The stories in some parts of the media this morning were once again very dramatic with headlines of a month long Siberian freeze among them, how much truth is there in this though?
To start, we're certainly into a colder spell currently, with widespread frosts and wintry showers during the next 48 hours, and then as rain tries to push in from the west during the second part of the weekend there is the risk of snowfall as it bumps into the colder air.
Looking right back to November, the Netweather winter forecast suggested that a pattern change was likely to occur during January with February expected to be the coldest month.
As well as this, although the forecasting models have been swinging wildly of late (often indicative of a pattern change), there are increasing trends that high pressure to the northeast of the UK will become a dominant player in the coming days and weeks meaning that cold from the east is likely to be pulled across Europe.
But, bearing in mind all of the forecasting model uncertainty this is no guarantee of a long lasting, ongoing and prolonged freeze. The UK being an island in the Atlantic will always have the threat of milder air encroaching toward it from the west, even during a period where very cold air is affecting a good deal of Europe.
So the message is that there is potential for some very cold weather at times in the coming weeks, along with some significant falls of snow, particularly in any situations where milder air tries to push in from the west and meets the colder air. But at this point it is just potential and there is a good deal of uncertainty, so please stay tuned for the latest updates as we move through the end of January and into the final month of winter.
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