Slow Moving Weather To Stay In An Unsettled Mood - No Imminent Signs Of Another Heatwave

There have been various blogs over the past few days, comparing the current situation with past July's about this time, a type of science that I like because it's inquisitive. Further investigation will reveal a singularity that occurs from around 22nd July to about 12th August, which often results in slow-moving weather systems in the vicinity of the British Isles.

One such almost stationary trough continues to affect Dumfries, parts of Antrim, North West England, North East Wales, the North and East Midlands and East Anglia, where there'll be further bursts of rain for much of the day. These'll be heavy and thundery in places at first, with a risk of some flooding, but there'll also be drier brighter intervals.

Either side of the front it's drier and brighter and will remain so, with the best of the sunshine over South Wales and southern England. Although North East England and parts of Scotland will see a few sharp showers developing later. Here we also have patchy mist and fog in somewhat humid conditions, but this'll clear through the morning.

In the brighter, sunnier areas temperatures will reach 21 to 24C away from exposed coasts, but in the cloud and rain, 17 to 19C is about the best you can expect. A light or moderate breeze will be from the West or North-West across much of Northern Ireland and southern England, but an Easterly quarter elsewhere.

The weather should begin to brighten into the evening over the North and East Midlands and much of East Anglia, as the showers here start to fade. Across parts of northern England, Dumfries, Strathclyde and perhaps Antrim at first, there'll be further bursts of rain that'll tend to become lighter and patchy overnight. Central and northern areas of Scotland also see a few showers, but here skies will be more broken. Over Wales and remaining parts of England, it continues mostly dry and fine, with clear spells developing after dark.

Winds generally will be light, encouraging a few short-lived mist or fog patches to form towards dawn in sheltered glens and some rural areas where skies stay clearest, the longest. It'll be a mild night though, with temperatures generally not falling below 12 to 16C.

Monday is finer over Northern Ireland, apart from the odd shower in the North, with northern England also turning finer from the South. Meanwhile, that front continues to bring cloud and patchy rain to the far north of England and southern Scotland, with Highland, Moray and Aberdeenshire seeing an extended mix of sunny intervals and scattered showers. Most of England and Wales, however, start the new working week fine and dry with sunny spells. The exception being South Wales, the West Country and the South West where increasing cloud brings showers to Cornwall and Devon later.

Winds generally remain light, but with a freshening East or South Easterly breeze developing across the South West later. Top temperatures 21 to 25C in the sunshine, but only 16 to 18C where it remains cloudy.

Much of Wales and England as far north as the Midlands may turn wet on Monday evening or after dark, as a small Atlantic depression moves in from the South West. The rain will be heavy in places perhaps with thunder in an East or South Easterly wind that'll be gusty and strong along the South coast. Much of northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland, however, are dry with clear spells, apart from a scattering of showers in the North. Lighter winds here may allow a few mist or fog patches to form again in rural areas briefly around dawn when temperatures will be between 11 and 14C. Over Wales, the Midlands and southern England though, temperatures shouldn't fall below 14 to 17C.

The rest of the week seems set to remain in an unsettled mood with further showers at times, locally heavy and thundery. Temperatures should be close to normal perhaps slightly above in the South, so for the moment, summer seems to be on hold with no imminent sign of another heatwave.