January 2026 is looking set to have a mean temperature slightly below the most recent 30-year average (1991-2020) for much of the UK, but slightly above the old 1961-1990 average. The reasons for this are the cold bright first week when northerly winds brought snow for some, and the persistent south-easterly winds in the second half. Although it has not been cold enough for snow at low levels in the second half, due to the winds being predominantly southerly or south-easterly rather than easterly, they have often been bringing in continental air, resulting in temperatures only ending up around average, rather than substantially above average.
With the jet stream having been stuck largely in the same place through the second half, sending lows towards western Britain that have then tended to stall close to the British Isles, most areas have had a very dull and wet second half of January.
Overall, it looks set to come out as a very wet January for much of the country, with the exception of north-west Scotland, which has been relatively dry due to a relative lack of the usual mild and moist south-westerlies. Provisionally the Met Office suggests that Northern Ireland and southern England will come out especially wet relative to the long-term normal. Sunshine, however, is set to end up not far from (though mostly rather below) normal for most, as the cold northerlies early in the month brought most areas plenty of sunshine, coming close to offsetting the predominantly dull weather in the second half of the month.
The southerly tracking jet stream was also associated with a destructive storm over Portugal on 27/28 January, named Kristin, which led to widespread structural damage, landslides, flooding and power cuts. The storm arrived via a secondary depression that tracked to the south of a low that filled close to the west of Britain, running from west to east across the north of Spain and Portugal. The weather will stay wet and unsettled over Spain and Portugal for the foreseeable future, with the jet stream continuing to take a southerly track as it heads into western Europe.
Meanwhile, much of eastern North America is currently having a very cold northerly blast, while, in contrast, after very cold weather a week ago, much of Canada is now unusually mild for the time of year. The outlook for the next 7-10 days is for eastern North America to continue having repeated northerly outbreaks, while the west of North America will generally be very mild for the time of year, with frequent southerly and south-westerly winds.
A fortnight ago, it was looking quite possible that a cold east to north-easterly flow could push the cold air over Russia all the way west to Britain, bringing snowfalls. As we got close to the event, however, the forecast models increasingly shifted to showing a south-easterly, which is why most of us ended up getting "cold rain" rather than snow.
During the next 5 to 10 days, it looks probable that the Scandinavian blocking high that we have seen for most of the second half of January will retrogress westwards towards Greenland. Many forecast model runs currently have this resulting in the low pressure to the west of Britain subsiding and bringing in more of an east to north-easterly flow, which could turn cold enough to bring snow showers to eastern Britain (due to cold air masses passing over the relatively warm North Sea, generating instability) as well as snowfalls on the northern and eastern flank of any frontal systems pushing in from the west and south.
However, it is also possible that this could go the same way as the previous attempt at a cold easterly. The GFS (Global Forecast System) ensembles at 00Z today showed quite a lot of support for the low pressure staying firmly positioned to the south-west of Britain, which would maintain a continuation of the dull wet regime that has persisted for most of the past fortnight, with the cold Russian air moving westwards to the north of the British Isles and largely missing us. The European ECMWF model currently shows the strongest support for the cold easterly sending very cold air our way, while the Met Office model is currently showing outputs that are more similar to the GFS. Thus, there is still considerable uncertainty over whether this cold easterly will materialise or not.
Another "wildcard" is the potential for a sudden stratospheric warming event to arise towards mid-February, although this would only be likely to tip the balance of probabilities towards cold and potentially snowy later in the month.
It is unusual for such a stagnant blocking pattern to persist for this long, which goes a long way towards explaining why some parts of Britain have been experiencing exceptional rainfall totals.
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