Brief blip in the southwest before fine and settled conditions resume

March came in like a lamb and went out like a lamb, with the anticyclonic conditions that dominated much of last month looking to continue through much of the first half of April too. 

However, there will be a brief blip to our long spell of fine weather, with the threat of rain, later today and overnight into tomorrow - but only really across SW England and Wales. 

The first signs of this change are visible over the English Channel this morning, with thicker cloud and outbreaks of a showery rain pushing north towards southern England. But most of the UK is enjoying blue skies, a chilly start across Scotland though.

It will turn cloudier across southern Britain through the day, as an occluded frontal system pushes north, but it’s only really southwest and central southern England & Wales most likely to see some showery rain pushing north through this afternoon and evening, reaching southern Ireland too, turning heavy in places. A few bursts of  rain may also reach the west Midlands and southern parts of Northern Ireland too overnight into Friday morning.

After a cloudy start across southern and western areas, with some patchy rain in the southwest, it should turn sunnier from the east across most areas from late morning and through the afternoon, warmer tomorrow too in the south, temperatures look to widely reach 20-22C here in the sunshine, it could reach 23C somewhere across southern England. Cooler further north, particularly towards North Sea coasts - with an onshore easterly wind, but sheltered western coastal areas in the northwest could reach the mid to high teens. 

A plume of Sahara dust spreading up from the south tomorrow could make the sunshine more hazy though, could also make the sunrise and sunset more colourful.

Turning a little cooler over the weekend, as high pressure centred to the north and eventually northeast of Scotland pulls in cooler air from the east. But it will be generally fine and settled with pleasantly warm sunshine sheltered from the easterly breeze, which will be strongest in the south and west. Cool along North Sea coasts, with North Sea temperatures still in single digits, could also be some low cloud affecting northern and eastern areas lapping off the North Sea. It will turn chilly overnight though - thanks to the dry continental air, so gardeners beware, with a risk of a slight frost in places inland, especially in the north.

Little change next week - high pressure looks to continue to dominate our weather throughout, so mostly fine and settled. Warm in the sunshine sheltered from the cool breeze - which will be strongest towards North Sea coasts. Perhaps some low cloud at times towards the east and northeast. Highest temperatures look to be towards the west, with the breeze from the east early in the week, before turning more northeasterly or northerly later in the week - as high pressure migrates westwards. Despite the pleasantly warm days, chilly overnight, with a risk of ground frost in places with clear skies. 

There are currently signs of a change from the recent anticylonic conditions around mid-month showing from current and recent model runs. More unsettled and mobile conditions from the northwest may develop across all parts, with spells of rain or showers spreading east or southeast  around the weekend of the 12th/13th. But low confidence on this change for now, particularly when the change may start, likely Scotland sees the first signs of this change by the end of next week before reaching all parts over that weekend. But a very dry and sunny first half of April is looking likely.