High pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern, blocking milder Atlantic air from making significant progress eastwards. Cold air remains firmly in place across Britain, with limited breaks in the cloud bringing little respite from the persistent gloom.
OVERVIEW After reading Tuesday's blog by Nick Finnis on snow-less winter easterlies in recent years, I suppose we should be thankful we haven't got much snow at the moment to go with the persistent gloom. And little seems to be changing as milder air, trying to move in from the South West, engages in a stalemate over the coming days with cold air still currently ensconced over much of Britain.
Earlier in the month, most models were confident it would turn milder from the South West by mid-February, but with high pressure still stubbornly 'anchored' to the North and East, there are few signs of this happening before the weekend. So with Atlantic systems only likely to affect the far West and South West, it remains much the same. But there'll be subtle changes, with a weak ridge giving somewhat lighter winds than of late in the East. Skies should also brighten a little, but most of the breaks will be in the North and North West, with any sunshine in the East continuing to be limited.
After dark, little changes, with a good deal of overcast, damp, misty weather. Across Northern Ireland, a weak Atlantic system may give some rain, but any elsewhere will be light and patchy, giving a 'dusting' of snow on hills above about 400 or 500 metres. But skies will also break here and there, mostly over Scotland and in the West, and where they do so, you can expect a slight frost and perhaps some patchy fog by morning. Winds remain mostly light from a North Easterly quarter, with minimum temperatures in the range -2 to +3C depending on cloud cover.
Pressure remains high to the North on Thursday, with a ridge extending into the North Sea. This'll have the effect of turning the winds more into the East or South East, that may begin to introduce somewhat drier air off the continent. As a result, there'll be a better chance of skies breaking even in places that haven't seen the sun for some time. But cloud amounts will remain very variable, with the best of the sunshine probably over Scotland and in the North and West.
The emphasis will be on dry weather, but with weak Atlantic fronts perhaps giving a little rain in the far South West. It'll continue to feel cold in the wind, but it'll feel pleasant enough where you have shelter in any sunshine. After a touch of frost in places early, temperatures should reach around 4 to 8C once more.
Winds may freshen a little across Northern Ireland and towards the South West after dark, where Atlantic systems may try to make inroads. These'll bring some rain and maybe hill snow, but the fronts will be weakening and shouldn't make much progress. Elsewhere it'll continue mainly dry with a mix of clear spells and cloud. It'll turn misty in places with a slight frost and a few fog patches forming where skies remain clear. Lowest temperatures -2 to +2C, but it'll be milder in the far West although not feeling so in a freshening South Easterly wind.
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