Updated 9th November - Covering 16th November - 8th December 2026
Mean temperatures are forecast to be around 2C above the 1991-2020 long-term normal in south-east England and East Anglia, but very close to normal in the northern half of Scotland. Positive anomalies of around 1C are expected in Northern Ireland and southern Scotland, while other regions will probably be 1 to 2C warmer than average.
It looks set to be wetter than normal for most, probably considerably so for southern England and south Wales, with the largest positive anomalies probably in south-west England. Parts of northern Scotland may end up with near to slightly below average precipitation.
Sunshine totals are expected to be below normal over the majority of England and Wales, but close to or slightly above normal in north-east England and over much of Scotland and Northern Ireland, and potentially well above normal in parts of northern Scotland.
The start of this week looks set to see a swift transition from cold, dry, frosty weather to mild and wet weather, dominated by low pressure. Winds will be mainly southerly early in the week, but a cyclonic/westerly type looks set to develop mid to late week with depressions often tracking across the British Isles from west to east. The north of Scotland may sometimes be affected by easterly winds on the northern flank of the depressions. There is also potential for secondary depressions to bring strong winds at times, with potential for gales.
Bands of rain will spread from south-west to north-east, interspersed with spells of brighter weather with showers, where the majority of the showers will be in the west and south. Temperatures will tend to be near or rather above the seasonal norm for most of the time, but it is expected that it will occasionally be very mild for the time of year when depressions bring pulses of warm tropical maritime air, particularly in the south and east of England.
Relative to the 1991-2020 long-term normal, temperatures are expected to be up to 2C above normal in England and Wales, with the highest anomalies probably in eastern England, but in western Scotland and Northern Ireland they look set to be very close to normal.
It is forecast to be wetter than normal in most regions, especially the south and south-west of England, and south and west Wales. Some sheltered parts of north-east Scotland may end up with near or slightly below average rainfall.
Sunshine is expected to be above normal in most parts of Scotland, especially the north and east, and also in north-east England, but below normal in most parts of Wales and southern and western England.
This week is forecast to continue generally mild and wet, especially in the south, with winds mostly blowing from between west and south, and low pressure systems often taking a more southerly track than average, heading over central or northern parts of Britain. There will be a continuation of the pattern of rain belts pushing from south-west to north-east, interspersed by brighter, showery weather. During the latter part of the week, there is an increasing chance of high pressure building to the north-west of Britain, around Greenland and Iceland, increasing the chances of colder drier weather pushing into northern parts of Britain, particularly Scotland, via northerly winds, and potential for wintry showers especially for northern Scotland.
Mean temperatures are forecast to be close to normal in northern Scotland, but about 2C above in eastern and southern England. It is again expected to be wetter than normal for much of the country, particularly the south, but parts of northern Scotland may come out with near to slightly below average precipitation. Sunshine will probably be below normal in most regions, but above normal in north-west Scotland.
It looks probable that pressure will be high over Iceland and Greenland for much of this week, but with the jet stream continuing to send low pressure systems eastwards across the British Isles. Overall, there will probably be alternating mild and cold spells. Mild and wet weather is likely to persist in the south for much or all of the week. But there is potential for some short-lived northerlies which are likely to sustain for longest in Scotland, and these could bring some wintry weather to Scotland, with a smaller chance of sleet or snow penetrating briefly into Northern Ireland, the Midlands and northern England. Overall, mean temperatures are forecast to be around 2C above the long-term normal in south-east England, but very close to normal over much of Scotland.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
