January 2026 has been an exceptionally wet month for much of the UK, with some regions receiving more than triple their average monthly rainfall. Following a record-dry 2025. This heavy rain has been welcome in redressing the lack of rain last year, but because there’s been much more than usual falling in a short space of time, it has caused widespread flooding.
Rainfall totals in mm over England, Wales and N. Ireland since 1st January, courtesy of Starling Roost Weather
January started with an arctic plunge bringing a cold spell with fairly widespread snowfall before a transition into the current more unsettled, wet period dominated by Atlantic low-pressure systems.
Storms Goretti and Ingrid in mid January arrived in quick succession. Storm Goretti causing significant disruption in Cornwall, with 99mph gusts bringing down masses of trees and causing power cuts to tens of thousands of homes, marking one of the most impactful storms for the region in over 30 years.
Storm Ingrid then brought huge waves causing damage to a sea wall next to the main railway line near Dawlish in Devon, washing away a historic pier and hitting homes in a beauty spot. Storm Goretti brought significant rainfall, particularly to parts of southwest Wales and eastern England.The highest rainfall total was recorded in Cornwall, which saw 61.8mm fall at Colliford Dam, followed by 57mm Ddolwen Bridge, Dyfed, and 54mm at White Barrow in Devon. This on top of the rain brought by Goretti across SW England means the ground became saturated before this week when a lot more rain arrived with Storm Chandra across southern and western areas of the UK.
Storm Chandra brought record-breaking daily rainfall to southern and western areas. White Barrow in Devon recorded 115.1 mm from the storm, with other parts of Devon seeing 65-75mm. 100.8mm of rain fell at Katesbridge (County Down) in Northern Ireland on Tuesday, bringing its wettest January day ever, smashing its previous January record of 38.2mm.
There are currently 67 flood warnings, mostly in Dorset, Wiltshire, Somerset and Gloucestershire, following nearly 3 times the January rainfall average falling across parts of SW England so far this month.
Much of the UK has had a welcome dry respite yesterday and again today, however, there’s more rain on the way tomorrow and through the weekend and, it looks like low pressure will be close by to the southwest next week too, bringing more rain.
Rainfall amounts tomorrow and through the weekend are not generally looking anywhere near as high as those brought by Storm Chandra, perhaps 15-25mm across southern and western areas along with higher ground in the north of England, perhaps locally 30-40mm over high ground in the southwest. Though parts of eastern Scotland could see 40-70mm. Even so, though rainfall amounts won’t be too high generally, falling on already saturated ground and with highest rainfall totals falling on areas already seeing flooding, there is a risk of further flooding.
With low pressure close to the southwest, further rain looks to push in from the south or southwest early next week, reaching most areas, generally rain heaviest and most persistent towards the south and west, though with a southeasterly or easterly flow in the north picking up moisture off the North Sea, like this week, higher ground of eastern Scotland could again see the largest rainfall totals. Snow rather than rain falling over high ground in the north too, as cold air spreads over the North Sea from the east at times.
Low pressure close to the southwest next week
There is a signal that high pressure will build from the north and northeast the weekend following next week, so we may finally start to see the train of Atlantic lows moving in close to the west and southwest start to be pushed away further south, taking its rain with it, though showers, perhaps increasingly wintry, may plague eastern coasts.
With high pressure building to the north, the models have been predicting, albeit still at range, the potential for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Both 00z EC and GFS going for a split polar vortex following a SSW in early February. GFS ensembles have now gone up to 55% for a SSW on weatheriscool, though EC takes longer to split than GFS, not until around 12-13 Feb.
There could be QTR (quick tropospheric response) to downwelling of the reversal from a SSW too, GFS hints at this. This could reinforce high latitude blocking which looks to develop around Iceland and Greenland before the SSW potentially occurs, which combined with low pressure to the south, could pull in much colder air from the east or northeast through the first half of February. But confidence is low on a SSW definitely occurring and what the consequences on our weather patterns will be. So watch this space.
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