We're heading into a more settled, less windy spell of weather for mid February and nothing too cold either. Respite after Storm Erik's blustery rain.
The UK weather often settles down around this time in February, researched as singularities and this year appears to be no exception. So although it's unsettled today, a strong rise in pressure into the new working week will see the weather improving. While still breezier and unsettled in the North and West for a while, much of England and Wales become dry next week with lighter breezes from the South or South West. This'll make it relatively mild and pleasant by day in the sunny spells that will be on offer, but watch out for patchy fog and a touch of frost at night in the East, chiefly in rural areas.
For the moment though, we have frontal systems giving outbreaks of rain mostly south of a line from Liverpool to the Humber. There's also been some snow over the North Wales mountains, with a few heavy bursts of rain expected this morning. This'll be followed, eventually, by sunny intervals from the West, with just a few showers, these mainly in the West, but it may be towards dusk before skies clear over East Anglia and the South East. Across the remainder of northern England and central and southern Scotland, apart from the odd shower, it'll be mainly dry, with the best of the sunshine towards Northumberland and County Durham. Winds light at first become North West or Westerly, before falling light again towards dusk.
The other place to see some rain today will be Northern Ireland where after a bright start especially to the South of Belfast, outbreaks of rain will arrive from the North West. Winds here, mostly moderate or fresh Westerly, before turning into the South West later. The North of Scotland will also some rain, this perhaps spreading to parts of central Scotland by late afternoon. In the far North, hill snow is possible later, as a mostly moderate or fresh breeze turns into the North West or North. It'll feel rather cold everywhere out in the wind, with top temperatures of 5 to 7C in the North and 8 locally 9C in the South. Generally down on yesterdays values.
Parts of North West England, Wales, much of the Midlands and the West Country, after a dry start to the evening, will see some showery bursts of rain overnight. The East and South East should stay dry with clear intervals at first, although there could be a few showers 'dotted' about here later in the night. Northern Ireland sees showers fading after dark, to leave clear spells overnight. Central and southern Scotland may also see cloud bringing a few showers after dark which may be wintry on hills, before clearer weather arrives from the North. There'll be a slight frost over much of Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of northern England with lowest temperatures -2 to +1C. Further South, it will be somewhat milder, with 2 to 6C more likely here.
Monday begins cloudy across North East England with a few light showers, which will also affect eastern coastal counties and Norfolk through the day. Showery rain over central southern England at first will clear and as pressure rises the weather will improve, with most parts eventually seeing some sunshine. It'll also become mainly dry, although Northern Ireland will tend to cloud over from the West during the afternoon, perhaps bringing patchy rain to Tyrone and Fermanagh by dusk. A mostly light or moderate North West wind will become South Westerly and will feel make it feel quite chilly. Despite this, temperatures should reach 5 to 7C in the North and 8 to 10C further South.
After dark much of England, Wales and South East Scotland stay dry with clear spells, as pressure continues to rise. It could turn cold enough in some central and eastern areas for a slight frost and a few mist or fog patches later, as temperatures fall close to freezing in some rural areas. In the far West, over Northern Ireland and the North and West of Scotland however, a South to South Westerly breeze will bring more in the way of cloud making it milder here, with some patchy mostly light rain or drizzle in the West.
