The ex-tropical remnants of Hurricane Gert will sit as an area of low pressure close to the west and eventually northwest of the UK this week. Initially the low will drag warm and humid air from the south on Tuesday. This will mean it will turn quite a lot warmer then we’ve experienced for some time across England and Wales, but only briefly, before a cold front sweeping east on Wednesday brings cooler and fresher conditions back in across all parts.
Heat and humidty spread north this evening and Tuesday, before cooler and fresher conditions return from the west on Wednesday
Tuesday will start rather unpromisingly misty and murky across England and Wales, as warm and humid air spreads north following rain clearing north across Scotland during the morning. However, the morning mist, fog and low cloud should lift and the sun will pop out, with temperatures reaching 22-24C widely across England and Wales. Where the sun is more prolonged across south Wales, central and southern England – we could see temperatures reach 27C. The highest temperature recorded so far this month was 25.4C at Cavendish in Suffolk on August 17th.
Before the 15th of August, nowhere in the UK recorded a temperature in excess of 25C, with the jet stream tracking unseasonably far south - bringing cool and changeable weather, with temperatures between the 1st and 15th generally below average by around 1C. Despite still having the highest temperatures most days in that period, central southern and southeast England saw the most below average temperatures, with the period 1st-13th the coldest since 1987 according to Met Office provisional figures.
Although it will be very warm and humid and eventually sunny across the south on Tuesday, the far north and northwest will see rain at first clearing before heavy rain and thunderstorms develop and move in across Ireland and N. Ireland during the afternoon and evening before spreading northeast across Scotland, N England and north Wales Tuesday night, as the cold front moves in from the west. The heavy rain and thunderstorms across the north continuing into Wednesday before clear away eastward with cold front into the afternoon. Drier further south, but cooler and fresher conditions across all parts by mid-afternoon.
Then England and Wales are looking mostly dry and bright or sunny on Thursday and Friday. Scotland, Ireland and N. Ireland seeing showers or longer spells of rain, these perhaps affecting NW England and north Wales on Friday too.
As we head through the Bank Holiday Weekend, naturally some uncertainty at 5-7 days away, but hints from both GFS and ECM of showers, perhaps thundery, spreading in across southern England and East Anglia on Saturday and maybe lingering into Sunday morning before clearing as pressure rises and it becomes dry for the rest of Sunday and into Bank Holiday Moonday. Much of Wales, Midlands and parts of northern England look dry for much of the weekend, though risk of rain later on Monday. Showers for Saturday across Scotland and parts of N England, drier on Sunday, before cloud and rain moves in off the Atlantic across Scotland, N Ireland and N England on Monday – though for Scotland there is no Bank Holiday on Monday, a school or work day!