Updated 29th April - Covering 6th May - 28th May 2024
Relative to the 1991-2020 average, temperatures are forecast to be 0.5 to 1.0C above normal for most of the country, with a warm spell in Week 2 partly offset by colder weather in Week 3.
Rainfall totals will probably be below normal in northern and western Scotland but are likely to be near or above normal in the east and south of England, despite these regions seeing relatively dry weather in Week 2.
Sunshine totals are forecast to be above normal in western Scotland and probably also in north-west England and Northern Ireland, but they may be near or slightly below normal in the east and south of England.
This week will start with an area of high pressure pushing in from the south, with low pressure moving away northwards and associated rain and showers becoming confined mainly to Scotland and Northern Ireland. This will bring warm, dry and predominantly sunny weather, especially in the south of Britain. Towards midweek, we can expect the high pressure to establish over much of the country, maintaining predominantly dry and sunny weather for a large majority of the country. There are signs that the high pressure will start to move away to the west and northwest towards the end of the week, allowing north-easterly winds to establish over the south and east of Britain. This means there is potential for some rain or showers to start pushing into southern areas, which could be associated with thunder, particularly in the south-west.
Meanwhile, low cloud will become an issue in eastern coastal parts of England and Scotland. Western and north-western areas will likely be sunniest and driest towards the end of the week. Temperatures will generally be above the seasonal norm.
Mean temperatures are forecast to be around 2C above the 1991-2020 long-term average for most, though they may be closer to the long-term normal in the far north of Scotland and coastal areas of eastern and south-eastern England.
Most of the UK will experience drier-than-average weather. Still, rainfall totals have the potential to reach near-normal amounts in parts of southern England, particularly near the English Channel coast, and also in north-west Scotland, where the early part of the week may be rather wet.
Sunshine is forecast to be above average for most parts of the UK but potentially just near normal in northern Scotland and parts of eastern England, particularly near North Sea coasts.
It is unlikely that the predominantly warm, dry, sunny weather of Week 2 will stick around into Week 3. The high pressure area looks set to continue to move away to the west of Britain, leaving an east Atlantic ridge, which has the potential to develop into a Greenland-blocking high. However, there is only around a 30-40% chance of a full-on Greenland block developing. As a result, the weather is set to turn colder and more unsettled over the British Isles, with low pressure often to the north and east of Britain, resulting in frequent north-westerly winds. There is not a strong signal for low pressure to the south/southwest, so we will probably not see a return to very wet weather in the south, with the weather rather tending to be showery at times with occasional bands of more persistent rain crossing the country. Western parts of the country are likely to see the majority of the week's dry, sunny weather, lying closest to the east Atlantic ridge.
Temperatures are expected to be close to or just below the 1991-2020 long-term average due to winds tending to blow from the north-western quarter of the compass. It is likely to be wetter than usual in most eastern parts of the UK, with near average rainfall more likely in the west, but it does not look likely to be unusually wet. Sunshine amounts are more uncertain but are likely to be near or below normal in the east but above normal in western parts of the UK.
Confidence in the weather during this period is relatively low, with few solid signals for this period. Still, it looks most probable that pressure will be above average to the northwest of Britain and potentially below average to the south and east. This means we will probably see a fair amount of dry, sunny weather in north-western Britain but more unsettled conditions at times for the east and south. Temperatures are likely to be near to slightly above average, mainly due to the elevated global temperatures and sea surface temperatures around the UK, as the winds are likely to often blow from relatively cool directions with some northerlies and/or north-westerlies at times, but some warmer easterlies are also possible. It is thus expected to be drier and sunnier than average in the north and west of Scotland, but potentially rather wet for eastern and southern England, though with considerable uncertainty over this: rainfall could merely end up about average, as there is not a strong signal for very wet weather. Sunshine is also more likely to be near or below average in eastern and southern Britain.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
