The pendulum of spring weather swings on, with remarkable sunshine persisting despite our temperature roller coaster. Looking ahead, the oscillation shows no signs of stopping as we approach late March.
The see-saw spring weather is set to continue into next week. Following an exceptionally warm and sunny first week of March for most regions, we shifted into a colder north to north-easterly pattern with sunshine and scattered showers, some wintry in places. This weekend looks to be dry and quite cold, with many areas enjoying considerable sunshine today, although tomorrow will likely be cloudier, especially in the south and east.
Next week, temperatures will rise again as we experience a south to south-easterly airflow drawing in warm air masses. Between Tuesday and Thursday, conditions could become warm and sunny for many regions. If this alternation between dry sunny weather and sunshine with showers persists, March could potentially be exceptionally sunny overall.
It's increasingly evident that our climate is warmer than before, with this warming superimposed on normal temperature fluctuations. In the long-running Central England Temperature series from 1659, which broadly represents the English Midlands, mean temperatures rose 6 to 7C above the 1961-1990 average during the warm spell between the 7th and 9th. The past week, characterized by frequent northerly winds, was typically just a degree or two below the 1961-90 average. (While we generally use the most recent 30-year normal ending in "0"—currently 1991-2020—for reporting monthly temperature deviations from "normal," the 1961-90 period is often maintained when analyzing long-term climate changes).
I strongly believe that had this northerly outbreak occurred before 2005 (when we first observed rapid warming in the Arctic region north of Scandinavia and Russia), snow showers would likely have been far more widespread. While some areas experienced snow at low elevations last week, most saw only rain, sleet, and hail, with temperatures slightly too warm for snow. Historically, March snowfalls have been quite common, though with a greater tendency for rapid melting in sunshine compared to winter months. In some parts of the country, there have been historical periods when sleet/snow was more common in March than in December.
With weather patterns alternating between dry sunny conditions and sunshine with showers, this March has been exceptionally sunny across most of the country so far. This weekend and next week could bring additional sunny days for many regions, though sunshine will likely be more variable than during the first week of March.
Recently, we experienced a major stratospheric warming event (likely a final stratospheric warming rather than a sudden stratospheric warming). The spring impacts of these events vary, but they generally correlate with below-average sea level pressure over and south of Britain, and increased high pressure to the north. This configuration is associated with the jet stream moving further south than typical, bringing spells of wet and often cloudy weather to much of the UK, though the north and west of Scotland often experience relatively dry and sunny conditions in this scenario.
Current medium and long-range models indicate this pattern may emerge during the last week of March, potentially causing a significant decrease in sunshine and resulting in less exceptional March sunshine totals overall. Nevertheless, the odds still favor a considerably sunnier than average March for most regions, due to the exceptional sunshine during the first fortnight.
With increased blocking highs around Greenland and Iceland, we may also experience cold northerly winds toward the end of March and into early April. Northerly winds can deliver late snowfalls during this period. The first half of April 2021 experienced two northerly systems that brought widespread snow, and even during the generally warm spring of 2022, widespread snow showers occurred from a northerly outbreak between March 30 and April 1. However, with the Arctic likely to be generally warmer than normal and low pressure forecast near Britain as April approaches, we may not receive enough cold Arctic air to produce widespread snow.
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