UK Weather: A taste of summer coming up. Hotting up for the Bank Holiday weekend.
Temperatures at Heathrow on Tuesday reached 22.8C, by the weekend there are signs that it could be up into the high 20s. The warmer theme is gaining strengthen but the confidence around the Bank holiday forecast charts still isn’t where we’d like it to be.
The late August Bank holiday weekend saw 31.5C at Heathrow back in 2001, this was on the Saturday, falling on the 25th. More recently in 2017, the warmest late August Bank Holiday Monday was on the 28th (this years is the 26th) with 28.2C in Norfolk.
It does look warmer, Friday and Saturday as southerly winds take hold, we’ll see temperatures rising into the mid maybe high 20sC. This heat could continue for Sunday and Monday but if a few things shift then it won’t be as warm and there could be more cloud and some showers. If you look at a weather app, it might just show you fine weather and high temperatures. This is just one output and apparently ‘no doubt’. As a forecast it could be spot on and parts of the UK will have a hot and sunny Bank holiday weekend but by forecasters introducing and highlighting other solutions, it’s not just covering all bases, but explaining the whole situation.
For the middle of the week, there is a large low pressure heading our way from the NW. High pressure is lurking further south. By the weekend the UK looks to be in a col, the space between two low pressures (one deep one away to the NW) and two high pressures. Not a lot happens in a col itself, this one still looks warm, but it is easy for one of the pressure centres to exert influence. If the low pressure does this there will be showers from the west. If the high takes hold, the weather will carry on being settled, even sunny.
Air Quality issues at the weekend as high pressure takes hold. Weed Pollen season brings moderate levels
You can already see the rain from the Atlantic low on the Netweather Radar, out west. This rain will move over Northern Ireland by lunchtime, also over the west coast of Scotland. The rain band does make quite slow progress today reaching the Isle of Man and more of Scotland by teatime, just into Cumbria too. The southerly winds pickup with the rain and there will be gales and gusts of 50-60mph for the Western Isles at lunchtime. Across most of England and Wales and eastern Scotland the weather will be fine and bright with sunshine and more of a breeze later in the day.
Overnight the frontal rain moves over NW England and NW Wales, with clear spells appearing to the north. As frontal bands and low pressure move past NW Scotland, there will be SW winds, light for southern England but fresh to strong in the north. SE England will have a lovely day with sunshine and temperatures into the mid 20sC. There will be more cloud elsewhere with patchy rain for areas exposed to the flow from the west. Scotland will be in cooler air on Thursday, but a warm front will bring rain to Northern Ireland and then temperatures will lift later in the afternoon inside the warm sector. Thursday night will be mild but still blustery in the north.
By Friday high pressure is building over the UK. Frontal bands still linger over the far NW of the UK, bringing rain to northern Scotland but for most of the UK there will be fine, weather with sunny spells and warmth. Temperatures of 20 to 27C although there could be fog for southern England to start the day.
This feed of warm air from the south continues on Saturday with a bright or sunny, warm day for most of the UK. There is a weather front lurking to the NW which could still bring more cloud, patchy rain and blustery winds to the west coast of Scotland and western counties of Northern Ireland. It is likely that the fine, dry and very warm weather will continue through the long weekend but do keep an eye on the forecast over the next few days. (no Bank Holiday in Scotland this time).