The weekend won’t be as mild as it has been in the middle of the week. In the southerly flow, temperatures reached 18.6C in Chivenor, Devon on Wednesday, and much of the UK is feeling very mild on Thursday. There will be a change in wind direction by Friday night with air coming off the Atlantic rather than from France and Spain. It will still feel quite mild for this time of year, closer to average but not as warm as it has been.
If you are looking for colder Arctic air with frost and perhaps snow showers for the Scottish mountains, then it looks like the following weekend (mid-November) will be of interest when a colder northerly flow arrives.
For those out watching fireworks and thinking how mild it was, Teddington in west London stayed at 14.4C °C, its minimum temperature. This was record-breaking for Bonfire Night, being so mild. “The previous record for the night of 5th-6th November was 13.9℃ at Gordon Castle, Scotland, in 1938.” MO
The southerly breeze is breaking up the cloud cover over the UK, allowing areas of bright, even sunny spells mixed with lingering grey and damp parts. Western Scotland will see the showery outbreaks clearing away northwards. East Anglia will keep a few outbreaks of rain into Thursday afternoon as showers move northwards over Wales.
Small clusters of showers will move northwards in the mild flow but for many it will be a fine Thursday and a settled night. Temperatures on Thursday will be reaching into the high teens, as Friday stays settled in the mid-teens.
On Friday, a new Atlantic low will push its weather fronts into SW Britain. With the supermoon this week, there remains the risk of coastal flooding around the spring tides.
“Local flooding is possible but not expected from coastal/tidal on the South West and South coasts of England tomorrow. Land, roads and some properties may flood and there may be travel disruption.” Env.Agency
It will be another mixed day with bright or sunny spells, a few showers for London and the Home Counties to start the day. These will edge northwards up to M1 to Lincolnshire and the Humber by lunchtime. Southeasterly winds will pick up as the frontal rain reaches Cornwall and Devon before midday with showers ahead over Northern Ireland.
The rain will spill over more of southern England and Wales during the day with the showery outbreaks for Northern Ireland turning to more persistent frontal rain later. Northern Ireland could see some heavy rain overnight with the UKV highlighting spells of rain on Friday night.
The last of this rain will be clearing northwards along the west coast of Scotland, over the Islands. Much of the UK will see a fine start on Saturday. There is some uncertainty about when showery rain will approach from the west during the day, over Ireland and perhaps again into SW Britain. Saturday could be fine for most but there could be low cloud and patchy rain for western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Winds will only be light and in sunny spells, it will feel mild.
For Remembrance Sunday, there will be a new frontal band bringing rain in from the west after a cooler night for Britain.
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