UK Weather - Chopping and changing. Mild then cold, more rain and a Windy end to the week
Quite a contrast this morning north south through the UK. Mild enough in the south at 11 or 12C but cold and frosty with ice for Scotland. There is plenty of rain about too as a low pressure moves across the UK today followed by another further north early tomorrow and a rather lively looking Atlantic low for Thursday night and Friday. It looks wet and windy but cold that day.
The milder air is within the warm sector of the first low pressure and temperatures in the southern half of the UK will lift to around 11 to 13C as the SE breeze veers to the SW. For Northern Ireland temperatures will reach 7 or 8C so cool, with the showery rain from the occlusion clearing away to the east at lunchtime. The leading edge of the frontal band is over the far north of England and southern Scotland with signs of sleet and snow over the highest tops as the rain hits the cold air. Most of Scotland is fine and sunny but much colder, with frost and ice to start the day. -8.6C was the inland minimum for Aberdeenshire.
The frontal rain is heading north and east today, with heavy rain for Wales and SW England especially the hills and moors. Also, the Midlands and NW England. later this afternoon the main rain band, the cold front will push across central southern England into East Anglia and SE England, so wet here in the evening.
For northern England into central Scotland the easterly wind will pick up and make it stay cold. Air temperatures will reach only 3 to 6C on a chilly day. The far north of mainland Scotland and the Islands stay dry and bright but as the rain reaches central Scotland it will be a miserable lunchtime. It stays showery with more cloud over western Britain even as the rain band moves eastwards and less mild, cloudy air tucks in from the west.
There is a lull overnight with drier and calmer weather. The cold air remains in the north but with more cloud and murk, temperatures should stay just above freezing for most. Further south still mild, in double figures with a SW breeze.
Thursday will be breezy and mild with temperatures widely into double figures in the SW wind. Rain bands approach from the west with a wet start over Northern Ireland, Scotland and the Isle of Man by dawn. The showery rain then continues for western Scotland, Cumbria and Wales without breaks elsewhere in the west and more cloud. Later in the day a trailing front will bring more rain from the SW.
This links to the more potent low pressure for Thursday night and Friday. This low pressure will deepen as it moves across the UK and could bring stormy conditions. There are some differences in the model’s development of this low. Our NMM doesn’t make so much of the feature but its still wet and windy. The Met Office warning matrix says unlikely but could have high impacts, and they are showing a deeper low, so gales, event severe gales for the north of Scotland. The Netweather model shows high gusts and strong westerly winds funnelling through the Central Belt of Scotland on Friday morning with potentially wild conditions around the Forth by lunchtime.
The main frontal rain will have gone through on Thursday night with more showery outbreaks continuing on Friday with blustery winds everywhere. It will feel colder. Depending on how the low deepens and moves through, the worst of the high winds should move away from NE Britain later on Friday, but it stays windy with gusts over 50mph for much of central and southern UK.
Don’t think that is it! Another low for Saturday looks to be heading our way with gales possible for southern Britain and even more rain from the west. Keep an eye on the forecast, if you are planning a Christmas shopping trip.