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Monthly weather forecast for the UK

Updated 17th May

Covering the period 30th May - 21st June

Changeable start and end but plenty of dry sunny weather in between

The mean temperature for this period will be within a degree of the long-term normal, but generally fractionally below normal in eastern Britain and 0.5-1.0C above in most western areas.

Rainfall totals are expected to come out above normal in central, southern and eastern England, but below normal in the west and north of Scotland and in Northern Ireland, with near-average rainfall elsewhere.

Sunshine will be below normal in eastern England and also near the east coast of Scotland, but above normal in western and northern Scotland, Northern Ireland, and north-west England. It will be close to or slightly below normal elsewhere.

Monthly weather forecast

Weekly Breakdown
Monday 30th May - Sunday 5th June
Easterly winds will dominate for most of this week, with high pressure extending from Greenland to Scandinavia, and the high will often ridge southwards towards the British Isles, giving mostly settled conditions.

However, the week will start with a deep low pressure system over the southern North Sea, giving a stiff north-easterly wind. Most places will be sunny and dry on the 30th, but there will be some low cloud near North Sea coasts and rain will spread into many parts of southern England late in the day. The rain will become widespread over eastern areas on the 31st, but will clear out into the North Sea on the 1st as the low pressure in the North Sea will fizzle out. Temperatures will be above the seasonal norm in western areas, typically reaching 19 to 22C by day, but it will be cool in the areas that are affected by the rain.

Between the 2nd and 5th June, a slack east to north-easterly flow will result in dry sunny conditions for most central and western parts of the UK, but with scattered thundery showers breaking out on some days in western areas. Some more organised rain or thundery showers may affect the south-west at times with low pressure close by. Low cloud will frequently affect North Sea coastal areas, sometimes spreading inland to the east of high ground.

The mean temperature, relative to the 1981-2010 reference period, will be about 2C above average in most central and western parts of the UK, but very close to average near North Sea coasts, where there will be cool days offset by warm nights.

Rainfall totals will be close to normal in many parts of eastern and southern England, but it will be drier than normal elsewhere, especially in the north and west of Scotland.

Sunshine totals will be below normal in most eastern coastal districts, but central and western parts of the UK will generally be sunnier than average, and it will be unusually sunny in western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Monday 6th June - Sunday 12th June
High pressure will retrogress westwards over to Greenland which will pull colder air down from the north. One or two depressions will bring belts of grey wet weather eastwards across England and Wales, with some brighter conditions mixed with thundery showers also affecting the south on brief occasions. Otherwise it will tend to be cloudy and showery and quite cool in central and eastern parts of the UK, but dry and sunny in the west, nearest to the high pressure. The tendency will be towards more unsettled conditions as the week progresses, with high pressure in the Atlantic gradually weakening.

Temperatures will generally be 1 to 2C below the long-term average in eastern Britain but close to average in most western areas and also in many parts of southern England.

It will tend to be wetter than average for most of central and eastern England, but drier than average elsewhere, particularly western Scotland. Sunshine will be above normal in western Scotland and north-west England and Northern Ireland, but it will be duller than normal in eastern Scotland and eastern, central and southern England.

Latest Weather Updates

Rest of the month
Monday 13th June - Tuesday 21st June
The weather will turn more changeable during this period, with low pressure systems frequently heading in off the North Atlantic, so it will generally be cloudier and wetter than average, and quite windy at times. The lows will track further south than usual, and therefore it is likely to be drier than average in the north and west of Scotland, and also sunny in north-west Scotland.

Temperatures will be within a degree of the long-term normal during this period, but generally 0.5 to 1C cooler in the west and north of the country, and fractionally above normal in the south and in eastern England. Eastern and central England will be wettest and cloudiest relative to average, with Northern Ireland having close to average sunshine and rainfall.

Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast, written by Ian Simpson is updated once a week - every Monday. As with any longer term forecast, it's not possible to go into much detail and accuracy can tend to drop off toward the end of the period but it can still act as a very good guide to the weather during the upcoming month.

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