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Monthly weather forecast for the UK

Rather unsettled but quieter spells for many in the second week of August

Updated 24th July 2017 - Covering the period 31st July - 22nd August

Overview

Mean temperatures will mostly be very close to the long-term normal, though they will be 0.5-1.0C above near North Sea coasts.

Rainfall totals will be above normal in south Wales and south-west England but below normal in eastern Scotland and north-east England, and near normal elsewhere.

Sunshine totals will be below normal in the northern half of Scotland, particularly the north-west,but rather above normal in southern Scotland and northern England, particularly in south-east Scotland and north-east England. Elsewhere they will tend to be close to normal.

Monthly weather forecast
Temperature
Sunshine
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Monday 31st July to Sunday 6th August

This period will be unsettled with mainly south-westerly winds early in the week, the winds tending to veer westerly later in the week.

It will be bright and showery for most of the country on the 31st July but cloud and an area of more persistent rain will spread into Ireland and will track across other parts of the UK during the evening and overnight. The 1st and 2nd August will generally be dull and damp, with temperatures close to the seasonal average by day, but rather above by night. Eastern parts of the UK will tend to have only small rainfall amounts but it will be wet in many parts of the west, especially upland parts of Wales, Cumbria and western Scotland.

Between the 3rd and 6th the weather will often be brighter with showers rather than persistent rain, although there will still be some belts of more general rain moving across the country at times. These will tend to move through quite quickly, unlike earlier in the week. Temperatures will mostly be close to or just below the seasonal norm, both by day and night.

Mean temperatures will generally be very close to the 1981-2010 long-term average across the UK, but will be 0.5-1.0C below in many western areas, and 0.5-1.0C above near North Sea coasts.

Rainfall totals will be above normal in Northern Ireland and much of Wales and western England, but generally near normal elsewhere.

Sunshine will generally be below normal, especially in the south-west, but eastern Scotland may have slightly above average sunshine.

Monday 7th August to Sunday 13th August

The westerlies will be slacker than usual over the British Isles this week and this will allow slack ridges of high pressure to head across from the main Azores High, often covering central and northern parts of Britain. The weather will thus be drier than normal for much of the country and also sunnier than normal for many parts of the country, particularly northern England and southern Scotland, but not particularly warm, with some cool air being pulled down from the north or north-west at times. Some brief hotter, thundery episodes are probable in the south, and the northern half of Scotland will remain more prone to weather systems coming in off the North Atlantic, though these will tend to be less frequent and potent than average for the time of year.

Mean temperatures are expected to be very close to normal again, but probably up to 1.0C above in the south-east due to occasional plumes of hotter air coming up from the south-east. Rainfall totals are likely to be near or rather above normal in many parts of southern England, but otherwise generally below normal. Sunshine totals will be close to normal in southern England and rather below normal in the northern half of Scotland, but mostly above normal elsewhere, especially over southern Scotland and northern England.


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Monday 14th August to Tuesday 22nd August

This period will see the weather turn more unsettled again with frequent north-westerly winds, and pressure will fall over Scandinavia. Ridges of high pressure will sometimes head into the south and west of Britain from the Azores, bringing brief quieter interludes with dry weather and variable amounts of cloud. With winds mostly blowing from a cool direction it will not be particularly warm but temperatures on the whole will be about average for the time of year. Thunderstorms will not be numerous but one or two showery days may produce thunder mainly in eastern England. Rainfall totals are expected to be below normal in south-western Britain but rather above in most parts of Scotland and also the north and east of England. Sunshine totals will mostly be close to normal, and probably a little above in sheltered eastern and southern areas, but below normal in north-west Scotland.

Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast, written by Ian Simpson is updated once a week - every Monday. As with any longer term forecast, it's not possible to go into much detail and accuracy can tend to drop off toward the end of the period but it can still act as a very good guide to the weather during the upcoming month.

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