Updated 9th February
Covering the period 15th February - 8th March
Mixed, some fairly cold spells
Mean temperatures will generally be very close to the 1981-2010 average, but will tend to be 0 to 1C above in south-east England, and around 1C below for much of Scotland and Northern Ireland, and 0 to 1C below elsewhere.
It is likely to be wetter than average in most eastern and southern parts of the UK, with eastern Scotland probably most affected. Western parts of the UK will generally be drier than average due to a reduced westerly flow relative to normal.
Sunshine totals will be above normal in western Britain but close to or slightly below normal in central and eastern parts of the country.
Monday 15th February - Sunday 21st February
This week will start with a northerly outbreak, with some sleet and snow showers for eastern parts of the British Isles. Some areas of the UK will also be snow-covered after a cold snap late in the preceding week (which is expected to produce marginal frontal sleet/snow events), although the snow will tend to thaw in the sun during the day.
Milder weather and westerly winds will spread across the country on the 16th, causing a general thaw and risk of further flooding in some western parts of the UK. Snow is not expected to be widespread from this system, with the milder air quickly spreading in from the west. On the 17th and 18th, Britain will be affected by a west to north-westerly regime. Cloudy conditions with light rain and milder conditions will linger in the south on the 17th, and some heavier rain is likely in the north and east of Scotland for a time, but from the Midlands northwards it will be bright and showery. The showers will turn increasingly wintry in Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England, though with significant accumulations of snow mostly restricted to high ground.
A ridge of high pressure will kill off the showers by the 19th, with some overnight frost. The end of the period is expected to be unsettled with low pressure spreading from the west, bringing fronts and rain (with hill snow, plus perhaps temporary lowland snow in the north) with temperatures close to the seasonal average.
Temperatures will mostly be within a degree of the 1981-2010 long-term average, but generally about 1C above in south-east England, and about 1C below over much of Scotland, north-west England and Northern Ireland.
Rainfall totals will mostly be above normal, particularly in the south, and there is also a significant chance of it being wet in eastern Scotland, but close to average rainfall is expected in central and western Scotland and the eastern side of England.
Sunshine totals are expected to be near to slightly below normal in the south and in eastern Scotland, but it is likely to be sunnier than average in western Scotland and also northern and eastern England.
Monday 22nd February - Sunday 28th February
There is significant uncertainty over the weather during this period, but it is likely to be less unsettled than the previous week, with high pressure often dominant over Europe early in the period, and then rising in the North Atlantic towards the end of the period. However, I still expect mainly westerly winds and some frontal systems will move from west to east, these mainly affecting northern parts of the British Isles. The first half of this period will be milder than average, but towards the end of February there is an increasing likelihood of colder northerly and north-westerly incursions which will bring sleet, snow and hail showers mainly to the north.
Temperatures will generally be very close to the 1981-2010 average but generally slightly milder than average in the south. Rainfall totals will generally be close to or slightly below normal, with the west most likely to be below normal. Sunshine totals will be close to normal in most parts of the country, but above normal in the north and west of Scotland.
Rest of the month
Monday 29th February - Tuesday 8th March
Cold and relatively dry and settled conditions are likely early in the period, with above-average pressure in the North Atlantic and frequent northerly and north-westerly winds, but with potential for some marginal sleet/snow events as North Atlantic depressions weather systems periodically move across the country. It is unclear how cold it will get at this range. Less cold and more unsettled conditions are likely later in the period with more of a dominant westerly airflow. However, for the period as a whole temperatures will mostly be a degree or two down on the 1981-2010 average. Rainfall totals are expected to be below normal in the west, but near or above normal in the east. Sunshine is likely to be plentiful early in the period but then becoming less abundant, with most western parts of the UK in particular having above-average totals overall.