Issued 2024-05-02 07:37:13
Valid: 02/05/2024 0800 - 03/05/2024 0600
Elongated upper low lies WNW to ESE from west of Bay of Biscay to western Mediterranean on Thursday, with surface low stretching from Germany to England to the north.
Across the UK, in wake of overnight storms clearing NW, atmosphere will likely be overturned somewhat across S England, so storms appear unlikely to develop here for much of the day. However, to the north of warm front across S England and generally north of the M4 / London from E Anglia, through the Midlands and over to Wales & NW England, a breeze convergence zone is forecast to develop and shift north – which is likely to support the development of heavy showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with help of surface heating. Deep layer shear will be rather weak, but storms may train along convergence zone and organise over some spots to bring localised flash-flooding, while hail and gusty winds are also possible. However, there is quite a bit of disagreement between models on where and if any storms break out in these areas, so have refrained from issuing higher than 20% probabilities. But have delineated a broad area from NW England / Wales east across the Midlands to E England for risk of thunderstorms.
During the evening and overnight, further showers and perhaps scattered elevated thunderstorms look to spread east across the North Sea from the Low Countries across eastern and perhaps NE England, mainly E Anglia northwards, as a shortwave trough tracks WNW out of the near continent and creates lift of continuing warm / moist conveyor advecting west.
Issued by: Nick Finnis
Issued by the Netweather forecast team whenever there is a risk of storms or severe convective weather, these discussion based and in depth forecasts will highlight the areas at risk and give an in depth description of the risk and the factors surrounding it.
