A change to colder and much less settled weather on the way this Christmas. Starting today in the north, but arriving in all parts by the end of Christmas day.
Wahey, it's Christmas Eve! Father Christmas is officially en route, and with the presents, he's also going to be bringing a change in our weather. Gone will be the nondescript but mild stuff and in its place some wind, rain and eventually a fall in temperature, which will mean snow for some.
Scotland and Northern Ireland are already seeing the start of that change with some rain having moved in from the northwest overnight - some of it heavy. It's blustery here too, in fact, there's a decent breeze blowing just about everywhere today. The rain will be moving further southeast during today, clearing the far north of Scotland and making it down into the far north of England during this afternoon.
To the south of it, it's a case of 'as you were', with plenty of cloud, a few brighter, sunnier spots, one or two showers in western parts, and it's mild. Not so bad for those last minute sprints to the shops to pick up all the things you've forgotten for the big day tomorrow. In case you need your mind jogging, some of the most commonly forgotten items are batteries, tinfoil, cranberry sauce and gravy.
Through the evening and overnight, the rain will struggle to make progress much further south; with another spell of it running in from the northwest to join the original band. That's going to mean rainfall totals do start to mount in western Scotland, along with northwest England and parts of Ireland. Enough to potentially cause some flooding - the 24 hour rainfall totals are shown below.
On Christmas day, the rain is going to take a while to get a move on. It'll start the day across southern Scotland, northern England, eastern Ireland and perhaps nudging into west Wales. Once it kicks into gear, it'll move east, reaching eastern England during the evening. Behind it, colder air, some showers (some wintry), and the trailing edge of the rain may turn wintry as well. So if you've had a flutter on a white Christmas, keep a close eye on that.
Ahead of the rain (sleet and snow), it'll be another mild but mostly cloudy day. Behind it, colder and clearer with a few showers blowing in on the west to northwest wind. Speaking of the wind, it'll be strong and squally as the rain moves through, with gales in exposed spots.
Christmas night sees the rain clearing through from eastern parts. That leaves us with a colder feel countrywide on Boxing day. There'll be some showers near to coasts, which'll be wintry at times, especially up over the high ground. Inland though, lots of winter sunshine.
Rain and strengthening winds will arrive into the southwest during the day though, as a low pressure approaches. There's still some uncertainty over the track of this, but as the rain edges further north into the evening and overnight, it'll bump into that colder air and bring some snow. The most likely risk zone will be central England and Wales, but until the track of the low is nailed down, it's going to be difficult to be precise.
All that will clear southeast during Wednesday, to leave us back in a similar boat to Boxing day, with wintry coastal showers and sunny spells elsewhere. Thursday looks set to start dry and bright too, but rain will arrive from the west, which again may turn to snow in places as it heads east, taking into Friday to clear away.
So it's reasonable to say that Christmas week is going to be bringing its fair share of weather, so please do stay tuned to the latest forecasts, especially if you have travel plans. For now, though, I'm off to open number 24 on my advent calendar and dig out a mince pie (or two). Merry Christmas!