Easter weekend looks chilly, cold in the brisk winds and there is a risk of snow. not a certainty though. A look at how the Met Office warnings have been altered.
Thurs 29/03 The Met Office have issued a yellow warning for snow on Easter Monday as a band of potentially wintry weather is forecast to move northwards through the UK, Monday into Tuesday. The Met Office have recently upgraded their warning system with a few changes on their website and how they present the information to public broadcasters. There is a different situation now with BBC weather as the data, graphics and broadcasts are provided by Meteogroup, yet the UK severe weather warnings still come from the UK Met Office, "the UK National Meteorological Service, the Met Office is the official authority in the UK for generating weather forecasts and weather warnings". The weather services for the BBC have long been with the UK Met Office but on the last tender process the contract was awarded elsewhere; to Meteogroup "a European weather business, the global weather authority". There has been a slight jostling and emphasising of status by the Met Office around how their severe weather warnings should be output, just a clarifying of position, some might say. There was quite a delay in the new TV system appearing on our screens, but it did earlier this year, surprisingly just before the bitter cold and heavy snow event ‘Beast from the East' at the end of February. Not the easiest bedding in period.
How has the warnings system altered?
We now see 7 days ahead on the warning page as opposed to the previous 5 days. Day 6 and 7 aren't expected to be used too much, events such as ex-Hurricane Ophelia have been mentioned for this kind of lead time. There is a warning for Monday, nothing for Tuesday yet. Worth keeping an eye on this as people head back to work on Tuesday after the long weekend in Scotland. The Monday warning will give a heads-up to people travelling on the Bank Holiday
Details from 29/03 2pm. Click image for an updates
Warnings continue to be issued for Snow, Ice, Rain, Wind, Fog and now Thunderstorms and Lightning, two new categories. Some of these can be combined into dual warnings but overall "All warnings are given a colour (Yellow, Amber or Red) depending on a combination of both the impact the weather will have and the likelihood of those impacts occurring."
There is still some uncertainty about the band of rain and snow moving northwards on Monday/ early Tuesday which leads to a Yellow. Amber warnings need more certainty and a red warning, which essentially means don't go out would not be issued until much nearer an event, like at the end of Feb 2018.
So we keep the colour categories, the date and time stamping. The outlining of the areas is more robotic, not the smooth curving of before. Each warning has different sections of text now, and the Met Office do want you all to read the text. The warning is a diagram and accompanying text.
First part - what to expect?. Several days ahead this is hinting at a small chance of disruptive snow, more likely over the hills but on Monday a risk for much of Britain. Not certain, not necessarily white to low levels but a risk and due to it being a Bank holiday with people travelling, maybe longer distances, it's worth highlighting the possibility. The warnings are about the impacts of the weather.
Next - what should I do? a link for those who aren't in a hurry.
Finally - Further details.Which links to the areas, counties, regions affected and shows the familiar impacts/ likelihood matrix.
This Matrix is important. The Yellow warning is saying that heavy snow is actually unlikely (at the moment), yet there is still a possibility. Forecasting is not about certainties. If it does snow on Monday in these areas there will be high impacts because of the time of day and it being the end of a long weekend. Also if people are taking to the hills, such as the Brecon Beacons, Peaks for a bit of a ramble, this is just to highlight the weather could turn unpleasant.
It might mostly be rain with slushy snow over the hills. The Netweather MR (GFS based) model is siding with the snow at the moment.
In the further details part, this uncertainty is emphasised 29/03
As a weather system moves in from the south and comes up against cold air over the UK, there is the chance that rain could turn to heavy snow in places. Several cm of snow is possible, especially over hills, with drifting in strong winds. There is also the possibility of a few cm of wet snow gathering at lower levels. At present the extent and amounts of any snow are very uncertain, and it is quite possible that snow might not be too disruptive.
To compare, another matrix for snow, but for today and Good Friday, so with a shorter lead time. Still Yellow as impacts aren't expected to be large over NE Scotland.
These wintry showers are already visible on the Netweather Radar and will continue overnight.
The Met Office also state that they should be "able to issue warnings faster and therefore with shorter lead times when the weather is changing rapidly". They are trying to improve how the risk factor is communicated and will no longer use the phrases Be Aware, Be Prepared or Take Action .
The weather symbols inside the coloured triangles have been replaced by a multi-functioning exclamation mark.
These Met Office weather warnings are for public safety, "generated on behalf of UK government to minimise the loss of life and damage to property and infrastructure". Forecasting snow is tricky, we have cold air heading in from the NE this Easter weekend, some unsettled conditions and by this time of people want to be getting outside, or away for the holiday. Farmers and growers want to get going after the cold March, but the wintry weather may not have finished with the UK just yet.
