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Monthly weather forecast for the UK

Updated 18th May

Covering the period 25th May - 16th June

Dry, cool and cloudy in the east, but sunny in the west with warm days and cool nights

Temperature anomalies during this period will show a west-east split, with most of Wales, Northern Ireland and the west of England and Scotland coming out above average, though generally by less than 1C. Eastern parts will generally be cooler than average, again typically by between 0 and 1C, but parts of eastern England, notably Linconlshire and East Anglia, may be 1 to 2C cooler than average. The reason for this will be that northerly winds will blow more frequently than usual.

Rainfall totals will generally be below average, and markedly so in most southern and western parts of the country with some places seeing less than half the normal amount of rainfall. The north-east of Scotland will be the main exception, with near or slightly above rainfall expected.

Sunshine anomalies, like the temperature anomalies, will show a west-east split. It will generally be sunnier than average in western and southern parts of England (except the south-east), and in Wales, Northern Ireland and south-west Scotland, but the north and east of Scotland and the eastern third of England will generally be slightly cloudier than average.

Monthly weather forecast

Weekly Breakdown
Monday 25th May - Sunday 31st May
Frequent low pressure over Scandinavia and high pressure over the mid-Atlantic will keep Britain’s weather rather cool and changeable during this period, with north-westerly winds generally dominant. However, with the high pressure quite close by to the west, rainfall totals will generally be small, particularly in the south-west of the country. The 25th is likely to be a dry day with some sunny spells in southern parts of the country, but cloudier with some intermittent light rain in Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England, and then this cloudier weather will transfer southwards on the 26th, followed by fairly bright, cool conditions with sunny intervals and scattered light showers. A repeat is likely on the 28th-30th with light patchy rain spreading south, followed by a return to cool conditions with a fair amount of cloud in the east, some sunny intervals and scattered light showers. High pressure is expected to move closer on the 30th/31st promising more in the way of sunshine, particularly in the west.

Temperatures will be below the seasonal norm everywhere thanks to the emphasis on north-westerly winds. The deviation will be less than 1C in south-western Britain and in Northern Ireland, but it will be in the region of 2 to 3C in many eastern parts of the country.

Rainfall totals are expected to be close to normal in north-east Scotland, but elsewhere they will be below normal, particularly so in south Wales and south-west England where some locations may see out the week without recording any measurable rain. Sunshine totals will fall a little short of the long-term average in eastern and central England and in the north and east of Scotland, but most of Wales, Northern Ireland, western England and south-west Scotland will record above-average sunshine.

Monday 1st June - Sunday 7th June
This week is the most likely to feature significant periods of dry sunny weather, especially in western and southern parts of the country, with the persistent Azores/mid-Atlantic high ridging eastwards towards the British Isles more frequently and low pressure systems kept well away to the north and east. With highest pressure generally centred to the west of the British Isles, it will never be remarkably warm, but a combination of warm days and cool nights is expected, particularly in central and western parts of the British Isles. Eastern counties of Scotland and England (especially Lincolnshire and East Anglia) will be more prone to cooler cloudier conditions by day, with northerly winds bringing low cloud in from the North Sea.

Temperatures during this period will be 0 to 1C below the long-term average in most eastern parts of England but will be between 1 and 2C above in most western areas of England, together with most of Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland. The positive temperature anomaly in the warmer areas will stem primarily from high daytime maxima. It will be dry everywhere, with some parts of the country seeing no measurable rain, particularly in the south. Sunshine totals will be above normal except in Lincolnshire, East Anglia and parts of south-east England, where near or slightly below average totals are expected.

Latest Weather Updates

Rest of the month
Monday 8th June - Tuesday 16th June
With pressure falling to the north and north-east of the British Isles, the weather is likely to turn cooler and more changeable during this period, with chilly north-westerly winds also causing temperatures to fall below the seasonal norm, particularly in eastern Britain. However, it is not expected to turn exceptionally wet, with rainfall totals merely rising to near or slightly above average values during this period. Temperatures will generally be a degree or two down on the seasonal average, but with southern and western England and most of Wales more likely to have a close to average mean temperature. Sunshine totals are likely to be slightly below normal in most of Scotland and eastern England, but near to slightly above elsewhere.

Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast, written by Ian Simpson is updated once a week - every Monday. As with any longer term forecast, it's not possible to go into much detail and accuracy can tend to drop off toward the end of the period but it can still act as a very good guide to the weather during the upcoming month.

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