Storm Erik slowly moves away, but remaining windy with showers in the west. Rain in the south Sunday, turning colder from the north. High pressure building next week, so settling down.
Storm Erik arrived to the northwest on Friday, bringing damaging winds and delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport – especially across the north and west, where we saw the strongest wind gusts, with a gust of 84mph at Capel Curig in North Wales and 76mph recorded in Northern Ireland. The strong winds were enough to bring down trees in places in the west. Also a lot of rain has fallen over the last 24 hours in association with Storm Erik, over 50mm (2 inches) in places, so river levels are running high in places, with a number of flood warning and watches in place.
The very strong winds continued overnight and we will still see the effects of Storm Erik today, as the deep low is still close to the Northern Isles, so gales will continue today, with showers affecting the north and west. Rain will move in across central and southern areas tonight, before becoming confined to the southeast on Sunday, otherwise winds easing and turning colder and brighter but with showers moving south. Next week turning drier and more settled for most as high pressure builds in from the west, with high pressure dominating through much of the week.
For now, windy for all this morning, winds gusting to 55-65mph across southern Scotland, N. Ireland, northern England and Wales, perhaps up to 70mph with exposure, 35-50mph gusts possible elsewhere. There will also be some heavy showers affecting northern and western areas, most frequent across northern England and western Scotland – where they may merge into longer spells of rain in places, with sleet and snow over highest ground of Scotland. For eastern areas it will be generally bright and dry with just the odd shower blowing through.
Longer spells of rain across the north this morning tending to become confined to northern Scotland this afternoon, with showers tending to ease and become more scattered across western areas with more in the way of brightness, while the strongest winds tending to east eastwards as Storm Erik moves away, but remaining windy for most. Eastern areas mostly staying dry and sunny through the afternoon, with just the odd shower passing through. Thickening cloud across the southwest of England later in the afternoon – with some rain arriving across Devon and Cornwall.
Temperatures reaching 7-9C generally, perhaps 10C across southern England, though feeling cooler than these temperatures suggest in the strong westerly wind.
Cloud and outbreaks of rain spreading northeast across southern England, south Wales and the Midlands tonight, outbreaks of rain continuing across the far north of Scotland, in between – clears spells across northern England, N. Ireland, central and southern Scotland, but with scattered showers continuing in the west.
Storm Erik will continue to move away across Scandinavia, while another complex low pressure system moves across the south, bringing outbreaks of rain, locally heavy, to start the day across central and southern Britain before the rain slowly clears east, perhaps turning to snow over hills across northern England and Wales as it clears, before the rain becomes confined to SE England and East Anglia to end the day. Further north, brighter and colder but windy conditions spreading south, another low dropping south will bring areas of showers with it down across Scotland, N. Ireland and eventually north Wales and N. England by evening. Showers will turn increasingly wintry, with snow over hills, as they clear south. A colder day than today as winds turn towards a more northerly direction. Afternoon temperatures reaching 6-7C generally, perhaps 8C in the southwest.
Rain or sleet and hill snow clearing southern areas during the first half of Sunday night, then clearing skies following across most areas in a northerly flow will mean a widespread frost developing by the end of the night for most. So a cold, bright and frosty start to Monday leading into mostly dry and sunny day, a strong northerly breeze towards the east, lighter in the west as high pressure builds in here, temperatures reaching 5-8C generally, perhaps 9-11C in the southwest.
High pressure builds in and dominates the weather next week, so mostly dry and settled, risk of overnight frost.
Then high pressure will generally be in control of our weather for the rest of the week, centred over the near continent. There will be an incursion of Atlantic fronts across the north on Tuesday, bringing cloudier skies and some patchy rain for a time and windier in the west. Otherwise, the rest of the week will be dry, fine and sunny by day, with temperatures close to or slightly above average generally, while clear skies overnight mean it will turn cold and frosty.