Netweather
GeoLocate
GeoLocate
Holidays
Local
Radar
Pollen
Still Looking unsettled perhaps after a hot start
Blog by Julian R
19th June 2019 20:31

Still Looking unsettled perhaps after a hot start

This is the second blog, and not that much change overall in the forecast.

GFS Ensembles [12Hz - Wednesday 19 June]

Still looking mostly dry until the 23rd June, However many ensembles going for moderate rainfall before and during the festival period.

Turning milder into next week, with some ensembles going for some very high 850HPa above 20c, although the operational runs moving away from this.

Pressure around 1020mb at the start of the festival and dropping slighly into next weekend, but no deep areas of Low Pressure.



Synoptic Summary / Overview

Remove Ads?

There seems to be good agreement now on there being High Pressure centred over Northern parts of the UK for next Wednesday, with lesser agreement on how much if there is low pressure over southern areas or whether tis stays away to the South / West. There is also a plume likely over NW Mainland Europe (20c+ 850HPa), which may or may not edge Westwards over the UK.

Thereafter it seems likely that there will be weak areas of low pressure by Friday, with further uncertainty over any “proper” low pressure for the weekend. So some rainfall likely over most days of the festival, with no complete washout.

GFS Operational Run [12Hz - Wednesday 19 June] – but also mentioning other runs / forecasts

Synoptic Summary / Overview

There seems to be good agreement now on there being High Pressure centred over Northern parts of the UK for next Wednesday, with lesser agreement on how much if there is low pressure over southern areas or whether tis stays away to the South / West. There is also a plume likely over NW Mainland Europe (20c+ 850HPa), which may or may not edge Westwards over the UK.

Thereafter it seems likely that there will be weak areas of low pressure by Friday, with further uncertainty over any “proper” low pressure for the weekend. So some rainfall likely over most days of the festival, with no complete washout.

GFS Operational Run [12Hz - Wednesday 19 June] – but also mentioning other runs / forecasts

Wednesday 26 June – Dry to start but showers developing later in the day from the South, these might be heavy. Winds Easterly and Temperatures 22-23c (if the plume edges further West, 25-26c would be more likely)

Thursday 27 June – With weak low pressure likely for Southern areas, showers may develop widely, temperatures likely to be cooler than Wednesday at around 20-21c

Friday 28 June – An area of Low Pressure is set to be located to the West of the UK, with Westerly winds over Southern UK. Further showers are possible but currently looking lighter than Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures around 20-21c

Weekend – the 12Hz keeps the Low Pressure to the West of the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure developing, keeping things mostly dry with temperatures of around 20c, However other runs notably the 06Hz run has Low Pressure over the UK and much more unsettled and wetter.

ECM Operational Run [12Hz - Wednesday 19 June]

High Pressure to the North West of the UK on the Wednesday, with weaker High Pressure over Southern areas, the plume staying more the east of the UK.

Slowly turning more unsettled with Low Pressure over the Uk on the Friday, this weakening over the weekend.

NOAA [Synoptic pattern for 25 June - 29 June)

Higher pressure around the UK, with low pressure to the South West

Summary

Still Looking rather mixed, no washout, with rain (and mud) is likely at times

The weekend outlook still uncertain.

Connect with us.
facebook icon twitter icon
...Or you can join the friendly and lively