Updated 17th October
Covering the period 24th October - 15th November
Mean temperatures for the period will be very close to the 1981-2010 average in southern England, but much of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England will be about 1C cooler than average.
Rainfall totals will be a little above normal in most parts of southern England, and close to normal in some North Sea coastal parts of England, but below normal elsewhere, especially so in the north and west of Scotland.
Sunshine totals will be well above normal in northern and western Scotland and north-western England, and rather above normal in Northern Ireland, but it will be duller than average in the south and east of England. Intervening areas will generally have near average sunshine.
Monday 24th October - Sunday 30th October
This period will start with south-easterly winds, and relatively warm but wet conditions across the south, and colder drier brighter weather in the north. Later in the week, the colder drier brighter weather will spread southwards to cover the whole country, with high pressure building extensively to the north and north-west.
On the 24th and 25th, there will be slow moving rain belts over Northern Ireland, Wales and the west and south of England, bringing cloudy weather and some rain at times, which will be quite persistent and heavy over Northern Ireland. It will be drier further north and east, but mostly cloudy, especially near North Sea coasts, though the west and north of Scotland will be quite sunny. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal norm by day, reaching 12 to 15C in most parts of the country, but will be rather above normal by night.
Between the 26th and 28th, it will become dry over Northern Ireland with some sunny spells developing, but rain belts will remain close to south-western Britain, perhaps grazing Cornwall and south Devon at times, and it will generally be cloudy in the south and east. However, much of central and western Scotland and north-west England will be sunny. Scattered showers are expected to develop near to North Sea coasts, and these will head a fair way inland across south-east Scotland and north-east England.
On the 29th and 30th most places will be dry and sunny, but scattered showers are likely to persist near North Sea coasts, with a light easterly or north-easterly flow. In the second half of the week temperatures will generally fall below normal, and some frosts are likely in sheltered inland parts of north-western Britain.
Mean temperatures will be up to 1C above the 1981-2010 long-term average in coastal parts of southern and eastern England, but for most of the rest of the country, it will be about 1C cooler than average.
Monday 31st October - Sunday 6th November
Blocked weather patterns will persist during this week with extensive high pressure to the north, especially the north-east, maintaining frequent easterly and south-easterly winds. Low pressure systems will start to move in from the North Atlantic into early November, but these will be slow moving and further south than usual, and it is unlikely that the traditional westerlies will establish across the British Isles this week. One or two lows are expected to move in, bringing associated fronts mostly to the west and south of the country, and milder temperatures. In between, the weather will be dry and quite cold, with plenty of sunshine for many western areas but often cloudier with scattered showers in the east with the winds frequently coming in off the North Sea.
In general temperatures will be close to or just below the long-term normal. Rainfall totals are expected to be above normal in southern England, and near normal in eastern coastal parts of England, but rather below normal over Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England and north Wales. Sunshine totals will be below normal in central, southern and eastern England, and probably well below normal in the east of England, but above normal in most parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and north-west England.
Rest of the month
Monday 7th November - Tuesday 15th November
It will turn colder early in this period with a likelihood of one or two northerly blasts coming straight down from the Arctic, though at this range it is impossible to determine whether these will be cold enough to bring widespread snowfall, particularly with the Arctic remaining anomalously warm. It will turn more unsettled towards mid-November with frequent westerly and north-westerly winds, with temperatures returning close to or just above average.
Nonetheless, colder weather early in the period means that temperatures are most likely to be below normal overall, typically by around 1C. It will be drier than normal in south-western England and in Wales, but wetter than normal in the east. Sunshine totals are expected to be above normal over much of the UK.