Updated 5th October
Covering the period 12th October - 3rd November
Generally dry and anticyclonic, sunny for most, near-average temperatures
The mean temperature will be 0 to 1C above the 1981-2010 average in most parts of the country with the northern half of the country generally 0.5-1.0C above, but southern England in particular is more likely to come out very close to the average.
It will be drier than average everywhere although western Scotland is likely to fall only slightly short of the long-term average rainfall. It will be particularly dry in central and southern England and in Wales, with many places having less than half the normal rainfall.
Sunshine totals will mostly be above normal, but will be close to or slightly below normal in western Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Monday 12th October - Sunday 18th October
Early in this period, the British Isles will be sandwiched between high pressure centres over the Azores and southern Scandinavia. The Scandinavian high will decline, increasingly allowing weather systems to move from west to east to the north of Scotland during the second half of the week, but for most of England and Wales, the weather will remain more settled than usual for the time of year, with high pressure always close by to the west and south.
North-easterly winds coming in off the North Sea will bring mostly dry but cloudy conditions for most of eastern and central Britain on the 12th and 13th, but sheltered western parts of the country, particularly the west of Scotland, may end up with long sunny periods. The period 14th-16th will have one or two weak frontal systems moving southwards across the country, but with high pressure very close by, rainfall amounts will be very small, and mostly dry cloudy weather will be the result. However, there will be some sunny breaks in between the fronts, particularly for Wales and the western side of England.
The 17th and 18th are likely to have westerly winds and a north-south split, with most of Scotland (bar the southeast) prone to belts of cloud and mainly light rain spreading in from the west, while further south it will be generally dry, with some sunny spells, particularly for southern and central parts of England.
Mean temperatures will generally be within a degree of the 1981-2010 average, while it will be drier than average almost everywhere, with Wales and western England coming out particularly dry. Some locations may see out the week without any rain at all. Sunshine totals will be variable, but it will generally be sunnier than average in western Britain, particularly south-west Scotland. In eastern Britain sunshine totals will tend to be close to normal.
Monday 19th October - Sunday 25th October
The weather will again be more anticyclonic than usual, with high pressure generally centred to the south and south-west of the British Isles, and during the second half of the week the high is expected to transfer north-east, keeping the Atlantic weather systems away from all bar the far north-west of the UK. Between the 19th and 21st, a continued north-south split is likely with relatively cloudy and changeable conditions for most of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England, though with only small rainfall amounts, while it will be mostly dry and sunny in the south of the country. The dry quiet weather will extend northwards later in the period as the high pressure extends further north-east, although rain belts will continue to affect northern and western Scotland, mostly the north-western corner of the country. Sunshine amounts will generally be above normal during this anticyclonic spell.
Temperatures will be around 1C above the 1981-2010 average during this period, but no particularly warm spells are expected, with the second half of the week likely to see some cool nights as well as warm days. Rainfall totals may reach near-average amounts in north-west Scotland, but elsewhere it will be dry again, notably so in southern England where some places will see no rain at all. Sunshine totals will be near to slightly below normal in western Scotland and north-west England and Northern Ireland, but elsewhere they will generally be above normal.
Rest of the month
Monday 26th October - Tuesday 3rd November
High pressure will give way to weather systems coming in from the west during this period, but it will be quite a slow process and it will most likely take until early November for relatively changeable weather to take over across the whole country. Rainfall totals may be close to average in western Britain as a result of the change, but eastern districts are again likely to be drier than average. Sunshine amounts will generally be close to the long-term average during this period, though perhaps rather above in some eastern parts. Mean temperatures will again be around 1C above the 1981-2010 average for most, though very close to average in southern parts of Britain.