help just in case. Also this week is to highlight what the warnings and watches mean.http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/These are US based forecasts, all these large storms come under the heading of Tropical Cyclone, low pressures, but are known as Typhoons, Hurricanes, tropical storms depending on strength and location in the world. There was a time, the term Willy-Willy was used in Australia for cyclones but this has now been restricted to dust devils, with the term Cyclone being used officially for storms. And, considering that there was Cyclone Willy, in May 1994, that would have been too much.
The Australiasian season runs from about November to April.
Japanese typhoon season peaks from July to October
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htmI will be keeping an eye on the cyclone development around the world, waiting to see if we get Hurricane Andrea or Barry.
