Updated 26th January
Covering the period 2nd February - 24th February
A wintry spell is expected in early February
Relative to the 1981-2010 reference period, temperatures will be up to 1C below average for much of the country, but they will be slightly above average in Northern Ireland and close to average for most other western parts of Britain.
Rainfall totals will mostly be below normal, and significantly so in central and southern parts of England, but in northern Scotland they are expected to be close to normal.
Monday 2nd February - Sunday 8th February
Pressure will be above average to the west and north-west of the British Isles, especially early on in the forecast period, but during the second half of the week pressure will generally fall to the north-west of the British Isles, while remaining anomalously high in the mid-Atlantic.
Therefore the week is expected to begin cold with winds blowing mostly from a northerly or north-easterly direction, bringing frequent wintry showers (generally as a wintry mix near coasts and in the south, but snow elsewhere). These will be most frequent in northern and eastern parts of the British Isles but Wales and the West Country are also likely to be affected. Frontal systems will also bring occasional longer outbreaks of precipitation, mostly as snow on high ground and in the north and east.
During the second half of the week temperatures will rise closer to the seasonal average with milder air slowly pushing in from the north-west, although some frontal snow is likely during the transition, mainly in eastern parts of the country. In Northern Ireland and in western and northern Scotland temperatures are likely to rise above average by the end of the week.
Overall, temperatures will range from about 1C below the 1981-2010 average in Northern Ireland and in the north and west of Scotland, to about 3C below in eastern England, with most intervening regions about 2C below. Rainfall totals will mostly be below average, but near or slightly above average totals are expected in eastern England, and in Northern Ireland, Wales and south-west England. Sunshine totals will generally be slightly above the seasonal norm, but a small shortage of sunshine is expected in northern Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and parts of south-west England.
Monday 9th February - Sunday 15th February
An increased influence from the Azores High is expected to lead to relatively dry quiet weather for much of this week, especially for southern parts of the UK, but the north will be more prone to rain-bearing frontal systems moving around the northern and eastern flank of the high, especially in the northern half of Scotland. There will be some chilly north-westerly incursions in the wake of the frontal systems, which will bring sleet and snow showers to much of Scotland, and will be followed by some frosts to central and southern parts of England and inland parts of Wales as the high pressure ridges over. However, mild air will periodically head around the northern flank of the high.
Consequently, mean temperatures will be slightly above the 1981-2010 average across much of the country, by about 1C generally, but south-west England and south Wales may be slightly cooler than average. Rainfall totals will generally be below normal except in north-east Scotland, where near-average totals are more likely. Sunshine totals will be below normal in Northern Ireland and in western and northern Scotland, but elsewhere they will generally be above normal.
Rest of the month
Monday 9th February - Tuesday 24th February
Colder weather is likely to return during this period with the high pressure in the mid-Atlantic periodically ridging up towards Iceland and Greenland. Although there will be some milder west to north-westerlies, at least one or two northerly outbreaks are likely, which will bring sleet and snow showers most especially to northern and eastern parts of the British Isles. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal average for most of England and Wales and Northern Ireland but will fall below normal in Scotland and north-east England. It will generally be drier than average, particularly in the south and west of the country. Sunshine totals will mostly be above the seasonal norm.