Updated 29th June
Covering the period 6th July - 28th July
Warm, dry and sunny in central and eastern Britain, nearer average in the west
It will be a warm month with temperatures generally 1 to 1.5C above the 1981-2010 average, but some inland parts of eastern and central England may be nearer 2C above. Temperatures will be less than 1C above average in Northern Ireland and most of western England and Wales.
Rainfall totals will be close to average in Northern Ireland but generally below normal elsewhere, particularly in eastern Scotland and north-eastern England and East Anglia.
Sunshine totals will be close to normal in Northern Ireland, Wales and south-west England, and also north-west Scotland, but generally above normal elsewhere.
Monday 6th July - Sunday 12th July
High pressure will frequently ridge from the Azores into central Europe during this week, but with a strong Icelandic Low, especially around midweek. This will mean warmer than average conditions with winds generally blowing from south of west, but it will be changeable in the west.
The 6th will be a dry sunny day except in Northern Ireland, where persistent moderate rain will spread from the south-west by the afternoon. On the 7th, intermittent rain will be established over the west of Scotland and in Northern Ireland, while it will be dry, sunny and quite hot over England, Wales and eastern and central Scotland. The wet weather is expected to spread slowly south-eastwards on the 8th, but with rain generally not amounting to much over central, southern and eastern England. The rain will be followed by a change to cooler conditions, but highs on the 7th and 8th will widely exceed 27C in south-east England, locally approaching 30C. Another ridge of high pressure is expected to extend across southern Britain on the 9th and 10th, bringing dry sunny conditions to central, southern and eastern England and most of Wales, but Scotland, Northern Ireland and north-west England will be prone to cloudier conditions with occasional belts of rain. Changeable conditions are expected to establish across most parts of the country on the 11th and 12th with another wave of low pressure coming in.
Temperatures will be above the seasonal average during this period but it will be cooler than the previous week, with temperatures 0 to 1C above average in Northern Ireland and western Scotland, but over 2C above in East Anglia and south-east England. Elsewhere positive deviations of 1 to 2C will be typical. Rainfall totals will be below normal except in Northern Ireland and western Scotland, where they will be a little above normal. Sunshine totals will be below average in Northern Ireland and close to average in western Scotland and Cumbria, but generally above average elsewhere.
Monday 13th July - Sunday 19th July
Pressure is expected to temporarily fall over Scandinavia early in this period, allowing a very unsettled spell to take over across the British Isles, with the Icelandic Low shifting eastwards towards the north of Scotland. This will bring mostly cloudy conditions with cool days and warm nights, and belts of rain will be interspersed with brighter (but still often mostly cloudy) and showery conditions. However, during the second half of the period we can expect high pressure to establish to the south and east of the British Isles, bringing warmer, drier and sunnier conditions, especially to eastern and southern parts of the country. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal norm in western Britain during this period but about a degree above in eastern England, especially near North Sea coasts. Eastern coastal Scotland is also likely to be warmer than average, but conversely it will probably be cooler than average around the Irish Sea. Rainfall totals will generally be above normal except in counties bordering the North Sea, where they will be close to or a little below average. Sunshine totals are likely to be close to average in eastern Britain but slightly below average in the west.
Rest of the month
Monday 20th July - Tuesday 28th July
Pressure is expected to be higher than average during this period, with Britain often lying in between high pressure centres over the Azores and Scandinavia. Consequently, the weather is expected to be warmer, drier and sunnier than average but with some thundery outbreaks likely at times, particularly in central and southern parts of the British Isles. Northern and western Scotland will be more prone to frontal systems coming in off the Atlantic, but probably less frequently than usual for the time of year. Overall, most of the country will be drier, warmer and sunnier than average, but sunshine and rainfall are more likely to be close to average in southern England. Temperatures are expected to be about 2C above the long-term average, except near North Sea coasts where it will be cooler due to sea breezes.