Northern and western areas will see heavy and persistent rain today and on Wednesday. Mild air in the south and cold air to the north continue to push and shove. Strong winds tomorrow for Wales and England.
Today it’s about the rain and flood risk, tomorrow windy Wednesday. If you are looking for wintry hints and the chance of snow, the end of the week will be colder, but we’re still only in autumn.
It has been mild with Cheshire reaching nearly 17C yesterday. The far north of the UK keeps cooler air, but it will be another mild day. Temperatures are already at 11 or 12C for much of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, into SW Scotland. For the rest of northern Britain, it is cooler at 6 or 7, Shetland at only 2C in a cool east wind.
The SW breeze will continue for many, feeding in the mild air and temperatures this afternoon should reach 13 or 14, maybe a few 15Cs
We have frontal bands across southern Scotland and northern England this morning, the boundary between the cool and mild air. This was across Northern Ireland overnight and will head NE today, merging with the rain already over mainland Scotland and becoming heavier as the triple point moves towards western Scotland. Caithness and Sutherland already have flood alerts as heavy and persistent rain is forecast today. The cold front moves over Northern Ireland at lunchtime bringing more rain and then heads for NW Wales and NW England this afternoon. You can see on the forecast 24 hour rainfall totals chart, the areas looking likely to see the most rain.
For much of England, and Wales for a time there will be fine weather in between the fronts. In the warm sector will be the mild air and the cloud will break to give a bright day, not bad at all.
The low-pressure centre nears western Scotland and the SW winds begin to pick up especially for the western approaches. It will become windy overnight, with the cold air still in the far north of mainland Britain and staying mild for most.
By Wednesday morning we have fine dry but windy weather over much of southern Britain, with gales around SW coasts and gusts of 60mph. More rain for Wales continuing to feed in from the Irish Sea. There is a Yellow Be Aware warning from the Met Office for heavy rain over northern England, mainly Cumbria and Lancs. To the north of this will be cooler air, creeping southwards.
The strongest winds and gales for exposed parts will be over Wales and the West country on Wednesday morning. Then along the English Channel and for North Sea coasts, the strong south winds will continue. Inland it will be windy with strong gusts, over 50mph. By the evening the winds will have eased for Wales, but it will be wet, and it will remain windy around SE Britain
We have this succession of low pressures and weather fronts moving across the UK midweek. These bring persistent rain for some, strong winds but as they clear on Thursday things become a bit more settled for central UK and the cold air which has been lurking in the far north gets a clear run south. So, we draw down colder Arctic air, temperatures fall and the night time frost return.
During Thursday there could be significant snowfall for northern Scotland. 10 to 20cm over the NW Highlands and Cairngorms, with some to lower levels around the Great Glen and Grampian. In the far south of the UK, a band of rain could move across southern England, keeping the mild air for another day.
Even into the weekend, there is a battle between the cold air over much of the UK and mild air clinging on in the south. Bands of rain continue to wave in from the west so there could be some wintriness mixed in and also snow showers from the NW in the colder flow.
Flood warnings
https://floodline.sepa.org.uk/floodupdates/
https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/warnings
