Updated 27th October
Covering the period 3rd November - 25th November
Changeable but quite sunny, milder than average in the south but cold at times in the north
Temperatures, relative to the 1981-2010 reference period, will show a north-south split, with most of Scotland and Northern Ireland slightly cooler than average, and southern England a degree or two above average, and intervening parts of the UK close to or slightly above average.
Rainfall totals will show a split from south-west to north-east, with Wales and southern and western England generally wetter than average, while eastern and northern Scotland will generally be drier than average. Elsewhere rainfall totals are expected to be close to the long-term normal with a wet second week of November offset by fairly dry weather elsewhere in the month.
Sunshine totals will be above average in most parts of the UK, especially in eastern Scotland and north-east England, but Wales and south-west England are likely to have close to average sunshine.
Monday Monday 3rd November - Sunday 9th November
A fairly chilly northerly or north-westerly incursion is likely between the 3rd and 5th November which will bring mostly sunny conditions with some scattered showers near windward (mainly north and west-facing) coasts, and temperatures near or slightly below the seasonal norm by day. Overnight temperatures will generally hold up above freezing but some ground frost is likely in inland parts of the UK, most likely overnight 4th/5th.
The weather is expected to turn unsettled with mild temperatures between the 6th and 9th as a strong Icelandic low will develop and a succession of frontal systems on its southern flank will bring frequent wet weather, especially to western parts of the country. Relatively high pressure will hang on to south-eastern Britain at times, where rainfall amounts are likely to be small, and sheltered parts of eastern Scotland and north-eastern England may also see only small amounts of rain, with significant drier brighter spells in between the rain belts.
Temperatures will be a degree or two above the 1981-2010 average in central and southern parts of England, but are expected to be close to average in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Rainfall totals will be below the long-term average in most eastern parts of the UK, but near or slightly above in most western areas (western Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, western England). Sunshine totals will be close to normal in western parts of the country but rather above normal in central and eastern parts of the country.
Monday 10th November - Sunday 16th November
Unsettled conditions are expected to continue with low pressure systems increasingly tracking further south than usual, and bringing some active rain belts. Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to turn colder than average, especially towards the end of the period, but with snowfalls most likely to be restricted to high ground. For England and Wales, temperatures will be above average early in the period, especially in the south, but will fall close to average late in the period. As a result, mean temperatures for the period will be slightly above average in southern Britain but slightly below average in the north.
Rainfall totals are expected to be above normal in most parts of the country during this period, particularly in the Midlands and southern England, but northern Scotland is likely to have close to or slightly below average rainfall. Sunshine totals are expected to be below average in most parts of England and Wales, but for Scotland and Northern Ireland, near or slightly above average sunshine is more likely.
Rest of the month
Monday 17th November - Tuesday 25th November
A cold quiet interlude is likely during the early to middle part of this period with a lull in the low pressure systems and a blast of chilly northerly winds, which may bring some wintry showers to low ground in the north, although confidence is low on how widespread any snowfalls will be. The second half of the period is more likely to see a return to changeable conditions with temperatures close to or above average, with above average temperatures most likely in the south of the country.
Rainfall totals are likely to be below average in most parts of the UK, though not exceptionally so, while sunshine totals are expected to be rather above average thanks to some cold bright weather during the early to middle part of the period.