Updated 21st October
Covering the period 27th October - 18th November
Drier and cloudier than average, mild temperatures in the north, possibly wet towards mid-November
Temperatures, relative to the 1981-2010 reference period, will be 1 to 2C above average in most parts of the UK but eastern England will generally be less than 1C above.
Rainfall totals will be below average, though generally not exceptionally so due to an anticipated wet end to the period (though there is far more uncertainty over the wet end to the period than the dry weather during the first third of November). North-east Scotland is most likely to be significantly drier than average, while south-west England and south Wales are most likely to reach close to average rainfall.
Sunshine totals across the UK will generally be below average, particularly in southern and central parts of England.
Monday Monday 27th October - Sunday 2nd November
Although this period will start off with changeable westerlies, high pressure will build quickly from the south, and by the 29th most of the country will be dominated by high pressure. Although there is some uncertainty over how long the high pressure will last, it is probable that it will lie close to the British Isles through to the end of the period, and is likely to become centred in the North Sea during the second half of the period, bringing southerly winds.
Thus, significant rainfall is likely to be confined to the 27th and 28th, when it will mainly affect Scotland (especially the west of Scotland) and Northern Ireland, and from the 29th onwards, the high pressure will keep the weather dry and settled for all parts of the UK, with the possible exception of north-west Scotland, which will be more prone to weather systems moving around the north-western flank of the high pressure. With winds coming in from the south or south-west, temperatures will generally be warm for the time of year, except in central, southern and eastern England, where a greater continental influence may result in temperatures falling close to the seasonal norm.
Consequently, mean temperatures during this period will range from within a degree of the 1981-2010 normal in most eastern and central parts of England, to a few degrees above in the north and west of Scotland, with intervening regions of the UK mostly between 1 and 2C above, and rainfall totals will be well below average except in the north-west of Scotland where they may be close to normal. Most regions of the UK will have slightly below average sunshine but with considerable local variations depending on the precise location of banks of cloud rotating around the high pressure, so some individual locations may end up quite sunny. A significant shortage of sunshine is expected, however, in all locations in Northern Ireland and in western Scotland.
Monday 3rd November - Sunday 9th November
Highest pressure is likely to become centred over Scandinavia during this period which will bring easterly and south-easterly winds to the British Isles, but it is unlikely that we will pick up any particularly cold air from eastern Russia- it is more likely that we will end up with fairly warm air masses coming up from south-eastern Europe. Thus the first half of the period will be mostly dry and cloudy for eastern and central parts of the British Isles, with temperatures near average by day, but generally above average by night. Western parts of the country, however, are likely to be sunnier than average. Relatively unsettled weather is likely to try to push in from the North Atlantic during the second half of the period, resulting in some rain at times for western parts of Britain but some eastern parts of the country may see out the period without any rainfall. Temperatures are likely to fall close to or slightly below average during the second half of the period.
Temperatures will generally be close to the 1981-2010 average except in Scotland, where positive anomalies of 1 to 2C are likely, with the largest positive anomalies in north-eastern Scotland. Rainfall totals will again be generally below normal although some parts of western Britain may reach close to average rainfall due to wetter weather in the second half of the period. Sunshine totals will be below average in eastern Britain but generally close to average in the west.
Rest of the month
Monday 10th November - Tuesday 18th November
This period is most likely to be characterised by a cyclonic and fairly cool pattern with low pressure dominant over the UK and low pressure systems often taking a more southerly track than usual. It is unlikely to be especially cold, though, because the dominance of low pressure will prevent any air masses from a long way north becoming established over the British Isles. Rainfall totals during this period are likely to be above normal as a result, except in Scotland and Northern Ireland where they may merely be close to normal, and the north of Scotland is more likely to be drier than average. Large positive rainfall anomalies are most likely in the southern half of England and in south Wales. Temperatures are likely to be close to the seasonal norm, with slightly above-average temperatures more likely in southern and central England, and slightly below-average temperatures more likely in Scotland.