Updated 13th February
Covering the period 20th February - 14th March
Mean temperatures will be 1 to 1.5C above the 1981-2010 average over much of the country, but in Northern Ireland and western Scotland they will be less than 1C above.
Rainfall totals will be above normal in Northern Ireland, south-west Scotland and north-west England, below normal in eastern Scotland and north-east England, and mostly near normal elsewhere.
Sunshine totals will be a little below normal in most western parts of the UK but rather above normal in eastern Britain and also generally in central and southern parts of England.
Monday 20th February - Sunday 26th Febuary
With high pressure dominant to the south for much of this week, it will be mild, dry in the south, wet in the north-west, with west to south-westerly winds, but there are signs that it will turn more unsettled and cooler from the north-west towards the end of the week.
The 20th will be a dry and mild day for much of the country but with persistent rain in north-west Scotland. Western areas will have plenty of cloud but sheltered eastern parts will see some sunshine, and with the Foehn effect in operation it may reach 12-14C in some north-eastern parts where the sun breaks through. A frontal system will move slowly south-eastwards through the country on the 21st and 22nd, but turning very light and patchy as it heads into southern and eastern parts of England, with brighter conditions and near-normal temperatures following behind in a polar maritime airstream.
The nights of the 21st/22nd and 22nd/23rd will see some slight frost, but on the 23rd a mild south-westerly flow will return with a general northwest-southeast split in the weather, with the wettest weather in the north-west, and the south mostly dry and quite sunny. However, by the 25th/26th fronts will be moving freely from west to east introducing a changeable westerly type to all parts, and temperatures just a little above normal for the time of year.
Relative to the 1981-2010 reference period, temperatures will be 2C above average in Northern Ireland and much of western England, Wales and Scotland, but the east of England and Scotland will be 3 or 4C above in many areas.
Rainfall will show a marked split with central, eastern and southern England and eastern Scotland having below average rainfall, but rainfall will be above normal in the north and west of Scotland, and mostly near normal elsewhere.
Sunshine totals will show a similar split with central, southern and eastern England seeing mostly above average sunshine and other regions generally cloudier than average.
Monday 27th February - Sunday 5th March
This period will have a changeable west to north-westerly type with temperatures fluctuating either side of the long-term average. A couple of colder northerly or north-westerly incursions are likely; there is significant uncertainty over how cold, but there is potential for some wintry showers for Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England in particular. Lasting snowfalls are very unlikely though, with the mobile nature of the weather pattern seeing frontal systems sweep milder air in from the west at frequent intervals.
Temperatures will be up to 1C below normal in Scotland, but about 1C above in south-east England, with other regions mostly very close to normal. Rainfall totals will be below normal in eastern Scotland and north-east England, but near or rather above normal elsewhere with Wales and south-west England most likely to have an excess of rainfall. Sunshine totals will be near average in most western areas, but generally above normal in the east, particularly eastern Scotland.
Rest of the month
Monday 6th March - Tuesday 14th March
TThe early part of this period will be mild and changeable with westerly winds and a return of high pressure to the south, which will keep southern and eastern parts of the UK relatively dry. Towards mid-March, a more blocked pattern may develop with high pressure moving towards Scandinavia pulling in south-easterly winds, bringing temperatures close to or just below normal, and generally drier and more settled but often relatively cloudy conditions.
Overall, temperatures are expected to be about 1C above the long-term average, and nearer 2C above in eastern Scotland. Rainfall totals are most likely to be below normal except in the south-west of the country. Sunshine totals will tend to be close to or just above normal for most of the country.