1. The third named storm of the season, Storm Brian, is currently an intense depression over the North Atlantic to the SW of Ireland under the developmental left exit of a 150mph+ jet streak.
2. Brian can be classed as a ‘weather bomb’, a storm where the central pressure drops 24mb or more in 24 hours. Brian had, in fact, dropped 41mb between 6am yesterday when it was over the NW Atlantic and 6am this morning.
3. Fortunately the deep depression is at its most intense phase today, before it fills/weakens as it crosses Ireland and northern Britain, as the depression ‘disconnects’ or moves away from the jet stream. However, it will still deliver gales or severe gales to southern areas tomorrow.
4. UK wind warnings: the strongest winds from Brian will be across southern Ireland, Wales, southern and central England. The Met Office have a yellow wind warning in place for SW England, Wales, NW England, West Midlands, East Midlands, SE England and East of England. They expect gusts of 45-55mph widely within their warning areas, with gusts of 60-70mph along exposed southern and western coastal areas.
5. Ireland wind warnings: Met Eireann have Status Orange wind warnings for southern and western coastal areas, with winds strengthening as they veer west to northwesterly to bring gusts of 68-80mph along southern and western coastal areas. Elsewhere across Ireland, gusts of up to 68mph are possible.
6. Impacts: These strong gusts could bring some transport disruption during Saturday and temporarily disrupt power supplies. There could also be some damage to trees and some tree brought down in places.
7. Coastal flooding: Storm Brian will bring high surf and coastal flooding to southern Ireland and SW England. In addition, high spring tides combined with the large swell and strong onshore winds created by Brian may allow the sea to overtop sea defences along southern and western coasts. This may occur as early this evening with any high tides in this area, then subsequent high tides through Saturday. Please see the current flood warnings in places below:
8. Heavy rainfall is also expected from the passage of Brian, Met Eireann have a Status Yellow rainfall warning for southern and western areas of Ireland, where they expect accumulations of 30 to 50mm. Models indicate that higher parts of west Wales, NW England and SW Scotland could also see 30-50mm by the end of Saturday, perhaps more in a few spots, but no Met Office warnings for rain have been issued.