Still quiet but more sun this week once any fog clears - Hints of a cold northerly by the weekend

This Monday there is a crisp coolness in the air but the sunshine has returned. By next Monday we could be in a cold northerly flow from the Arctic with snow in the forecast. Before that, the UK will see another settled week with Spain waiting for more heavy rain.

There has been a shift for the start of the new working week. Finally, there is sunshine to be enjoyed after the dull, grey weather. This cloak of Stratocumulus cloud still extends over northern mainland Europe and southern Scandinavia. High pressure will establish itself over the UK again this week but with only pockets of cloud rather than a whole blanket trapped. There will be mist and fog making it seem more autumnal. A scattering of showers will reach SE England on Tuesday before a weak weather front swings over Scotland on Tuesday night bringing wet weather to western Scotland midweek.

This frontal band links to a low pressure moving by Greenland to Svalbard way up in the Arctic Circle. We are not being troubled by the usual autumn storms as the jetstream buckles northwards around the high pressure. Once more a cut-off upper low will form near Iberia, this time to the southwest. There is more movement this time with a shift later in the week but still, eastern Spain will have to brace itself for more heavy rain with thunderstorms. AEMET, the Spanish Met. Service again has rain warnings for the Balearic Islands and Majorca.

‘With uncertainties, the most likely scenario for next week, starting late Tuesday and especially Wednesday and Thursday, is precipitation that may be heavy, extensive and persistent.’ AEMET Valencia

Another DANA setup will scare the people of Spain after the events around October 29th. This setup, although with heavy rain does not have the same amount of energy. There will be colder air from the north with warm, humid air from the east, off the Mediterranean

‘although rainfall will likely be widespread and locally persistent, with strong intensity, we will not see the intensities or accumulations of two weeks ago.’

There is great uncertainty in the forecast and concern. There is still so much damage and mess from the flooding at the end of October. Valencia and Malaga both have heavy rain forecast which will bring great unease.

Here in the UK, we will be thankful for quiet weather as we stick under the high pressure. The winds will be light just the North Sea coasts of East Anglia and Kent keeping a northerly wind tonight. That will bring enough stirring in the atmosphere to keep temperatures up whereas inland there will be a touch of frost in places and fog. 

This mixed pattern will continue over the next few days for the UK; mostly light winds and dry weather but with areas of low cloud or lingering fog interrupting the welcome sunshine. Daytime temperatures will be around 10 to 12C, perhaps up to 14C this week in any lengthy sunshine.

What is catching the eye for next weekend is a potential northerly plunge. As a low pressure out of Greenland heads eastwards towards western Norway on Friday night, it could open up an Arctic northerly flow towards the UK. High pressure out over the northern Atlantic will steady this setup through the weekend and it looks set to last into the following week. 

Does this mean snow? Well yes, IF this northerly flow sets in. As usual, it will be the high ground and exposed northern regions of Scotland that would be most likely to see lying snow. Brisk winds would bring snow showers to Northern Ireland, Cumbria and Snowdonia but if a low pressure were to develop, wintry weather could affect a wider swathe of Britain. There is a strengthening theme for next week to be much colder, a main ingredient for UK snow but it’s too far ahead for EXACTLY where and when, away from the Scottish mountains.