The weather is on the turn for the Bank Holiday weekend. We have had a long run of sunny, warm and dry weather. This week brings a few heavy showers, before a westerly change at the weekend.
It’s been dry, sunny and often warm for weeks now. There is a Bank Holiday weekend coming up, so guess what the UK weather is going to do? Yes, a change is on the way.
We have seen a very dry spring so far with messages from water companies about water usage and warnings from fire and rescue teams about the very high risk of fires spreading.
A May Bank Holiday weekend is usually a time for more people to head outside if the weather is fine. If it’s going to be miserable and wet then DIY store visits increase instead.
There is rain in the forecast this week. Showery outbreaks for parts of the UK in the next few days, but not for everyone. By the weekend, it looks like the flow will be from the Atlantic with the potential for a frontal system to sweep in. That would bring the first widespread, proper rainfall in many weeks and be followed by blustery showers from the west with sunny spells.
Monday
The high pressure which brought fine weather over the weekend is just retreating towards Iceland. An upper cold pool of air will bring instability, as the sunshine heats the ground under the clearer slots and then showers form.
The convective forecast highlights “heavy showers and some thunderstorms across SW Scotland, NW England, N. Ireland, Rep. of Ireland and perhaps Wales this afternoon. Hail and localised flooding are possible.”
There is a gentle easterly flow but towards western Britain, there will be convergence zones later today with uplift and heavy showers forming. Many parts will stay dry and bright, with more sunshine appearing. However, if you do see a downpour it could be heavy, even thundery. Tonight the showers will fade, it will be calm and clear with temperatures falling away into single figures. Low cloud will reappear off the North Sea.
Tuesday becomes another lovely day with temperatures into the low twenties in the south. Heavy showers begin to develop for Northern Ireland, north Wales, SW Scotland, NW England and then a few more across Wales and central England as the afternoon progresses. The focus is the SW quadrant of the UK and also Ireland. Glasgow should reach 21C (70F) and Cambridge 20C with sunny spells.
Overnight it will turn wetter over southern Ireland and rain will edge over Wales and southwest England. Later in the day, the well-scattered showers begin to drift over southern Britain. Again many areas stay dry and fine.
The UKV model has a cool northerly breeze off the North Sea with sunshine for much of eastern Britain. There will be a few hefty showers from Morecambe Bay down to Suffolk but through the afternoon the focus for most of the shower activity is over southern Britain with fine sunny weather elsewhere.
This northerly flow will bring the UK back to that chilly edge to the air in the shade and after dark but still feeling very warm in the strong May sunshine.
With a low centred over southern Sweden, showers begin to flow down the North Sea. There is some uncertainty about how many will move over eastern Britain or if most will stay offshore. With the focus from the northeast, this cooler northern flow will be a feature for eastern Britain on Thursday and Friday but for many, there will be more dry, fair weather. It will feel cold by night but daytime temperatures will be in the high teens, maybe a few spots reaching 20 or 21C.
Plenty more dry, bright weather to come but just a few hefty showers to watch out for.
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