Updated 17th November
Covering the period 24th November - 16th December
Generally dry and quite cold for most.
Temperatures will be slightly below the 1981-2010 average in most parts of the country with negative anomalies between 0 and 1C, but parts of southern England may have a negative anomaly between 1 and 2C.
Rainfall totals are likely to be below average almost everywhere, except in Northern Ireland and west Wales and south-western England where they may be close to average. Eastern Scotland is expected to be particularly dry with well under half of the normal rainfall.
Sunshine totals will be below average in eastern and southern parts of Britain, but generally above average in western Scotland and north-western England. Elsewhere they are expected to be close to the long-term average.
Monday Monday 24th November - Sunday 30th November
This period will be predominantly anticyclonic with low pressure held out to the west of the UK and high pressure over Scandinavia and central Europe dominating Britain’s weather, especially the eastern half of the country. Between the 24th and 27th, the Scandinavian blocking high will bring mostly south-easterly winds, and it will be wet at times in Northern Ireland and the far west of Wales and south-west England, but for the rest of the country it is likely to be dry. Sunshine totals will be limited in the eastern half of the country but western Scotland and north-western England may have reasonably sunny conditions. Temperatures will be slightly above the seasonal norm in Scotland and Northern Ireland but are likely to fall below normal in central and southern parts of England.
Between the 28th and 30th we are likely to see relatively unsettled conditions push in from the west as the Atlantic trough moves slowly eastwards, and the winds over the British Isles will generally be south to south-easterly. Eastern Scotland will probably miss the rain. Temperatures are likely to end up close to the seasonal average.
Rainfall totals during this period will be close to the long-term average in Northern Ireland but below average elsewhere, especially so in eastern Scotland. Temperatures will be about a degree above the 1981-2010 average in most parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and also north-eastern England, but about a degree below in southern England and south Wales. Sunshine totals are likely to be below normal in most parts of the UK but western Scotland and north-western England may have close to or above average sunshine.
Monday 1st December - Sunday 7th December
The low pressure is likely to fade as it heads eastwards and so although the week will most likely begin quite unsettled, colder drier conditions are likely to establish during the second half of the period with high pressure sinking southwards from Iceland/Scandinavia to cover most of the British Isles. Widespread snowfall is not looking very likely at this stage, but some frosts are likely, especially in northern parts of the country. Temperatures are expected to be below the seasonal norm in northern parts of Britain but close to average in the south. Rainfall totals will be below normal except possibly in the south and south-west of the UK where near-average totals are more likely. Sunshine totals will mostly be above normal in central and northern Britain but close to or slightly below average in the south.
Rest of the month
Monday 8th December - Tuesday 16th December
High pressure is again likely to be dominant to the north and east of the UK, especially over Scandinavia, and this will promote generally drier and colder than average conditions, with the greatest confidence on colder than average conditions being in southern Britain while Scotland and Northern Ireland are more likely to have near or slightly above average mean temperatures. Snowfalls cannot be ruled out at this stage, especially given the potential for some colder air to invade from the continent at times, but the emphasis is likely to be on cold dry weather rather than cold snowy weather. Atlantic weather systems are most likely to occasionally affect the west and south-west of the country. Sunshine totals are likely to show a west-east split with most western parts of the UK, especially western Scotland, generally sunnier than average, while it is likely to be dull in the east of Scotland and England.re systems are likely to be mostly held out to the west of the UK although one or two may track across to the south and bring some wetter conditions to the south.