Updated 18th March - Covering 25th March - 16th April 2024
Mean temperatures will probably not be far from the 1991-2020 long-term average during this period, though they may be up to 1C above normal in parts of southern Britain. In Scotland, temperatures will probably be widely within 0.5C of the long-term normal.
It is expected to be much wetter than normal in the south and south-west of England, and probably wetter than normal overall for most other parts of England and Wales. It will probably be drier than normal in northern and western Scotland.
Sunshine amounts are expected to be below normal in southern and eastern England and near the east coast of Scotland, but it will probably be sunnier than average in western Scotland.
This week will start off dry, sunny and on the cool side for the time of year, with potential for overnight frosts, especially in the north. However, during the mid to latter part of this week, we can expect frontal systems to repeatedly push in from the south-west, associated with low pressure in the eastern North Atlantic. A Scandinavian blocking high will prevent the fronts from making rapid progress from west to east, resulting in some slow-moving bands of rain. It will often be drier in northern Scotland, where the winds will become predominantly east to south-easterly, but elsewhere the winds will often be southerly. Southern and western Britain will have some brighter, showery weather in between the rain belts with potential for thunder, especially in the south and around west facing coasts. Temperatures will tend to rise above the seasonal normal late in the week, although this will be predominantly due to high overnight minimum temperatures, and daytime temperatures will often be on the cool side under cloud and rain.
Mean temperatures are expected to come out close to the 1991-2020 long-term average in most regions, though northern Scotland may be about 1C colder than average, as the colder air will hang on in northern Scotland during the first half of the week. Parts of southern Britain may end up about 1C above the average.
It is forecast to be drier than normal in northern Scotland, especially the north-west of Scotland, but for most other regions it will again be wetter than normal. South-west England is likely to be particularly wet, and may well be affected by frontal systems almost immediately at the beginning of the week.
Sunshine totals are expected to be below normal for most of the country, but above normal in north-west Scotland. Eastern Scotland and north-east England are particularly likely to be somewhat duller than normal for the time of year.
It looks probable that we will retain extensive high pressure to the north and north-east of Britain. The low pressure to the west looks set to weaken during this week, which will allow drier weather to push south to much of the country at times, bringing frequent easterly winds. However, there will continue to be unsettled periods, particularly in the south of Britain and particularly early in the week, with potential for frontal systems again to become slow-moving. With us now being well into spring, it looks unlikely that the easterlies will be particularly cold, and the most likely outcome is close to average temperatures.
It will probably again be wetter than average overall in the south, with the south-west of England and coastal areas bordering the English Channel most likely to be somewhat wetter than average. Drier than average conditions are forecast to be more widespread in northern Britain, particularly in northern and western Scotland. Sunshine totals are likely to be below normal in most eastern and southern parts of Britain, but may be above normal in parts of the north away from North Sea coasts, particularly western Scotland.
This period is expected to continue to see easterly winds blow more frequently than normal, thanks to frequent high pressure to the north of Britain. There is potential for a cold northerly outbreak at some point during this period, as well as one or two more unsettled periods with low pressure attempting to push in from the south-west. Overall, temperatures are most likely to be near to slightly above average in most regions, and there is likely to be a fair amount of dry, settled weather in Scotland, but with unsettled weather more frequent for the west and south of Britain, with frontal systems pushing in at times. With easterly winds blowing more frequently than normal, sunshine is likely to be below normal in most eastern parts of the UK, but it will probably be sunnier than normal in western Scotland and north-west England, and probably also in Northern Ireland. It is likely to be drier than average in Scotland, but probably again wetter than average in the south and south-west of Britain.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.