Updated 12th October - Covering 19th October - 10th November 2026
Temperatures are forecast to come out up to 2C above average in northern and eastern Scotland, but around 1C above average over most of England and Wales, due to warmer than average temperatures setting in during November, following some near average to cool weather in the second half of October.
Rainfall totals will generally be below normal during the second half of October but are expected to be above normal during the first third of November. The wet start to November will probably be insufficient to offset the dry weather in mid to late October in most regions, but in south-western Britain in particular it may be substantial enough to raise the rainfall total for the period near or rather above normal.
Sunshine totals are expected to be near to slightly below normal for most regions, but above normal in eastern Scotland.
This week will be dominated by high pressure. At the beginning of the week, the high will be centred to the west of Britain, giving Britain northerly and winds, and consequently temperatures are expected to fall below average for the time of year. There will be a scattering of showers near North Sea coasts, but other regions will be dry and sunny, with some frost in prone frost hollows in the north.
Towards the middle of the week, the high looks set to settle over northern Britain. The northerly will be replaced by an easterly across England and Wales, which means that the showers near eastern coasts will be replaced by predominantly dry cloudy weather with stratocumulus in eastern England. There will probably be lengthy sunny spells over much of Wales and western England. Much of Scotland and Northern Ireland will probably also be sunny, but with some fog patches forming overnight which may be slow to clear during the day, and north-west Scotland will be more prone to cloudy south-westerlies. Temperatures will rise close to or slightly above the seasonal norm.
Towards the end of the week, the high looks most likely to settle on top of Britain, resulting in the easterly flow over England and Wales fizzling out. It will be dry, sunshine amounts will be variable. Temperatures are likely to be close to the seasonal norm over England and Wales, but above average in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Relative to the 1991-2020 long-term normal, temperatures are forecast to be 1 to 2C above average in northern and eastern Scotland and near the east coast of England, but about 1C below average in parts of Wales and south-west England. For most other regions, they are expected to be within a degree of the long-term average.
Rainfall totals are forecast to be well below normal, except locally near North Sea coasts where showers early in the week may raise totals close to or just below normal.
Sunshine is expected to be variable, but generally below normal in eastern England and above normal in Wales and western England.
This week looks set to start off with high pressure, but the Icelandic low is forecast to strengthen as the week progresses, with high pressure slipping away to the south-east. This will allow more unsettled weather to spread from the north-west, although it may take until near the end of the week for this to reach East Anglia and south-east England. Temperatures will tend to rise above the seasonal norm as the more changeable south-westerly type establishes, but there may be some cool nights and patchy fog early in the week, especially towards the south-east.
Mean temperatures are forecast to come out 1 to 2C above the long-term average over much of Scotland and Northern Ireland, but near normal in southern and eastern England. Much of the UK will again be drier than normal, but the onset of the south-westerly type may raise rainfall totals close to normal in some regions, most likely western Scotland. Chances of substantially below-average rainfall are highest in southern and eastern England. Sunshine is likely to be above normal in eastern Scotland and north-east England, but below normal in most western areas.
This period is expected to see further unsettled weather with south-westerly winds, and the Icelandic low potentially drifting south into the eastern North Atlantic, giving Britain more of a south to south-westerly type. Temperatures are set to be above normal during this period, probably by 2 to 3C, though with some uncertainty over the extent of the positive anomaly. Most of the UK is expected to be cloudier and wetter than average, particularly wet in the south-west, but both drier and sunnier than average weather is likely in parts of northern and eastern Scotland.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
