Week Ahead: An autumnal mix - some wind and rain but also frost, fog and sunshine
In recent weeks, the week ahead forecast has been quite straight forward in the main, in that it could be covered with a catch-all of frequent rain or showers, and windy at times. This week will see some of that, but with high pressure having an influence, there'll be more variation in the forecast. And also some real uncertainty over the details - especially later in the week.
Today (Sunday) sees the high pressure trying to ridge in from the west, but we do still have low pressure not too far away to both our east and south. That means a few more showers to come - these particularly in eastern coastal regions, but a few also clipping the coast of western Wales and southwest England. Elsewhere, there's a fair bit of cloud drifting around, but even so, there should be some sunny spells to be had. The high itself will nose into western Scotland first, so it's here where the most prolonged sunny periods are likely.
Temperatures today will reach the low-teens in southern England, but elsewhere 8-12c will be about your lot. Overnight though, with clear skies across Scotland and a good part of the island of Ireland, it'll cool down quickly with lows around or below zero in many spots, allow for a widespread ground frost. The cloud further south will keep it a little milder, though.
Monday will see high pressure in charge for virtually the whole country, bringing sunny spells after a crisp start in the north. Low pressure will still be close to the southeast of England though, with some showers, maybe even an extended spell of rain possible during the morning in the far southeast corner. That shower risk may extend further north to other eastern parts of England for a time, but any that do develop will be isolated. The wetter weather should then ease through the day with the sun breaking through into the afternoon.
The opposite will happen across the northwest of Scotland into the afternoon though, with high cloud gradually thickening, as the high pressure sinks and starts to allow an Atlantic system to approach. Overnight, outbreaks of rain will move into northern Scotland, along with increasing winds. With more cloud spilling south ahead of it, temperatures will be milder than Sunday night across the north of the country. But further south it'll be a chilly one with lows well into single figures bringing some patchy ground frost.
Tuesday then brings a north-south split. It'll be windy with more cloud in the north, along with some patchy rain affecting the far north and northwest at times. Further south, after a chilly start, there'll be plenty of sunshine, with just a light southwest breeze.
Overnight, the rain in the northwest looks set to gather itself and become more persistent and heavy, with winds strengthening at the same time. It'll be another chilly night with some fog and frost further south though.
From midweek onwards, the forecast becomes ever more tricky. The theme, to start at least, will be a continuation of the north-south split - with more rain and still gusty winds affecting the north and especially northwest of the UK along with Ireland into Wednesday. Elsewhere, more dry, bright or sunny weather is likely. But there is the possibility of a front nudging up from the south, bringing more cloud and some showery rain with it. The question mark is how far north it'll get, with some models taking it right through into central regions; others only have it scraping the south coast.
By Thursday, the rain and showers in the northwest are likely to make a move further southeast. Ahead of it, there will also still be the threat of some showers in the southeast of England, but with sunny spells in between. Eventually, the two more showery zones are likely to meet, albeit with just a scattering of showers expected by this point.
Friday keeps the sun and showers idea going, with the showers mostly in the north and west of the country again, as the remainder stays drier and brighter. But then into next weekend, there is the threat of low pressure moving into the British Isles, which could bring a spell of wet and potentially very windy weather. But, and it's a big but at this point, confidence is very low.
(Photo today - Avon Gorge and Clifton suspension Bridge)