Updated 6th October - Covering 13th Oct - 4th Nov 2025
Mean temperatures are forecast to be within a degree of the 1991-2020 long-term normal in most parts of the country.
It is forecast to start off drier than normal and turn wetter, so there is some uncertainty over the overall rainfall anomalies, as it depends on the extent of the wetter weather towards early November. However, it looks probable that western and northern Scotland will be drier than normal overall, while the south and east of England may end up a bit wetter than average despite a dry start to the period.
Sunshine totals during this period will probably be above average in most parts of Scotland, especially the west, and in north-west England, but below average in the south of England.
This week will be dominated by high pressure, which will mainly be situated on top of the British Isles, but at times it may drift to the north and/or west, allowing north-easterly winds into eastern and southern Britain. Sunshine amounts are forecast to be variable, with some areas of cloud heading in from the surrounding seas at times, but also some sunny days. Temperatures are expected to be close to the long-term normal for much of the week, with mild nights where cloud persists, but some cold nights with patchy fog when skies clear.
There is potential for a strengthening easterly flow towards the end of the week, which may bring in some colder air, as another ex-hurricane will be heading across the North Atlantic and it is expected to approach western Europe towards the end of this week. It currently looks most likely to head into Spain and Portugal, to the south of the high pressure over the British Isles. This may also bring a scattering of showers into eastern counties, due to relatively cold air passing over the comparatively warm North Sea and generating instability.
Mean temperatures are forecast to be very close to the 1991-2020 long-term average overall, though probably about 1C above normal in parts of Scotland, especially the north and east, and about 1C below in the south of England.
It is forecast to be drier than normal in all regions, and some places may well see out the week without any rain at all. There may be a couple of rain belts in north-western Britain, particularly early in the week, and some showers in the east late on, but these are forecast to be insufficient to raise rainfall totals close to average.
Sunshine totals are likely to be above normal in most western counties, particularly the west of Scotland, but near normal in the east, possibly below normal in some eastern areas, especially East Anglia.
This week is forecast to see the weather turn more unsettled. High pressure will most likely drift to the north of Britain, allowing in easterly winds early in the week and some showers for eastern counties, and the possibility of some longer spells of rain coming into the south at times, but the early part of the week will probably be dry and sunny in north-western Britain. Temperatures early in the week may well fall below the seasonal average, especially in the south. Later in the week we can expect frontal systems to push rain in from the south-west, bringing wetter and warmer conditions generally, although these may struggle to make it into northern and eastern Britain until towards the end of the week.
Temperatures are likely to be about a degree down on the long-term average in most regions, but near or slightly above normal near North Sea coasts, where the winds will often be coming in off the comparatively warm North Sea. Rainfall is most likely to be near normal in the south and east of Britain, and below normal in western Scotland and north-west England. Sunshine totals are likely to be well above normal in western Scotland and north-west England, but below normal in the south of England.
This period is expected to turn unsettled and dominated by low pressure, probably with mainly westerly winds, and temperatures likely near average in the north and above average in the south-east. Depressions are likely to track further south than average, which means that it may be wettest relative to normal in the south, with nearer average rainfall for north-western Britain. Because temperatures are unlikely to vary far from average, there will probably not be widespread snowfall except perhaps over the Scottish Highlands. There is uncertainty over how wet it will be, but a likelihood of it being generally unsettled. Sunshine totals often end up above normal in eastern Scotland and north-east England in this type of setup, but below normal in south-western Britain.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
